Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Mario Pinto

edge

Ryan Spann

Striking

◂ Pinto

Pinto out-strikes Spann

Effective offense

A

80th

2.0

+26

C

54th

1.2

Defense

A

80th

58%

+46

D

34th

43%

KO power

C

7 KO

0.3 KD

Even

B

7 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Pinto

Pinto has the bigger wrestling edge on Spann (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

A

79th

2.5

+19

B

60th

1.2

Takedown accuracy

D

35th

26%

+15

C

50th

35%

Takedown defense

100%

58%

Control time

A+

91st

7.1 min

+28

B

63rd

3.5 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

A

80th

1.0

Even

A+

85th

1.5

Sub win rate

B

66th

8%

1 sub

+24

A+

89th

58%

14 subs

Submission defense

D

37th

0%

Even

D

30th

9%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

D

41st

67%

+9

C

50th

80%

KO durability

B

61st

0%

+10

C

50th

19%

Submission defense

D

34th

0%

Even

D

29th

13%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Pinto

Pinto pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

6.2

4.9

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.2

4.5

Pace trend—+9%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Pinto

Pinto is in better recent form than Spann

Win rate (career)

100%

63%

After a win

100%

56%

Last 5

100%

60%

Win streakW5W2

See full Form →

Schedule

Spann ▸

Spann has faced the tougher schedule vs Pinto

Schedule strength

11%

52%

Win quality

61%

54%

Ranked opponents

0

10

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Pinto

Pinto is fresher and more active than Spann

Last bout

6mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

Even

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Pinto

Pinto 7y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Mario PintovsRyan Spann

28

Age

7y

younger

35

6'5"

196cm

Height

Even

6'5"

196cm

79"

201cm

Reach

Even

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Mario PintoRyan Spann

Percentile

Striking/min2.853.11

Accuracy%69%39%

Defense%58%43%

Takedowns/152.41.2

TD defense%100%59%

Submissions/150.91.7

Career rate as a percentile within the heavyweight (305 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Mario Pinto, from opponents’ full pro records

Mario Pinto

Strong

Opponents' combined record

54-33

.621 win rate

Winning-record opponents

5 of 8

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

8

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 22m ago

Mario Pinto

Consensus

75%▲ 6

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Pinto

Kalshi77¢bestSportsbook-34574%

Ryan Spann

Consensus

25%▼ 4

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Spann

Kalshi24¢bestSportsbook+27526%

Pinto 75%25% Spann

$24k vol · $23k OI$20k vol · $19k OI

More Kalshi markets · yes-price

Fight goes the distance24¢

Ends under1.5 40¢2.5 0¢

Pinto wins by

KO 56¢Sub 7¢Dec 16¢

Spann wins by

KO 9¢Sub 13¢Dec 4¢

Draw / No contest 2¢

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Mario Pinto

54%-112

7%+1329

12%+732

Ryan Spann

9%+1040

13%+669

4%+2400

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Mario Pinto

54%-112

7%+1329

12%+732

Ryan Spann

9%+1040

13%+669

4%+2400

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over28%+240
Under72%-325

Goes the distance

Yes21%+366
No79%-400

UFC betting history

Career

PintoMario Pinto

SpannRyan Spann

—

As pick'em

1-0100%

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi73%77%4 pts

Sportsbook71%75%4 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

PintoMario Pinto

Stat

SpannRyan Spann

2

—

KO / TKO

4

3

0

—

Submission

4

2

1

—

Decision

2

1

9:56

Avg fight time

6:10

Mario Pinto’s splits

vs Spann

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Ryan Spann’s splits

vs Pinto

vs Southpaw

5-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-150%

vs Shorter reach

9-564%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Mario PintovsRyan Spann

28

Age

7y

younger

35

6'5"

196cm

Height

Even

6'5"

196cm

79"

201cm

Reach

Even

79"

201cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

A

71st

+22

C

49th

Pinto has the striking edge (+22).

Attacking

Pinto’s offensevsSpann’s defense

Where Pinto attacks (green = high volume) vs where Spann gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Pinto’s green zones meeting Spann’s red zones are the openings.

