Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Oumar Sy

edge

Modestas Bukauskas

Striking

◂ Sy

Sy out-strikes Bukauskas

Effective offense

B

67th

1.6

+12

C

54th

1.4

Defense

A+

88th

66%

+45

C

43rd

50%

KO power

C

5 KO

0.0 KD

Even

C

11 KO

0.1 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Sy

Sy has the bigger wrestling edge on Bukauskas (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

A

81st

2.5

+56

F

25th

0.2

Takedown accuracy

35%

67%

Takedown defense

67%

82%

Control time

A

82nd

5.1 min

+43

D

39th

1.6 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

B

64th

0.4

+12

C

52nd

0.1

Sub win rate

B

69th

33%

4 subs

+13

C

57th

15%

3 subs

Submission defense

D

41st

7%

Even

C

46th

4%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Sy

Sy is more likely to finish Bukauskas

Finish rate

C

47th

67%

+13

D

34th

50%

KO durability

B

69th

0%

+30

D

39th

31%

Submission defense

D

29th

20%

+20

C

49th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Sy

Sy pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Bukauskas's pace builds while Sy's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.3

3.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.9

3.6

Pace trend

-5%/rd

+10%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Bukauskas ▸

Bukauskas is in better recent form than Sy

Win rate (career)

60%

Even

62%

After a win

33%

57%

Last 5

60%

80%

Win streakL1W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

35%

39%

Win quality

32%

46%

Ranked opponents

2

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)0-11-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Bukauskas ▸

Bukauskas is fresher and more active than Sy

Last bout

5mo

3mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

3

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

5

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Sy

Sy 7" reach · Sy 3 cm · Switch-stance wrinkle

Oumar SyvsModestas Bukauskas

30

Age

2y

younger

32

6'4"

193cm

Height

1"

taller

6'3"

191cm

83"

211cm

Reach

7"

reach

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Oumar SyModestas Bukauskas

Percentile

Striking/min3.413.14

Accuracy%48%43%

Defense%66%50%

Takedowns/152.50.2

TD defense%66%82%

Submissions/150.30.1

Career rate as a percentile within the light heavyweight (227 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Oumar Sy, from opponents’ full pro records

Oumar Sy

Strong

Opponents' combined record

84-50-1

.627 win rate

Winning-record opponents

6 of 9

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

9

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Oumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas

62%

-175

MMA Index model

Unlock

38%

+153

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

SyOumar Sy

BukauskasModestas Bukauskas

—

As pick'em

1-0100%

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

SyOumar Sy

Stat

BukauskasModestas Bukauskas

1

0

KO / TKO

3

4

1

Submission

1

0

1

Decision

4

1

8:34

Avg fight time

10:04

Oumar Sy’s splits

vs Bukauskas

vs Orthodox

3-175%

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Modestas Bukauskas’s splits

vs Sy

vs Southpaw

3-260%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-250%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Oumar SyvsModestas Bukauskas

30

Age

2y

younger

32

6'4"

193cm

Height

1"

taller

6'3"

191cm

83"

211cm

Reach

7"

reach

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

67th

+19

C

48th

Sy has the striking edge (+19).

Attacking

Sy’s offensevsBukauskas’s defense

Where Sy attacks (green = high volume) vs where Bukauskas gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Sy’s green zones meeting Bukauskas’s red zones are the openings.

Oumar SyOffense

Head51%50th75
Body19%58th28
Leg29%73rd43

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Modestas BukauskasDefense

Head40%68th202
Body35%11th176
Leg25%16th127

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Sy — by position

83%Standing

Standing83%121
Clinch8%12
Ground9%13

Bukauskas — absorbed by position

88%Standing

Standing88%442
Clinch11%54
Ground2%9

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Sy’s offensevsBukauskas’s defense

Head

C

50th

29.2

+18

B

68th

26.5

Body

C

58th

9.9

+47

F

11th

17.7

Leg

A

73rd

11.7

+56

F

16th

13.1

Bukauskas’s offensevsSy’s defense

Head

B

60th

33.5

+8

B

69th

25.9

Body

C

51st

8.5

+11

B

62nd

8.1

Leg

C

44th

5.9

Even

C

50th

8.3

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Oumar Sy	around division average29.2	35%	above division average25.9	75
Head	Modestas Bukauskas	above division average33.5	36%	above division average26.5	297
Body	Oumar Sy	above division average9.9	72%	above division average8.1	28
Body	Modestas Bukauskas	around division average8.5	80%	bottom of the division17.7	70
Leg	Oumar Sy	top 27% of division11.7	88%	around division average8.3	43
Leg	Modestas Bukauskas	below division average5.9	92%	well below average13.1	44

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Oumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

66th

+14

C

52nd

Sy has the grappling edge (+14).

