Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Alessandro Costa

edge

Cody Durden

Striking

◂ Costa

Costa out-strikes Durden

Effective offense

B

61st

1.7

+12

C

49th

1.4

Defense

C

50th

56%

+19

D

31st

50%

KO power

C

6 KO

0.6 KD

+17

D

6 KO

0.1 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Durden ▸

Durden has the bigger wrestling edge on Costa

Takedowns landed

D

39th

1.0

+54

A+

93rd

4.0

Takedown accuracy

D

40th

27%

+34

A

74th

49%

Takedown defense

A

82nd

84%

+42

D

40th

57%

Control time

D

28th

1.3 min

+63

A+

91st

5.7 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Costa

Costa is the bigger submission threat on Durden

Submission attempts

C

53rd

0.5

+9

B

62nd

0.6

Sub win rate

A

74th

40%

6 subs

+8

B

66th

33%

6 subs

Submission defense

C

47th

0%

+18

D

29th

18%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Costa

Costa is more likely to finish Durden

Finish rate

A

78th

100%

+31

C

47th

29%

KO durability

D

28th

29%

+10

D

38th

13%

Submission defense

C

47th

0%

+23

F

25th

27%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Durden ▸

Durden pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

4.8

6.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.4

6.5

Pace trend

-13%/rd

-7%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Costa

Costa is in better recent form than Durden

Win rate (career)

57%

47%

After a win

33%

50%

Last 5

60%

20%

Win streakW2W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

29%

31%

Win quality

37%

41%

Ranked opponents

2

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opps (2)2-01-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

1mo

2mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

Even

3

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

7

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Durden 8 cm · Costa 5y younger · Open-stance matchup

Alessandro CostavsCody Durden

30

Age

5y

younger

35

5'4"

163cm

Height

3"

taller

5'7"

170cm

67"

170cm

Reach

Even

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Alessandro CostaCody Durden

Percentile

Striking/min3.733.24

Accuracy%45%44%

Defense%56%50%

Takedowns/150.84.0

TD defense%86%56%

Submissions/150.40.7

Career rate as a percentile within the flyweight (172 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 14m ago

Alessandro Costa

Consensus

68%▲ 68

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Costa

Kalshi68¢bestSportsbook-23568%

Cody Durden

Consensus

32%▲ 32

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Durden

Kalshi32¢bestSportsbook+20032%

Costa 68%32% Durden

$14k vol · $13k OI$8k vol · $8k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Alessandro Costa

28%+210

16%+425

22%+295

Cody Durden

10%+800

7%+1200

18%+390

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Alessandro Costa

28%+210

16%+425

22%+295

Cody Durden

10%+800

7%+1200

18%+390

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over46%+102
Under54%-135

Goes the distance

Yes41%+129
No59%-169

UFC betting history

Career

CostaAlessandro Costa

DurdenCody Durden

—

As pick'em

1-0100%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

CostaAlessandro Costa

Stat

DurdenCody Durden

4

2

KO / TKO

1

2

0

Submission

1

4

0

1

Decision

5

2

9:00

Avg fight time

9:47

Alessandro Costa’s splits

vs Durden

vs Orthodox

4-357%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

3-260%

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Cody Durden’s splits

vs Costa

vs Southpaw

1-233%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

6-555%

vs Shorter reach

0-20%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Alessandro CostavsCody Durden

30

Age

5y

younger

35

5'4"

163cm

Height

3"

taller

5'7"

170cm

67"

170cm

Reach

Even

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

54th

+16

D

39th

Costa has the striking edge (+16).

Attacking

Costa’s offensevsDurden’s defense

Where Costa attacks (green = high volume) vs where Durden gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Costa’s green zones meeting Durden’s red zones are the openings.

Alessandro CostaOffense

Head61%64th155
Body19%62nd48
Leg21%70th53

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Cody DurdenDefense

Head64%36th409
Body18%50th116
Leg18%30th112

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Costa — by position

74%Standing

Standing74%190
Clinch9%22
Ground17%44

Durden — absorbed by position

83%Standing

Standing83%527
Clinch8%54
Ground9%56

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Costa’s offensevsDurden’s defense

Head

B

64th

34.1

+28

D

36th

37.2

Body

B

62nd

11.1

+12

C

50th

11.0

Leg

A

70th

10.7

+41

D

30th

10.0

Durden’s offensevsCosta’s defense

Head

B

65th

34.5

+23

C

42nd

34.8

Body

D

33rd

7.2

Even

D

36th

13.0

Leg

C

51st

7.0

+9

C

43rd

8.3

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Alessandro Costa	above division average34.1	42%	below division average34.8	155
Head	Cody Durden	above division average34.5	39%	below division average37.2	384
Body	Alessandro Costa	above division average11.1	71%	below division average13.0	48
Body	Cody Durden	below division average7.2	72%	around division average11.0	67
Leg	Alessandro Costa	top 30% of division10.7	72%	below division average8.3	53
Leg	Cody Durden	around division average7.0	80%	below division average10.0	73

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Alessandro Costa

Cody Durden

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

55th

+15

B

70th

Durden has the grappling edge (+15).

