Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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16 fighters · / 100- 1
Mario Bautista5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 2
Aiemann Zahabi4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 3
Rob Font5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 4
Aljamain Sterling3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 5
Raoni Barcelos3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 6
Song Yadong3-3 as underdog · 50%43.1 - 7
Douglas Silva de Andrade3-4 as underdog · 43%39.2 - 8
Davey Grant4-6 as underdog · 40%37.9 - 9
Alatengheili2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 10
Chris Gutierrez2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 11
Cody Garbrandt3-5 as underdog · 38%35.9 - 12
Jose Aldo2-4 as underdog · 33%33.1 - 13
Deiveson Figueiredo2-4 as underdog · 33%33.1 - 14
Vince Morales2-6 as underdog · 25%27.6 - 15
Cody Gibson1-4 as underdog · 20%25.7 - 16
Marlon Vera2-8 as underdog · 20%23.7