Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Rei Tsuruya

edge

Kevin Borjas

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

C

43rd

1.2

+30

A

73rd

1.7

Defense

C

49th

42%

+35

F

13th

49%

KO power

C

4 KO

0.0 KD

+14

C

8 KO

0.5 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Tsuruya

Tsuruya has the bigger wrestling edge on Borjas (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

A+

89th

3.6

+82

F

7th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

D

34th

25%

+24

F

10th

0%

Takedown defense

50%

81%

Control time

A+

91st

5.6 min

+76

F

15th

0.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Tsuruya

Tsuruya is the bigger submission threat on Borjas

Submission attempts

C

51st

0.5

+37

F

14th

0.0

Sub win rate

A

75th

45%

5 subs

+22

C

53rd

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

48th

0%

Even

C

44th

7%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Tsuruya

Tsuruya is more likely to finish Borjas

Finish rate

C

53rd

50%

+22

D

32nd

0%

KO durability

C

45th

0%

+25

F

21st

33%

Submission defense

C

44th

0%

Even

C

47th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Tsuruya

Tsuruya pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Borjas's pace builds while Tsuruya's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.3

4.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.1

3.7

Pace trend

-13%/rd

+21%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Tsuruya

Tsuruya is in better recent form than Borjas

Win rate (career)

67%

33%

After a win

0%

Even

0%

Last 5

80%

40%

Win streakW1W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

35%

30%

Win quality

29%

27%

Ranked opponents

1

Even

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)0-10-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

Borjas ▸

Borjas has fought more often lately than Tsuruya

Last bout

3mo

2mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Tsuruya

Tsuruya 5 cm · Tsuruya 4y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Rei TsuruyavsKevin Borjas

24

Age

4y

younger

28

5'7"

170cm

Height

2"

taller

5'5"

165cm

68"

173cm

Reach

Even

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Rei TsuruyaKevin Borjas

Percentile

Striking/min2.243.96

Accuracy%52%44%

Defense%42%49%

Takedowns/155.10.0

TD defense%50%70%

Submissions/151.90.0

Career rate as a percentile within the flyweight (117 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Rei Tsuruya, from opponents’ full pro records

Rei Tsuruya

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

68-58-4

.540 win rate

Winning-record opponents

2 of 6

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

6

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 3m ago

Rei Tsuruya

Consensus

84%▲ 3

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Tsuruya

Kalshi85¢bestSportsbook-65083%

Kevin Borjas

Consensus

16%flat

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Borjas

Kalshi16¢bestSportsbook+47517%

Tsuruya 84%16% Borjas

$9k vol · $9k OI$14k vol · $13k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Rei Tsuruya

18%+350

35%+134

29%+190

Kevin Borjas

8%+920

3%+3000

7%+1100

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Rei Tsuruya

18%+350

35%+134

29%+190

Kevin Borjas

8%+920

3%+3000

7%+1100

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over45%+117
Under55%-130

Goes the distance

Yes42%+130
No58%-156

UFC betting history

Career

TsuruyaRei Tsuruya

BorjasKevin Borjas

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi82%85%3 pts

Sportsbook83%83%1 pt

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

TsuruyaRei Tsuruya

Stat

BorjasKevin Borjas

0

KO / TKO

0

2

1

0

Submission

0

1

Decision

2

11:06

Avg fight time

12:39

Rei Tsuruya’s splits

vs Borjas

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-167%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Kevin Borjas’s splits

vs Tsuruya

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-10%

vs Shorter reach

2-340%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Rei TsuruyavsKevin Borjas

24

Age

4y

younger

28

5'7"

170cm

Height

2"

taller

5'5"

165cm

68"

173cm

Reach

Even

68"

173cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

45th

Even

C

48th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Tsuruya’s offensevsBorjas’s defense

Where Tsuruya attacks (green = high volume) vs where Borjas gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Tsuruya’s green zones meeting Borjas’s red zones are the openings.