Takedowns

C

49th

1.0

+37

A+

86th

4.0

Takedown accuracy

D

40th

27%

4/15

+34

A

74th

49%

43/87

Takedown defense

A

82nd

84%

21/25

+42

D

40th

57%

13/23

Submission threat

C

58th

0.5

Even

B

62nd

0.6

Control time

C

45th

1.3 min

+41

A+

86th

5.7 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Alessandro Costa	Cody Durden
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.04	4.043
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	27%4 / 15	49%43 / 87
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	84%21 / 25	57%13 / 23
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.52	0.67
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.3 min5:34	5.7 min61:31
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	3.8 min16:01	2.1 min22:15

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Alessandro Costa

Cody Durden

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Costa

2-0

2-0

1-1

1-1

Both won

Edge · Costa

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Alessandro Costa

35

Schedule Score

Cody Durden

36

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

63 min

7 bouts

Octagon time

99 min

more

162 min

16 bouts

Schedule strength

29%

31%

Win quality

37%

41%

Ranked opponents

2

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Alessandro Costa	Cody Durden
Champion	—	0-1
Top-5	0-1	—
Top-15	0-1	1-3-1
Cross-div ranked	1-0	1-0
Building	—	3-3
Unproven	3-1	2-1

Alessandro Costa — bouts

Cody Durden — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Alessandro Costa

Cody Durden

Costa — last 5

recent → old

Durden — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

1-4

Current streak

W2

W1

Ranked opps

1 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

34 d

3 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Alessandro Costa

Cody Durden

Post-result bounce

SituationCosta Durden

After a loss

3-0100%

4-450%

After a win

1-233%

3-350%

Camp length

SituationCosta Durden

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-0100%

4-180%

Typical camp100–180 days

1-150%

1-517%

Long layoff> 180 days

2-167%

2-250%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Alessandro Costa

Cody Durden

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Costa13W–3L by finish · 69% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Durden12W–7L by finish · 75% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑13%·Costa

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑13%·Costa

A

72nd

80%

+22

C

50th

67%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

25%

32%

KO durability

↑8%·Durden

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑8%·Durden

F

18th

15%

+22

D

40th

7%

Submission defense

↑18%·Costa

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑18%·Costa

B

64th

0%

+53

F

11th

18%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Alessandro Costa	Cody Durden
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(40%)	6(33%)
by submission	6(40%)	6(33%)
by decision	3(20%)	6(33%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	3(60%)	2(20%)
by submission	0(0%)	5(50%)
by decision	2(40%)	3(30%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Alessandro Costa

vs

Cody Durden

50%

4 KO/TKO in 8 bouts

Knockout rate

6%

1 KO/TKO in 16 bouts

4

2.6 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.3 / 100 head

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

1.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

4

1.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Alessandro CostaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Alden Coria9 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025 · R3 · 0:47
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Cody DurdenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Jose Ochoa1 year ago
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025 · R2 · 0:11
Last time submitted
vs Allan Nascimento8 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 1, 2025 · R2 · 3:13

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Alessandro Costa

119%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Cody Durden

89%

R3 vs R1 · 8 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Durden leans harder: Durden fades (-7% per round through round 3), Costa fades (-13% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Costa lifts to 119% of round-1 output by round 3, Durden 89%.

Costa ▼ FADES

Durden ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Costa

Durdenlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Costa

Durdenattempts / min

Control time

Costa

Durden% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Alessandro Costa	5.0	4.5	3.8	0.15	2%	7
R1	Cody Durden	6.8	3.6	3.1	0.53	41%	16
R2	Alessandro Costa	5.8	4.0	3.4	0.31	21%	6
R2	Cody Durden	6.2	3.4	4.8	0.57	30%	13
R3	Alessandro Costa	3.7	2.5	4.9	0.38	3%	3
R3	Cody Durden	5.9	2.5	4.3	0.53	44%	8

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.