Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Waldo Cortes Acosta

edge

Curtis Blaydes

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A+

92nd

2.6

Even

A

85th

2.2

Defense

C

52nd

54%

+10

B

61st

53%

KO power

C

9 KO

0.5 KD

Even

C

13 KO

0.1 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well

Takedowns landed

D

36th

0.4

+60

A+

96th

4.6

Takedown accuracy

B

65th

50%

Even

B

65th

45%

Takedown defense

B

62nd

74%

+37

D

26th

35%

Control time

D

37th

1.4 min

+52

A+

89th

6.6 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Acosta

Acosta is the bigger submission threat on Blaydes

Submission attempts

C

50th

0.1

+26

F

24th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

65th

6%

1 sub

Even

B

64th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

D

37th

0%

Even

D

37th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both hard to finish

Finish rate

D

35th

50%

Even

D

38th

57%

KO durability

B

70th

0%

+20

C

50th

20%

Submission defense

D

37th

0%

Even

D

37th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Blaydes ▸

Blaydes pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.8

8.2

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.6

7.9

Pace trend

+15%/rd

+9%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Acosta

Acosta is in better recent form than Blaydes

Win rate (career)

77%

70%

After a win

70%

64%

Last 5

60%

40%

Win streakL1L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Blaydes ▸

Blaydes has faced the tougher schedule vs Acosta

Schedule strength

59%

73%

Win quality

65%

71%

Ranked opponents

7

16

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opps (3)1-21-2

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Acosta

Acosta has fought more often lately than Blaydes

Last bout

4mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

4

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

7

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Blaydes ▸

Blaydes 2" reach · Closed-stance matchup

Waldo Cortes AcostavsCurtis Blaydes

34

Age

1y

younger

35

6'4"

193cm

Height

Even

6'4"

193cm

78"

198cm

Reach

2"

reach

80"

203cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Waldo Cortes AcostaCurtis Blaydes

Percentile

Striking/min5.344.18

Accuracy%48%52%

Defense%54%53%

Takedowns/150.45.1

TD defense%73%35%

Submissions/150.10.0

Career rate as a percentile within the heavyweight (305 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Curtis Blaydes

63%

-185

MMA Index model

Unlock

37%

+161

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

AcostaWaldo Cortes Acosta

BlaydesCurtis Blaydes

—

As pick'em

0-10%

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

AcostaWaldo Cortes Acosta

Stat

BlaydesCurtis Blaydes

5

0

KO / TKO

8

5

0

Submission

0

5

3

Decision

6

1

11:16

Avg fight time

9:23

Waldo Cortes Acosta’s splits

vs Blaydes

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Curtis Blaydes’s splits

vs Acosta

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-30%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Waldo Cortes AcostavsCurtis Blaydes

34

Age

1y

younger

35

6'4"

193cm

Height

Even

6'4"

193cm

78"

198cm

Reach

2"

reach

80"

203cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

66th

Even

B

65th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Acosta’s offensevsBlaydes’s defense

Where Acosta attacks (green = high volume) vs where Blaydes gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Acosta’s green zones meeting Blaydes’s red zones are the openings.

Waldo Cortes AcostaOffense

Head71%88th537
Body15%67th113
Leg14%76th109

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Curtis BlaydesDefense

Head82%38th439
Body12%69th64
Leg6%74th30

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Acosta — by position

88%Standing

Standing88%669
Clinch3%24
Ground9%66

Blaydes — absorbed by position

80%Standing

Standing80%426
Clinch15%82
Ground5%25

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Acosta’s offensevsBlaydes’s defense

Head

A+

88th

49.7

+50

D

38th

35.2

Body

B

67th

11.0

Even

B

69th

6.0

Leg

A

76th

10.1

Even

A

74th

3.5

Blaydes’s offensevsAcosta’s defense

Head

A

81st

43.4

+12

B

69th

25.0

Body

C

48th

7.4

+15

D

33rd

10.7

Leg

B

69th

9.1

+62

F

7th

18.2

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Waldo Cortes Acosta	top 12% of division49.7	43%	above division average25.0	537
Head	Curtis Blaydes	top 19% of division43.4	45%	below division average35.2	575
Body	Waldo Cortes Acosta	above division average11.0	69%	below division average10.7	113
Body	Curtis Blaydes	around division average7.4	86%	above division average6.0	88
Leg	Waldo Cortes Acosta	top 24% of division10.1	80%	bottom of the division18.2	109
Leg	Curtis Blaydes	above division average9.1	89%	top 26% of division3.5	121

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Curtis Blaydes

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

54th

+9

B

64th

Blaydes has the grappling edge (+9).

