Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Mike Davis

edge

Nurullo Aliev

Striking

◂ Davis

Davis out-strikes Aliev

Effective offense

A+

88th

2.5

+39

C

49th

1.2

Defense

D

34th

54%

+46

A

80th

58%

KO power

B

8 KO

0.6 KD

+35

D

2 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Aliev ▸

Aliev has the bigger wrestling edge on Davis

Takedowns landed

A

84th

2.8

+15

B

70th

2.0

Takedown accuracy

A

72nd

50%

Even

A

73rd

55%

Takedown defense

C

46th

59%

+24

B

70th

80%

Control time

A

77th

4.3 min

+19

A+

96th

7.6 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Davis

Davis is the bigger submission threat on Aliev

Submission attempts

A

74th

0.9

+26

C

48th

0.3

Sub win rate

B

64th

17%

2 subs

Even

C

57th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

46th

7%

Even

C

51st

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Davis

Davis is more likely to finish Aliev

Finish rate

B

61st

60%

+31

D

30th

0%

KO durability

B

61st

0%

Even

C

55th

0%

Submission defense

D

37th

14%

+9

C

46th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Davis

Davis pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Davis's pace fades late

Work rate / min — full fight

6.7

5.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.3

5.2

Pace trend

-16%/rd

-1%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Aliev ▸

Aliev is in better recent form than Davis

Win rate (career)

71%

100%

After a win

75%

100%

Last 5

80%

100%

Win streakW1W5

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

22%

16%

Win quality

45%

63%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Aliev ▸

Aliev is fresher and more active than Davis

Last bout

12mo

8mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

Even

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Davis 5 cm · Aliev 7y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Mike DavisvsNurullo Aliev

33

Age

7y

younger

26

6'0"

183cm

Height

2"

taller

5'10"

178cm

73"

184cm

Reach

1"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Mike DavisNurullo Aliev

Percentile

Striking/min4.732.72

Accuracy%53%44%

Defense%54%58%

Takedowns/152.42.1

TD defense%60%80%

Submissions/150.80.3

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (421 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

DavisMike Davis

AlievNurullo Aliev

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

DavisMike Davis

Stat

AlievNurullo Aliev

2

0

KO / TKO

0

—

1

Submission

0

—

2

1

Decision

3

—

12:07

Avg fight time

15:00

Mike Davis’s splits

vs Aliev

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

2-167%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Nurullo Aliev’s splits

vs Davis

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Mike DavisvsNurullo Aliev

33

Age

7y

younger

26

6'0"

183cm

Height

2"

taller

5'10"

178cm

73"

184cm

Reach

1"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

61st

+9

C

51st

Davis has the striking edge (+9).

Attacking

Davis’s offensevsAliev’s defense

Where Davis attacks (green = high volume) vs where Aliev gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Davis’s green zones meeting Aliev’s red zones are the openings.

Mike DavisOffense

Head64%80th253
Body27%81st105
Leg9%52nd37

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Nurullo AlievDefense

Head45%72nd35
Body27%57th21
Leg28%46th22

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Davis — by position

74%Standing

Standing74%291
Clinch8%30
Ground19%74

Aliev — absorbed by position

92%Standing

Standing92%72
Clinch5%4
Ground3%2

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Davis’s offensevsAliev’s defense

Head

A

80th

39.7

+8

A

72nd

22.3

Body

A

81st

15.6

+25

C

57th

8.7

Leg

C

52nd

7.0

Even

C

46th

7.8

Aliev’s offensevsDavis’s defense

Head

C

52nd

29.2

+23

D

29th

40.4

Body

C

42nd

7.6

Even

D

36th

11.5

Leg

D

36th

4.8

+20

F

15th

13.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Mike Davis	top 20% of division39.7	48%	well below average40.4	253
Head	Nurullo Aliev	around division average29.2	39%	top 28% of division22.3	85
Body	Mike Davis	top 19% of division15.6	71%	below division average11.5	105
Body	Nurullo Aliev	below division average7.6	71%	above division average8.7	15
Leg	Mike Davis	around division average7.0	77%	well below average13.5	37
Leg	Nurullo Aliev	below division average4.8	56%	around division average7.8	5

