Rafael Tobias Record, Stats & Next Fight

UFC fight history

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Event	Date
L	Diyar Nurgozhay Light Heavyweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2	Mar 7, 2026

Outside the UFC

14-1across 15 bouts · 11 promotions · wins by 5 KO · 6 sub · 3 decSpartacus MMA · Dana White's Contender Series · TKO Palmas · FFC 79 · FMS +6

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Promotion	Date
W	Jair de Oliveira7-1	Submission	rear-naked choke	R1	3:46	Dana White's Contender Series	Sep 23, 2025
W	Wellington Silva Lopes12-5	KO/TKO	Leg Kicks	R2	0:00	TKO Palmas	Apr 12, 2025
W	Marcelo Nunez11-6	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	1:10	FFC 79	Aug 1, 2024
W	Willyanedson Paiva11-7-1	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	FMS	Apr 21, 2024
W	Guilherme Lopes Cunha0-2	Submission	Arm-Triangle Choke	R1	1:11	Fighter Stars	Apr 6, 2024
W	Luis Andrade de Oliveira4-12	Submission	Guillotine Choke	R1	2:03	Castro Fight	Nov 9, 2023
L	Miguel Porto5-3	KO/TKO	Punch	R2	2:02	LFA	Jul 7, 2023
W	Diego Frigotto6-7	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	2:08	Spartacus MMA	Apr 15, 2023
W	Rick Martin0-1	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R1	4:00	Spartacus MMA	Mar 25, 2023
W	Nathan Oliveira7-6	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	Spartacus MMA	Oct 29, 2022
W	Alexandre Borges0-2	KO/TKO	—	R1	2:37	Spartacus MMA	Sep 10, 2022
W	Haroldo Mesquita1-2	Submission	Keylock	R1	0:04	Spartacus MMA	Aug 20, 2022
W	Sombay Silvino3-3	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	CWB Fight League	Jul 28, 2022
W	Guilherme Cena0-1	Submission	Arm-Triangle Choke	R2	3:10	BFS 8	Apr 16, 2022
W	Roger Freitas1-1	KO/TKO	Corner Stoppage	R1	3:00	Metanoia Fight Combat	Mar 12, 2022

Non-UFC bouts (regional/other promotions) and Dana White’s Contender Series — shown for context only, excluded from Schedule Score, striking/grappling rates, and every UFC-scoped metric.

Method of victory & defeat

KO / TKO

5 wins, 1 loss

W5

L1

Submission

6 wins, 0 losses

W6

L0

Decision

3 wins, 1 loss

W3

L1

Finishes

UFC KOs

0

Below avg · 16%Light Heavyweight

Knockdowns / fight

0.00

Below avg · 0.26Light Heavyweight

UFC submissions

0

Below avg · 8%Light Heavyweight

Submission attempts / fight

1.00

Above avg · 0.26Light Heavyweight

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability (UFC; clean KOs only).

Rafael Tobias

PowerChin

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO wins

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.00 per 100 head

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.00 per 100 head

Chin gauges use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Never finished by strikes · Never submittedin the UFC

Decision behavior

Judging

1 scorecard on file

Rafael Tobias

Scorecard luck

Wrong end of the cards

No split or majority decisions on file — this read comes from contested rounds alone. Judges have given them 0 of 2 rounds they disagreed on (0%).

Coin-flip decisions

Split + majority

None on file

Swing rounds

Judges disagreed

0–2

Won – Lost

0% went their way

Unanimous1 decision · 100%

1L

Split

None

Majority

None

10-8 rounds

None scoredno 10-8 rounds in this fighter’s decisions

Most frequent judges

All judges →

Scorecard data ingested from MMA Decisions

Career striking

OverallD33rd

36%39 / 101

Striking accuracy

35%

Striking defense

Sig. strikes / min-3.04 differential

Landed2.77

Absorbed5.81

68%str + td

Defensive rating

Striking edge

-29%accuracy vs opp. landing

worseevenbetter

Striking zones

Per-15-minute breakdown — where this fighter lands, and where they get hit.

UFC only

Rafael Tobias

Landed per 15

Head

C

50th

29.0

50th

Body

D

37th

7.0

37th

Leg

D

25th

3.0

25th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Absorbed per 15

Head

C

46th

33.0

46th

Body

F

0th

37.0

0th

Leg

F

2nd

24.0

2nd

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Career totals — landed / attempted

Landed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	29.0	29	86	34%
Body	7.0	7	10	70%
Leg	3.0	3	5	60%

Absorbed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	33.0	33	71	46%
Body	37.0	37	47	79%
Leg	24.0	24	25	96%

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Percentiles vs the division; absorbed is inverted so higher is better.