Takedowns

C

43rd

0.4

+50

A+

93rd

4.6

Takedown accuracy

B

65th

50%

4/8

Even

B

65th

45%

58/128

Takedown defense

B

62nd

74%

17/23

+37

D

26th

35%

7/20

Submission threat

C

57th

0.1

Even

C

51st

0.0

Control time

C

44th

1.4 min

+39

A

83rd

6.6 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Waldo Cortes Acosta	Curtis Blaydes
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.44	4.658
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	50%4 / 8	45%58 / 128
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	74%17 / 23	35%7 / 20
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.11	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.4 min13:51	6.6 min82:38
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.0 min10:13	0.7 min8:55

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Waldo Cortes Acosta

63

Schedule Score

Curtis Blaydes

80

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

146 min

13 bouts

Octagon time

42 min

more

188 min

20 bouts

Schedule strength

59%

73%

Win quality

65%

71%

Ranked opponents

7

16

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Waldo Cortes Acosta	Curtis Blaydes
Champion	—	1-3
Top-5	2-2	6-3
Ranked 6–15	3-1	6-0
Cross-div ranked	1-0	—
Unproven	4-0	1-0, 1 NC

Waldo Cortes Acosta — bouts

Curtis Blaydes — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Curtis Blaydes

Acosta — last 5

recent → old

Blaydes — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

2-3

Current streak

L1

Even

L1

Ranked opps

5 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Curtis Blaydes

Post-result bounce

SituationAcosta Blaydes

After a loss

2-0100%

5-0100%

After a win

7-370%

9-564%

Camp length

SituationAcosta Blaydes

Short turnaround< 100 days

5-183%

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

3-260%

8-280%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-0100%

5-363%

Title fights

SituationAcosta Blaydes

All title fightschallenger or champ

—

0-10%

As challengerfor the belt

—

0-10%

Rematches

SituationAcosta Blaydes

All rematchesany repeat opponent

—

0-20%

Revenge boutslost the first

—

0-10%

Encore boutswon the first

—

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Curtis Blaydes

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Acosta10W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Blaydes13W–5L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑9%·Blaydes

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑9%·Blaydes

F

14th

59%

+8

F

22nd

68%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

50%

28%

KO durability

↑20%·Acosta

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑20%·Acosta

A+

86th

0%

+32

C

54th

20%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

64th

0%

Even

B

64th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Waldo Cortes Acosta	Curtis Blaydes
Wins
by KO / TKO	9(53%)	13(68%)
by submission	1(6%)	0(0%)
by decision	7(41%)	6(32%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	5(83%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	3(100%)	1(17%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Waldo Cortes Acosta

vs

Curtis Blaydes

43%

6 KO/TKO in 14 bouts

Knockout rate

40%

8 KO/TKO in 20 bouts

6

1.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

0.3 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

5

1.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Waldo Cortes AcostaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Curtis BlaydesFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Tom Aspinall2y 1mo ago
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024 · R1 · 1:00
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Waldo Cortes Acosta

146%

R3 vs R1 · 8 bouts reaching R3

Curtis Blaydes

100%

R3 vs R1 · 8 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Acosta leans harder: Acosta builds (+15% per round through round 3), Blaydes builds (+10% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Acosta lifts to 146% of round-1 output by round 3, Blaydes 100%.

Acosta ▲ BUILDS

Blaydes ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Acosta

Blaydeslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Acosta

Blaydesattempts / min

Control time

Acosta

Blaydes% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Waldo Cortes Acosta	4.5	3.8	3.1	0.07	14%	13
R1	Curtis Blaydes	7.4	3.7	2.7	0.70	39%	20
R2	Waldo Cortes Acosta	6.7	6.3	3.7	0.04	7%	10
R2	Curtis Blaydes	8.3	4.7	2.9	0.66	41%	16
R3	Waldo Cortes Acosta	6.3	5.9	4.2	0.05	6%	8
R3	Curtis Blaydes	9.0	5.2	3.3	0.55	52%	8
R4	Waldo Cortes Acosta	—	—	—	—	—	—
R4	Curtis Blaydes	7.5	1.0	2.4	1.20	73%	1
R5	Waldo Cortes Acosta	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Curtis Blaydes	7.1	1.4	1.2	1.00	69%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.