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Mike Davis

Nurullo Aliev

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

67th

Even

A

70th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

A

77th

2.8

+13

B

65th

2.0

Takedown accuracy

A

72nd

50%

16/32

Even

A

73rd

55%

6/11

Takedown defense

C

46th

59%

13/22

+24

B

70th

80%

8/10

Submission threat

A

72nd

0.9

+14

B

58th

0.3

Control time

B

69th

4.3 min

+16

A+

85th

7.6 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Mike Davis	Nurullo Aliev
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.816	2.06
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	50%16 / 32	55%6 / 11
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	59%13 / 22	80%8 / 10
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.95	0.31
Control time / 15 (min)career total	4.3 min24:20	7.6 min22:48
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.5 min14:21	0.8 min2:26

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Mike Davis

33

Schedule Score

Nurullo Aliev

32

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

85 min

7 bouts

Octagon time

40 min

more

45 min

3 bouts

Schedule strength

22%

16%

Win quality

45%

63%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Nurullo Aliev, from opponents’ full pro records

Nurullo Aliev

Strong

Opponents' combined record

55-28-2

.663 win rate

Winning-record opponents

5 of 7

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

7

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Mike Davis	Nurullo Aliev
Top-15	0-1	—
Cross-div ranked	0-1	—
Established	—	1-0
Building	2-0	—
Unproven	3-0	2-0

Mike Davis — bouts

Nurullo Aliev — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Mike Davis

Nurullo Aliev

Davis — last 5

recent → old

Aliev — last 5

recent → old

WEFC

DEC

Kryukov

Sep ’21

WAMC

DEC

Grebnev

Dec ’20

Last 5 record

4-1

5-0

Current streak

W1

W5

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

12 mo

8 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Mike Davis

Nurullo Aliev

Post-result bounce

SituationDavis Aliev

After a loss

2-0100%

—

After a win

3-175%

2-0100%

Camp length

SituationDavis Aliev

Typical camp100–180 days

2-0100%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

3-175%

2-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Mike Davis

Nurullo Aliev

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Davis10W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Aliev1W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑65%·Davis

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑65%·Davis

B

67th

83%

+66

F

1st

18%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

27%

82%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A

78th

0%

Even

A

78th

0%

Submission defense

↑7%·Aliev

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑7%·Aliev

C

44th

7%

+21

B

65th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Mike Davis	Nurullo Aliev
Wins
by KO / TKO	8(67%)	2(18%)
by submission	2(17%)	0(0%)
by decision	2(17%)	9(82%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0
by submission	1(33%)	0
by decision	2(67%)	0

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Mike Davis

vs

Nurullo Aliev

25%

2 KO/TKO in 8 bouts

Knockout rate

25%

1 KO/TKO in 4 bouts

4

1.6 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Mike DavisFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Gilbert Burns7y 2mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019 · R2 · 4:15

Nurullo AlievFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Mike Davis

52%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Nurullo Aliev

97%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Aliev: Aliev holds steady (-2% per round through round 3) while Davis fades (-16% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Davis drops to 52% of round-1 output by round 3, Aliev 97%.

Davis ▼ FADES

Aliev — HOLDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Davis

Alievlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Davis

Alievattempts / min

Control time

Davis

Aliev% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Mike Davis	7.8	4.6	4.2	0.54	39%	7
R1	Nurullo Aliev	5.0	2.0	1.2	0.27	54%	3
R2	Mike Davis	6.8	5.0	5.7	0.33	20%	7
R2	Nurullo Aliev	5.5	1.9	1.7	0.33	65%	3
R3	Mike Davis	5.6	4.3	4.7	0.15	22%	4
R3	Nurullo Aliev	4.8	3.1	2.3	0.13	34%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.