Takedowns

A

73rd

2.5

+34

D

39th

0.2

Takedown accuracy

C

54th

35%

7/20

67%

2/3

Takedown defense

67%

2/3

A

70th

82%

23/28

Submission threat

B

67th

0.4

+11

C

56th

0.1

Control time

A

72nd

5.1 min

+29

C

43rd

1.6 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Oumar Sy	Modestas Bukauskas
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.57	0.22
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	35%7 / 20	67%2 / 3
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	67%2 / 3	82%23 / 28
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.41	0.11
Control time / 15 (min)career total	5.1 min14:31	1.6 min14:21
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.9 min2:39	2.2 min19:36

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Oumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Bukauskas

0-1

0-1

1-0

1-0

Edge · Bukauskas

Decision (Split)R3· 5:00

opp ranked #15

W

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Oumar Sy

35

Schedule Score

Modestas Bukauskas

42

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

43 min

5 bouts

Octagon time

88 min

more

131 min

13 bouts

Schedule strength

35%

39%

Win quality

32%

46%

Ranked opponents

2

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Oumar Sy	Modestas Bukauskas
Top-5	—	0-2
Ranked 6–15	0-2	3-2
Contender-level	—	0-1
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	2-0	5-0

Oumar Sy — bouts

Modestas Bukauskas — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Oumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas

Sy — last 5

recent → old

Bukauskas — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

4-1

Current streak

L1

W1

Ranked opps

2 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

3 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Oumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas

Post-result bounce

SituationSy Bukauskas

After a loss

1-0100%

3-260%

After a win

1-233%

4-357%

Camp length

SituationSy Bukauskas

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-0100%

1-150%

Typical camp100–180 days

1-0100%

3-443%

Long layoff> 180 days

0-20%

3-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Oumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Sy9W–1L by finish · 89% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Bukauskas14W–6L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑5%·Sy

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑5%·Sy

D

34th

75%

Even

D

28th

70%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

29%

26%

KO durability

↑19%·Sy

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑19%·Sy

A

83rd

0%

+34

C

49th

19%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

C

55th

7%

+10

B

65th

4%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Oumar Sy	Modestas Bukauskas
Wins
by KO / TKO	5(42%)	11(55%)
by submission	4(33%)	3(15%)
by decision	3(25%)	6(30%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	5(71%)
by submission	1(50%)	1(14%)
by decision	1(50%)	1(14%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Oumar Sy

vs

Modestas Bukauskas

20%

1 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

Knockout rate

23%

3 KO/TKO in 13 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.3 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

5

2.5 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Oumar SyFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Ion Cutelaba5 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026 · R1 · 4:24

Modestas BukauskasFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Nikita Krylov7 months ago
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 24, 2026 · R3 · 4:57
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Oumar Sy

92%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Modestas Bukauskas

143%

R3 vs R1 · 7 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Bukauskas: Bukauskas builds (+11% per round through round 3) while Sy fades (-5% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Sy keeps 92% of round-1 output by round 3, Bukauskas 143%.

Sy ▼ FADES

Bukauskas ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Sy

Bukauskaslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Sy

Bukauskasattempts / min

Control time

Sy

Bukauskas% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Oumar Sy	5.8	2.7	1.9	0.53	38%	5
R1	Modestas Bukauskas	3.2	3.0	3.2	0.02	4%	13
R2	Oumar Sy	8.0	4.8	1.0	0.50	43%	2
R2	Modestas Bukauskas	4.0	3.3	4.4	0.03	16%	9
R3	Oumar Sy	5.2	3.7	2.6	0.30	15%	2
R3	Modestas Bukauskas	4.0	3.2	4.4	0.03	18%	7

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.