Xiong Jingnan vs Julia Polastri Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Xiong Jingnan

edge

Julia Polastri

Striking

Polastri ▸

Polastri out-strikes Jingnan (thin sample)

Effective offense

C

46th

1.5

+53

A+

98th

3.5

Defense

F

3rd

38%

+48

C

50th

59%

KO power

D

11 KO

0.0 KD

+9

D

5 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

F

5th

0.0

+27

D

32nd

0.6

Takedown accuracy—75%

Takedown defense

75%

62%

Control time

F

3rd

0.1 min

+28

D

31st

1.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Polastri ▸

Polastri is the bigger submission threat on Jingnan (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

15th

0.0

+28

C

43rd

0.2

Sub win rate

C

48th

5%

1 sub

+15

B

63rd

21%

3 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

5%

Even

C

43rd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finish at a similar career clip — Jingnan 63% (12/19), Polastri 57% (8/14) of wins.

Finish rate (of wins)

63% (12/19)

57% (8/14)

By KO/TKO

11

5

By submission

1

3

Avg finish round

R2.2 avg finish

R2.1 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

Polastri ▸

Polastri pushes the higher work rate over the fight (thin sample)

Work rate / min — full fight

4.8

6.9

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.8

6.4

Pace trend—+7%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Jingnan

Jingnan is in better recent form than Polastri (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

0%

40%

After a win—0%

Last 5

80%

40%

Win streakL1L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Polastri ▸

Polastri has faced the tougher schedule vs Jingnan (thin sample)

Schedule strength

67%

41%

Win quality

0%

47%

Ranked opponents

1

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Polastri ▸

Polastri is fresher and more active than Jingnan

Last bout

3mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

1

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Jingnan 5 cm · Polastri 10y younger · Switch-stance wrinkle

Xiong JingnanvsJulia Polastri

38

Age

10y

younger

28

5'4"

163cm

Height

2"

taller

5'2"

157cm

63"

160cm

Reach

Even

63"

160cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Xiong JingnanJulia Polastri

Percentile

Striking/min4.536.22

Accuracy%34%56%

Defense%38%59%

Takedowns/150.00.6

TD defense%75%57%

Submissions/150.00.3

Career rate as a percentile within the women's strawweight (99 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Comparable level of opposition — both faced slates around .619 opponent win rate.

Xiong Jingnan

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

162-98-3

.623 win rate

Winning-record opponents

12 of 21

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

21

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Julia Polastri

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

107-67-1

.615 win rate

Winning-record opponents

7 of 13

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

13

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 13m ago

Xiong Jingnan

Consensus

31%▼ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Jingnan

Kalshi32¢Sportsbook+21031%

Julia Polastri

Consensus

68%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Polastri

Kalshi68¢bestSportsbook-25869%

Jingnan 31%68% Polastri

$3k vol · $2k OI$4k vol · $4k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Xiong Jingnan

7%+1000

3%+2500

20%+300

Julia Polastri

8%+900

10%+700

51%-175

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Xiong Jingnan

7%+1000

3%+2500

20%+300

Julia Polastri

8%+900

10%+700

51%-175

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over75%-356
Under25%+289

Goes the distance

Yes73%-325
No27%+250

UFC betting history

Career

JingnanXiong Jingnan

PolastriJulia Polastri

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi67%68%1 pt

Sportsbook65%67%2 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

JingnanXiong Jingnan

Stat

PolastriJulia Polastri

—

0

KO / TKO

1

0

—

0

Submission

0

—

1

Decision

1

3

15:00

Avg fight time

14:35

Xiong Jingnan’s splits

vs Polastri

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-10%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Julia Polastri’s splits

vs Jingnan

vs Orthodox

2-340%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

1-325%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Xiong JingnanvsJulia Polastri

38

Age

10y

younger

28

5'4"

163cm

Height

2"

taller

5'2"

157cm

63"

160cm

Reach

Even

63"

160cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

D

29th

+30

B

59th

Polastri holds a decisive striking edge (+30).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Jingnan’s offensevsPolastri’s defense

