Mateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Mateusz Rebecki

edge

Kyle Prepolec

Striking

◂ Rebecki

Rebecki out-strikes Prepolec

Effective offense

A

84th

2.2

+41

C

43rd

1.1

Defense

D

41st

54%

+21

F

20th

48%

KO power

C

9 KO

0.6 KD

+10

C

10 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Rebecki

Rebecki has the bigger wrestling edge on Prepolec

Takedowns landed

A

85th

2.8

+75

F

9th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

49%

0%

Takedown defense

D

41st

53%

+10

D

31st

45%

Control time

A

70th

3.9 min

+63

F

7th

0.3 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Rebecki

Rebecki is the bigger submission threat on Prepolec

Submission attempts

C

46th

0.3

+28

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

A

74th

35%

7 subs

Even

B

69th

22%

4 subs

Submission defense

C

50th

4%

+9

D

41st

11%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both are heavy finishers — Rebecki by KO (16 of 20 wins), Prepolec by KO (14 of 18).

Finish rate (of wins)

80% (16/20)

Even

78% (14/18)

By KO/TKO

9

10

By submission

7

4

Avg finish round

R1.8 avg finish

Even

R1.9 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Rebecki

Rebecki pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

7.1

3.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.4

4.0

Pace trend

-6%/rd

-4%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

50%

0%

After a win50%—

Last 5

20%

60%

Win streakL3L2

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

36%

58%

Win quality

32%

7%

Ranked opponents

2

Even

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Rebecki

Rebecki is fresher and more active than Prepolec

Last bout

2mo

9mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Prepolec ▸

Prepolec 4" reach · Prepolec 8 cm · Closed-stance matchup

Mateusz RebeckivsKyle Prepolec

33

Age

3y

younger

36

5'7"

170cm

Height

3"

taller

5'10"

178cm

66"

168cm

Reach

4"

reach

70"

178cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Mateusz RebeckiKyle Prepolec

Percentile

Striking/min4.793.25

Accuracy%46%34%

Defense%54%48%

Takedowns/153.00.0

TD defense%53%45%

Submissions/150.40.0

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (423 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Kyle Prepolec, from opponents’ full pro records

Kyle Prepolec

Strong

Opponents' combined record

262-166-5

.612 win rate

Winning-record opponents

16 of 24

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

24

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

RebeckiMateusz Rebecki

PrepolecKyle Prepolec

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

RebeckiMateusz Rebecki

Stat

PrepolecKyle Prepolec

1

KO / TKO

—

1

Submission

—

1

2

Decision

—

2

12:32

Avg fight time

12:13

Mateusz Rebecki’s splits

vs Prepolec

vs Orthodox

4-267%

vs Switch

0-10%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Kyle Prepolec’s splits

vs Rebecki

vs Orthodox

0-20%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-30%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Mateusz RebeckivsKyle Prepolec

33

Age

3y

younger

36

5'7"

170cm

Height

3"

taller

5'10"

178cm

66"

168cm

Reach

4"

reach

70"

178cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

61st

+24

D

37th

Rebecki has the striking edge (+24).

Attacking

Rebecki’s offensevsPrepolec’s defense

Where Rebecki attacks (green = high volume) vs where Prepolec gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Rebecki’s green zones meeting Prepolec’s red zones are the openings.

Mateusz RebeckiOffense

Head69%84th340
Body16%63rd79
Leg15%73rd76

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Kyle PrepolecDefense

Head48%36th134
Body25%16th70
Leg27%9th74

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Rebecki — by position

80%Standing

Standing80%396
Clinch5%27
Ground15%72

Prepolec — absorbed by position

83%Standing

Standing83%231
Clinch10%28
Ground7%19

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Rebecki’s offensevsPrepolec’s defense

Head

A

84th

44.4

+48

D

36th

37.2

Body

B

63rd

11.3

+46

F

16th

16.2

Leg

A

73rd

10.3

+64

F

9th

15.8

Prepolec’s offensevsRebecki’s defense

Head

C

54th

29.9

+34

F

20th

45.0

Body

B

61st

11.1

+30

D

31st

12.2

Leg

C

54th

7.5

+16

A

70th

5.1

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Mateusz Rebecki	top 16% of division44.4	40%	well below average45.0	340
Head	Kyle Prepolec	around division average29.9	27%	below division average37.2	97
Body	Mateusz Rebecki	above division average11.3	68%	below division average12.2	79
Body	Kyle Prepolec	above division average11.1	62%	well below average16.2	39
Leg	Mateusz Rebecki	top 27% of division10.3	92%	top 30% of division5.1	76
Leg	Kyle Prepolec	around division average7.5	62%	bottom of the division15.8	23

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Mateusz Rebecki

Kyle Prepolec

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

62nd

+26

D

36th

Rebecki holds a decisive grappling edge (+26).

