Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane — Heavyweight title fight at UFC Freedom 250
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Rounds
- 5 × 5 min
- Venue
- White House · Washington, D.C.
Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- Pereira49%-105
- Gane51%-115
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 11priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
12 bouts · vs Gane
- KO/TKO8
- Submission0
- Decision2
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision1
- Average11:04
- vs Orthodox7-1
- vs Southpaw2-0
- vs Switch1-1
- vs Longer reach3-1
- vs Shorter reach5-0
12 bouts · vs Pereira
- KO/TKO4
- Submission2
- Decision4
- KO/TKO0
- Submission1
- Decision1
- Average14:15
- vs Orthodox9-2
- vs Southpaw1-0
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reach0-2
- vs Shorter reach9-0
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Alex Pereira | Ciryl Gane |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 880% | 440% |
| by submission | 00% | 220% |
| by decision | 220% | 440% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 150% | 00% |
| by submission | 00% | 150% |
| by decision | 150% | 150% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 3:32 | R3 0:38 |
| Finishes used in avg | 8 | 6 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Magomed Ankalaev7 months agoUFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Oct 4, 2025 · R1 · 1:20
- Last time KO'dvs Israel Adesanya3y 1mo agoUFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 8, 2023 · R2 · 4:21
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Serghei Spivac2y 8mo agoUFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 2, 2023 · R2 · 3:44
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Don'Tale Mayes6y 7mo agoUFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Oct 26, 2019 · R3 · 4:46
- Last time submittedvs Jon Jones3y 2mo agoUFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 4, 2023 · R1 · 2:04
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Alex Pereira | Ciryl Gane |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 2-0 | 0-1, 1 NC |
| Top-5 | 5-2 | 5-0 |
| Top-15 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Title-fight elite | — | 0-1 |
| Building | 1-0 | — |
| Unproven | 1-0 | 3-0 |
- W vs Magomed AnkalaevCHAMP100Oct 4, 2025 · Champion
- L vs Magomed Ankalaev#190Mar 8, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Khalil Rountree Jr.#872Oct 5, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Jiri Prochazka#190Jun 29, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Jamahal Hill#190Apr 13, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Jiri Prochazka#190Nov 11, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Jan Blachowicz#190Jul 29, 2023 · Top-5
- L vs Israel Adesanya#195Apr 8, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Israel AdesanyaCHAMP100Nov 12, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Sean Strickland#481Jul 2, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Bruno Silva18Mar 12, 2022 · Building
- W vs Andreas Michailidis8Nov 6, 2021 · Unproven
- NC vs Tom AspinallCHAMP100Oct 25, 2025 · Champion
- W vs Alexander Volkov#384Dec 7, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Serghei Spivac#773Sep 2, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Jon Jones65Mar 4, 2023 · Title-fight elite
- W vs Tai Tuivasa#384Sep 3, 2022 · Top-5
- L vs Francis NgannouCHAMP100Jan 22, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Derrick Lewis#287Aug 7, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Alexander Volkov#578Jun 26, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik#384Feb 27, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Junior Dos Santos#773Dec 12, 2020 · Top-15
- W vs Tanner Boser8Dec 21, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Don'Tale Mayes8Oct 26, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Raphael Pessoa8Aug 10, 2019 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Alex Pereira | 36.5above division average | 50% | 27.6above division average | 323 |
| Head | Ciryl Gane | 34.3above division average | 46% | 13.6elite — top of division | 391 |
| Body | Alex Pereira | 20.2top 10% of division | 81% | 12.9well below average | 179 |
| Body | Ciryl Gane | 21.8top 6% of division | 77% | 7.81above division average | 248 |
| Leg | Alex Pereira | 20.7elite — top of division | 80% | 12.0well below average | 183 |
| Leg | Ciryl Gane | 22.8elite — top of division | 88% | 12.0well below average | 260 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Ciryl Gane | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1 / 8 |
| Takedown accuracy | 50% | 25% | 1/2 · 8/32 |
| Takedown defense | 79% | 44% | stopped 34/43 · 7/16 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2 / 7 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 0.3 min | 1.4 min | 2:38 · 16:03 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 3.5 min | 1.2 min | 31:01 · 14:14 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Pereira: Pereira actually builds to 181% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Gane actually builds to 161% — a 20-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Alex Pereira | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 1% | 12 |
| R1 | Ciryl Gane | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.14 | 9% | 12 |
| R2 | Alex Pereira | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 0.03 | 2% | 9 |
| R2 | Ciryl Gane | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.24 | 8% | 10 |
| R3 | Alex Pereira | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 0.04 | 5% | 5 |
| R3 | Ciryl Gane | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.10 | 10% | 8 |
| R4 | Alex Pereira | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 0% | 3 |
| R4 | Ciryl Gane | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.13 | 1% | 3 |
| R5 | Alex Pereira | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 0.00 | 0% | 2 |
| R5 | Ciryl Gane | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.47 | 20% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Ciryl has 9 months more layoff
- Sergei Pavlovich knocks out Alex Pereira’s 6ft 7in sparring partner in 39 seconds at UFC Macaubloodyelbow · May 30, 2026
- Joe Rogan warns Alex Pereira that he’ll face a new ‘issue’ at heavyweightbloodyelbow · May 29, 2026
- Watch every Alex Pereira UFC fight before he attempts history at the White Housemmaweekly · May 28, 2026
- UFC heavyweight Tallison Teixeira details experience sparring against Alex Pereirasherdog · May 27, 2026
- Alex Pereira’s sparring footage concerns former UFC championsherdog · May 26, 2026
- Alex Pereira says he feels “the exact same” at 250 pounds before Ciryl Gane clashlowkickmma · May 26, 2026