Head

C

53rd

34.9

+21

D

32nd

43.4

Body

B

63rd

15.4

+40

F

23rd

18.3

Leg

B

64th

10.4

+23

D

41st

10.2

Polastri’s offensevsJingnan’s defense

Head

A

82nd

47.8

+63

F

19th

47.8

Body

A+

86th

20.7

+73

F

14th

21.5

Leg

A

71st

11.5

+8

B

63rd

7.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Xiong Jingnan	around division average34.9	23%	well below average47.8	33
Head	Julia Polastri	top 18% of division47.8	48%	below division average43.4	269
Body	Xiong Jingnan	above division average15.4	62%	bottom of the division21.5	21
Body	Julia Polastri	top 14% of division20.7	79%	well below average18.3	122
Leg	Xiong Jingnan	above division average10.4	78%	above division average7.5	14
Leg	Julia Polastri	top 29% of division11.5	90%	below division average10.2	63

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Xiong Jingnan

Julia Polastri

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

49th

Even

C

45th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

47th

0.0

+8

D

39th

0.6

Takedown accuracy

—

75%

3/4

Takedown defense

75%

3/4

C

49th

62%

16/26

Submission threat

C

56th

0.0

Even

C

53rd

0.2

Control time

C

43rd

0.1 min

Even

D

41st

1.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Xiong Jingnan	Julia Polastri
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	0.63
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	—0 / 0	75%3 / 4
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	75%3 / 4	62%16 / 26
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.21
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.1 min0:07	1.8 min8:56
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.1 min2:06	3.4 min16:31

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Xiong Jingnan

29

Schedule Score

Julia Polastri

41

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

15 min

1 bout

Octagon time

58 min

more

73 min

5 bouts

Schedule strength

67%

41%

Win quality

0%

47%

Ranked opponents

1

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Xiong Jingnan	Julia Polastri
Top-5	—	1-0
Ranked 6–15	0-1	0-1
Building	—	1-2

Xiong Jingnan — bouts

L vs Angela Hill#1467
May 30, 2026 · Ranked 6–15

Julia Polastri — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Xiong Jingnan

Julia Polastri

Jingnan — last 5

recent → old

WONE

DEC

Meng

Mar ’25

WONE

DEC

Lee

Sep ’22

WONE

DEC

Miura

Jan ’22

WONE

DEC

Nicolini

Sep ’21

Polastri — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

2-3

Current streak

L1

Even

L1

Ranked opps

1 of 5

2 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Xiong Jingnan

Julia Polastri

Post-result bounce

SituationJingnan Polastri

After a loss

—

2-0100%

After a win

—

0-20%

Camp length

SituationJingnan Polastri

Typical camp100–180 days

—

1-150%

Long layoff> 180 days

—

1-150%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Xiong Jingnan

Julia Polastri

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Jingnan12W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Polastri8W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑6%·Jingnan

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑6%·Jingnan

B

58th

63%

+8

C

50th

57%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

41%

60%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

C

55th

0%

Even

C

55th

0%

Submission defense

↑5%·Polastri

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑5%·Polastri

C

54th

5%

Even

B

59th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Xiong Jingnan	Julia Polastri
Wins
by KO / TKO	11(58%)	5(36%)
by submission	1(5%)	3(21%)
by decision	7(37%)	6(43%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0(0%)
by submission	1(33%)	0(0%)
by decision	2(67%)	6(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Xiong Jingnan

vs

Julia Polastri

0%

0 KO/TKO in 1 bout

Knockout rate

14%

1 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Xiong JingnanFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Julia PolastriFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Xiong Jingnan

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Julia Polastri

115%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Polastri lifts to 115% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Jingnan hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Jingnan

Polastri ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Jingnan

Polastrilanded / min

Takedown attempts

Jingnan

Polastriattempts / min

Control time

Jingnan

Polastri% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Xiong Jingnan	4.7	4.6	7.2	0.00	2%	1
R1	Julia Polastri	7.0	6.5	4.9	0.04	9%	5
R2	Xiong Jingnan	5.0	5.0	8.4	0.00	0%	1
R2	Julia Polastri	5.8	4.8	4.2	0.08	19%	5
R3	Xiong Jingnan	4.0	4.0	8.8	0.00	0%	1
R3	Julia Polastri	8.0	7.5	6.7	0.04	8%	5

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.