Rei TsuruyaOffense

Head91%50th60
Body6%28th4
Leg3%35th2

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Kevin BorjasDefense

Head55%25th239
Body23%17th99
Leg22%9th98

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Tsuruya — by position

56%Standing

Standing56%37
Clinch3%2
Ground41%27

Borjas — absorbed by position

89%Standing

Standing89%387
Clinch3%15
Ground8%34

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Tsuruya’s offensevsBorjas’s defense

Head

C

50th

28.9

+25

F

25th

42.5

Body

D

28th

6.9

+10

F

17th

16.6

Leg

D

35th

4.9

+26

F

9th

15.3

Borjas’s offensevsTsuruya’s defense

Head

B

70th

35.3

+13

C

57th

28.6

Body

C

51st

9.4

Even

C

47th

11.3

Leg

C

46th

6.3

+19

B

65th

6.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Rei Tsuruya	around division average28.9	45%	above division average28.6	60
Head	Kevin Borjas	top 30% of division35.3	37%	well below average42.5	194
Body	Rei Tsuruya	well below average6.9	57%	around division average11.3	4
Body	Kevin Borjas	around division average9.4	68%	well below average16.6	44
Leg	Rei Tsuruya	below division average4.9	100%	above division average6.0	2
Leg	Kevin Borjas	around division average6.3	75%	bottom of the division15.3	27

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

59th

+22

D

37th

Tsuruya has the grappling edge (+22).

Takedowns

A

71st

3.6

+46

D

25th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

D

34th

25%

8/32

+24

F

10th

0%

0/11

Takedown defense

50%

1/2

A

81st

81%

17/21

Submission threat

C

58th

0.5

+24

D

34th

0.0

Control time

A

73rd

5.6 min

+40

D

33rd

0.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Rei Tsuruya	Kevin Borjas
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	3.68	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	25%8 / 32	0%0 / 11
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	50%1 / 2	81%17 / 21
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.51	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	5.6 min12:25	0.8 min4:00
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.4 min5:19	1.6 min8:14

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas

Record vs common opponents

Even

0-1

0-1

0-1

0-1

Both lost

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

L

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Rei Tsuruya

32

Schedule Score

Kevin Borjas

33

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

33 min

3 bouts

Octagon time

43 min

more

76 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

35%

30%

Win quality

29%

27%

Ranked opponents

1

Even

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Rei Tsuruya	Kevin Borjas
Champion	0-1	0-1
Ranked 6–15	—	0-1
Established	—	0-1
Building	1-0	2-0
Unproven	1-0	0-1

Rei Tsuruya — bouts

Kevin Borjas — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas

Tsuruya — last 5

recent → old

WPANCRASE

SUB R2

Enomoto

Dec ’22

WPANCRASE

KO R1

Ueda

Sep ’22

Borjas — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

2-3

Current streak

W1

Even

W1

Ranked opps

1 of 5

Even

1 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

2 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas

Post-result bounce

SituationTsuruya Borjas

After a loss

1-0100%

2-250%

After a win

0-10%

Camp length

SituationTsuruya Borjas

Typical camp100–180 days

—

1-233%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-150%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Tsuruya7W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Borjas8W–3L by finish · 71% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

B

61st

82%

Even

B

59th

80%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

25%

27%

KO durability

↑13%·Tsuruya

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑13%·Tsuruya

B

66th

0%

+25

D

42nd

13%

Submission defense

↑7%·Tsuruya

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑7%·Tsuruya

B

67th

0%

+11

C

56th

7%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Rei Tsuruya	Kevin Borjas
Wins
by KO / TKO	4(36%)	8(80%)
by submission	5(45%)	0(0%)
by decision	2(18%)	2(20%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	2(40%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(20%)
by decision	1(100%)	2(40%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Rei Tsuruya

vs

Kevin Borjas

0%

0 KO/TKO in 3 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

1.5 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

0.8 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Rei TsuruyaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Kevin BorjasFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Imanol Rodriguez5 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026 · R2 · 4:21
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Rei Tsuruya

95%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Kevin Borjas

148%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Borjas: Borjas builds (+21% per round through round 3) while Tsuruya fades (-13% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Tsuruya keeps 95% of round-1 output by round 3, Borjas 148%.

Tsuruya ▼ FADES

Borjas ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Tsuruya

Borjaslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Tsuruya

Borjasattempts / min

Control time

Tsuruya

Borjas% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Rei Tsuruya	6.4	1.9	2.0	0.98	40%	3
R1	Kevin Borjas	3.5	2.9	3.2	0.13	4%	6
R2	Rei Tsuruya	7.8	2.4	2.0	1.00	61%	2
R2	Kevin Borjas	4.0	3.5	7.9	0.12	4%	6
R3	Rei Tsuruya	4.8	1.7	3.0	0.90	10%	2
R3	Kevin Borjas	5.3	4.3	6.8	0.20	9%	4

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.