Grappling

Per-15-minute breakdown of takedowns, submissions, and ground control.

UFC only

Rafael Tobias

25%

Takedown accuracy

100%

Takedown defense

Control / 15 min+1.1 min net

On top2.5

On bottom1.5

Offense

Takedowns

B

67th

2.0

67th

TD accuracy

D

37th

25%

37th

Sub attempts

A

74th

1.0

74th

Control

C

57th

2.5 min

57th

Defense

TD defense

100%

Controlled

1.5 min

Career totals — landed / attempted, control time

Offense

Takedowns	2 / 8
Submission attempts	1
Control time	2:31

Defense

TDs defended	1 / 1
Control absorbed	1:28

Rates above are per 15 minutes of UFC fight time (15min total). Value colors reflect the per-15 rate’s percentile against the current weight class baseline; raw totals without a division reference stay neutral.

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Rafael Tobias

1 UFC bout (per‑round) · 15 min

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Tobias hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable pace pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.

TobiasOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs — splitting them out shows whether the work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control, and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Tobiaslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Tobiasattempts / min

Control time

Tobias% of round

Round	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	2.0	2.0	7.2	0.00	0%	1
R2	8.2	3.2	5.4	1.20	35%	1
R3	4.4	2.6	6.2	0.40	16%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked across the UFC. Recent fights weighted heavier.

UFC only

Rafael Tobias

1 resolved UFC bout

Schedule Score

28/ 100

0255075100

Schedule strength

F

0th

8%

0th

Win quality

C

58th

42%

58th

Limited UFC sample (1 bout). The headline Schedule Score is held toward a rookie baseline until a fighter has 6+ UFC bouts — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule. The component bars above are not down-weighted.

Opponent quality distribution

Every UFC bout, grouped by who the opponent was at the time.

1

UnprovenFewer than 3 fights, or sub-.40 win rate

Tier	Bouts	Record	Win rate
Unproven	1	0-1	0%

Highest-quality opponents

Toughest opponents on the scheduleScore, scored at the time of the fight.

L
Diyar Nurgozhay
Mar 7, 2026 · Light Heavyweight
8
quality

Pre-UFC opposition

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

61-58-1

.513 win rate

Winning-record opponents

5 of 14

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

14

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

All bouts — opponent quality bout-by-bout

Res	Opponent	Tier	Score	Date
L	Diyar Nurgozhay	Unproven	8	Mar 7, 2026

Per-bout quality scoring: champion = 100; same-division ranks 1–5 = 90 → 78 linear; ranks 6–15 = 75 → 60 linear; cross-division champion = 78; cross-division ranked = 45; title-fight challenger (no rank signal) = 50, bumped to 65 when opp had an elite career UFC record at the time. Unranked opponents are scored on UFC record-at-time (long-tenured vet 60, contender-level 45, established 30, building 18, unproven 8). P4P top-10 at time adds +5; top-3 adds +8 (capped at 100). The Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) and quality wins (35%), then is held toward a rookie baseline for fighters with limited UFC experience so a thin résumé reads honestly low.

Career cohorts

1 resolved UFC bouts

Performance broken down by situation — camp length, response to the previous result, title-fight presence, and rematches. Computed across every completed UFC bout.

Camp length

Days between fights

Short turnaround

< 100 days

—

Typical camp

100–180 days

—

Long layoff

> 180 days

—

UFC debut

first UFC bout

0-1

1 bout

Post-result bounce

Performance based on the previous UFC result

After a loss

next bout after a defeat

—

After a win

next bout after a win

—

First UFC bout

no precedent

0-1

1 bout

Title fights

Performance with a belt on the line

All title fights

as challenger or champion

—

As champion

defending the belt

—

As challenger

fighting for the belt

—

Rematches

Performance when meeting an opponent again

All rematches

any second meeting

—

Revenge bouts

lost the first meeting

—

Encore bouts

won the first meeting

—

Activity & layoff

Last fight, activity, and divisional context.

Time since last UFC bout

4 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Rafael Tobias

Active

4 monthssince last bout

vs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 7, 2026

DraftKings fantasy scoring

DFSAs favorite 0-1

32.7

DK avg

32.7

Median

32.7

Ceiling

32.7

Floor

0%

Boom

0%

Bust

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