Takedowns

A

78th

2.8

+43

D

35th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

A

72nd

49%

19/39

0%

0/7

Takedown defense

D

41st

53%

8/15

+10

D

31st

45%

5/11

Submission threat

C

53rd

0.3

Even

C

48th

0.0

Control time

B

67th

3.9 min

+35

D

32nd

0.3 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Mateusz Rebecki	Kyle Prepolec
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.819	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	49%19 / 39	0%0 / 7
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	53%8 / 15	45%5 / 11
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.32	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.9 min26:16	0.3 min0:56
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.9 min12:42	3.5 min11:21

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Mateusz Rebecki

37

Schedule Score

Kyle Prepolec

36

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

100 min

8 bouts

Octagon time

51 min

more

49 min

4 bouts

Schedule strength

36%

58%

Win quality

32%

7%

Ranked opponents

2

Even

2

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Mateusz Rebecki	Kyle Prepolec
Top-5	—	0-1
Ranked 6–15	0-2	0-1
Contender-level	0-1	—
Established	1-1	0-1
Building	2-0	—
Unproven	1-0	0-1

Mateusz Rebecki — bouts

Kyle Prepolec — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Mateusz Rebecki

Kyle Prepolec

Rebecki — last 5

recent → old

Prepolec — last 5

recent → old

WBTC 24

KO R1

Wurlitzer

Jun ’24

WPFC 16

KO R1

Henry

Apr ’23

WPFC 14

KO R1

Elpidio

Oct ’22

Last 5 record

1-4

3-2

Current streak

L3

L2

Ranked opps

2 of 5

Even

2 of 5

Layoff

2 mo

9 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Mateusz Rebecki

Kyle Prepolec

Post-result bounce

SituationRebecki Prepolec

After a loss

1-233%

0-30%

After a win

2-250%

—

Camp length

SituationRebecki Prepolec

Short turnaround< 100 days

0-10%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

3-0100%

0-20%

Long layoff> 180 days

0-30%

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Mateusz Rebecki

Kyle Prepolec

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Rebecki15W–3L by finish · 60% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Prepolec14W–4L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

B

63rd

80%

Even

C

57th

78%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

24%

36%

KO durability

↑4%·Prepolec

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑4%·Prepolec

C

52nd

8%

+20

A

72nd

4%

Submission defense

↑7%·Rebecki

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑7%·Rebecki

C

57th

4%

+26

D

31st

11%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Mateusz Rebecki	Kyle Prepolec
Wins
by KO / TKO	9(45%)	10(56%)
by submission	7(35%)	4(22%)
by decision	4(20%)	4(22%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(40%)	1(10%)
by submission	1(20%)	3(30%)
by decision	2(40%)	6(60%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Mateusz Rebecki

vs

Kyle Prepolec

11%

1 KO/TKO in 9 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

5

1.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Mateusz RebeckiFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Diego Ferreira2y 2mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024 · R3 · 4:51
Last time submitted
vs Grant Dawson2 months ago
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · May 9, 2026 · R3 · 4:42

Kyle PrepolecFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Drew Dober9 months ago
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025 · R3 · 1:16
Last time submitted
vs Benoit Saint Denis1y 2mo ago
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025 · R2 · 2:35

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Mateusz Rebecki

89%

R3 vs R1 · 6 bouts reaching R3

Kyle Prepolec

69%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

No clear cardio edge — Rebecki fades (-6% per round through round 3) and Prepolec fades (-4% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Rebecki keeps 89% of round-1 output by round 3, Prepolec 69%.

Rebecki ▼ FADES

Prepolec ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Rebecki

Prepoleclanded / min

Takedown attempts

Rebecki

Prepolecattempts / min

Control time

Rebecki

Prepolec% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Mateusz Rebecki	7.5	5.5	3.5	0.34	25%	8
R1	Kyle Prepolec	3.4	3.4	4.0	0.00	0%	4
R2	Mateusz Rebecki	7.2	5.2	5.2	0.40	19%	7
R2	Kyle Prepolec	4.6	4.0	7.6	0.17	1%	4
R3	Mateusz Rebecki	6.6	3.9	5.0	0.44	36%	6
R3	Kyle Prepolec	3.1	1.8	5.7	0.36	7%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.