Mario PintoOffense

Head80%54th61
Body11%45th8
Leg9%50th7

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Ryan SpannDefense

Head68%33rd258
Body11%57th43
Leg21%23rd79

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Pinto — by position

45%Standing

Standing45%34
Clinch18%14
Ground37%28

Spann — absorbed by position

77%Standing

Standing77%291
Clinch6%24
Ground17%65

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Pinto’s offensevsSpann’s defense

Head

C

54th

31.8

+22

D

33rd

38.1

Body

C

45th

7.0

+12

C

57th

7.5

Leg

C

50th

5.5

+27

F

23rd

10.7

Spann’s offensevsPinto’s defense

Head

C

58th

34.1

Even

B

59th

27.5

Body

C

55th

8.7

+13

D

42nd

9.7

Leg

C

43rd

4.1

+15

C

58th

5.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Mario Pinto	around division average31.8	63%	above division average27.5	61
Head	Ryan Spann	above division average34.1	34%	below division average38.1	229
Body	Mario Pinto	around division average7.0	89%	below division average9.7	8
Body	Ryan Spann	above division average8.7	70%	above division average7.5	56
Leg	Mario Pinto	around division average5.5	88%	above division average5.5	7
Leg	Ryan Spann	below division average4.1	95%	well below average10.7	19

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Mario Pinto

Ryan Spann

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

64th

Even

B

60th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

A

71st

2.5

+9

B

61st

1.2

Takedown accuracy

D

35th

26%

5/19

+15

C

50th

35%

8/23

Takedown defense

100%

2/2

C

42nd

58%

18/31

Submission threat

A

76th

1.0

Even

A

83rd

1.5

Control time

A

75th

7.1 min

+14

B

61st

3.5 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Mario Pinto	Ryan Spann
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.55	1.28
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	26%5 / 19	35%8 / 23
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	100%2 / 2	58%18 / 31
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.02	1.510
Control time / 15 (min)career total	7.1 min14:01	3.5 min23:14
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.5 min1:02	2.4 min15:44

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Mario Pinto

31

Schedule Score

Ryan Spann

53

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

30 min

3 bouts

Octagon time

69 min

more

99 min

16 bouts

Schedule strength

11%

52%

Win quality

61%

54%

Ranked opponents

0

10

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Mario Pinto	Ryan Spann
Top-5	—	3-3
Ranked 6–15	—	3-2
Cross-div ranked	—	1-1
Building	1-0	1-0
Unproven	2-0	2-0

Mario Pinto — bouts

Ryan Spann — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Mario Pinto

Ryan Spann

Pinto — last 5

recent → old

WLFL 11

DEC

Aras

Feb ’24

Spann — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

3-2

Current streak

W5

W2

Ranked opps

0 of 5

2 of 5

Layoff

6 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Mario Pinto

Ryan Spann

Post-result bounce

SituationPinto Spann

After a loss

—

4-267%

After a win

2-0100%

5-456%

Camp length

SituationPinto Spann

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

4-450%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-0100%

5-271%

Rematches

SituationPinto Spann

All rematchesany repeat opponent

—

0-10%

Revenge boutslost the first

—

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Mario Pinto

Ryan Spann

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Pinto8W–0L by finish · 63% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Spann21W–8L by finish · 85% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑21%·Spann

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑21%·Spann

F

22nd

67%

+23

C

46th

88%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

33%

17%

KO durability

↑14%·Pinto

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑14%·Pinto

A

83rd

0%

+18

B

66th

14%

Submission defense

↑9%·Pinto

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑9%·Pinto

B

62nd

0%

+15

C

48th

9%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Mario Pinto	Ryan Spann
Wins
by KO / TKO	7(58%)	7(29%)
by submission	1(8%)	14(58%)
by decision	4(33%)	3(13%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0	5(45%)
by submission	0	3(27%)
by decision	0	3(27%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Mario Pinto

vs

Ryan Spann

75%

3 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

Knockout rate

22%

4 KO/TKO in 18 bouts

1

1.6 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

6

2.6 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

3.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

4

1.6 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Mario PintoFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Ryan SpannFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta1y 5mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025 · R2 · 4:48
Last time submitted
vs Nikita Krylov3y 5mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023 · R1 · 3:38

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Mario Pinto

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Ryan Spann

139%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Spann lifts to 139% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Pinto hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Pinto

Spann ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Pinto

Spannlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Pinto

Spannattempts / min

Control time

Pinto

Spann% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Mario Pinto	4.6	2.3	2.0	0.33	31%	3
R1	Ryan Spann	4.7	2.6	3.1	0.32	28%	16
R2	Mario Pinto	7.8	3.3	1.5	0.71	60%	3
R2	Ryan Spann	4.4	3.4	4.6	0.11	16%	7
R3	Mario Pinto	8.8	1.8	1.8	1.40	69%	1
R3	Ryan Spann	5.5	4.2	5.2	0.13	22%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.