Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje — Lightweight title fight at UFC Freedom 250
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Rounds
- 5 × 5 min
- Venue
- White House · Washington, D.C.
Markets
Prices from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market — each figure is the real-money implied probability that fighter wins, set by live trading. “Books” is the de-vigged sportsbook consensus shown for comparison.
- Topuria83%-625
- Gaethje17%+455
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 15priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
9 bouts · vs Gaethje
- KO/TKO6
- Submission1
- Decision2
- KO/TKO—
- Submission—
- Decision—
- Average9:22
- vs Orthodox5-0
- vs Southpaw2-0
- vs Switch2-0
- vs Longer reach6-0
- vs Shorter reachno data
15 bouts · vs Topuria
- KO/TKO6
- Submission0
- Decision4
- KO/TKO3
- Submission2
- Decision0
- Average12:09
- vs Orthodox6-4
- vs Southpaw2-1
- vs Switch2-0
- vs Longer reach10-2
- vs Shorter reach0-1
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 667% | 660% |
| by submission | 111% | 00% |
| by decision | 222% | 440% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 0 | 360% |
| by submission | 0 | 240% |
| by decision | 0 | 00% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R2 1:19 | R2 2:57 |
| Finishes used in avg | 7 | 6 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Charles Oliveira11 months agoUFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025 · R1 · 2:27
- Last time KO'dNever finished by strikes in the UFC
- Last submission scoredvs Bryce Mitchell3y 5mo agoUFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022 · R2 · 3:10
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Dustin Poirier2y 10mo agoUFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023 · R2 · 1:00
- Last time KO'dvs Max Holloway2y 1mo agoUFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · R5 · 4:59
- Last submission scoredNo submission wins in the UFC yet
- Last time submittedvs Charles Oliveira4 years agoUFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 7, 2022 · R1 · 3:22
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Top-5 | 3-0 | 6-2 |
| Top-15 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| Cross-div ranked | — | 0-1 |
| Building | 1-0 | — |
| Unproven | 2-0 | — |
- W vs Charles Oliveira#287Jun 28, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Max Holloway#287Oct 26, 2024 · Top-5
- W vs Alexander VolkanovskiCHAMP100Feb 17, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Josh Emmett#578Jun 24, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Bryce Mitchell#970Dec 10, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Jai Herbert8Mar 19, 2022 · Unproven
- W vs Ryan Hall#1462Jul 10, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Damon Jackson8Dec 5, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Youssef Zalal18Oct 10, 2020 · Building
- W vs Paddy Pimblett#578Jan 24, 2026 · Top-5
- W vs Rafael Fiziev#1167Mar 8, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Max Holloway45Apr 13, 2024 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Dustin Poirier#287Jul 29, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Rafael Fiziev#675Mar 18, 2023 · Top-15
- L vs Charles OliveiraCHAMP100May 7, 2022 · Champion
- W vs Michael Chandler#481Nov 6, 2021 · Top-5
- L vs Khabib NurmagomedovCHAMP100Oct 24, 2020 · Champion
- W vs Tony Ferguson#195May 9, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Donald Cerrone#481Sep 14, 2019 · Top-5
- W vs Edson Barboza#675Mar 30, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs James Vick#1068Aug 25, 2018 · Top-15
- L vs Dustin Poirier#578Apr 14, 2018 · Top-5
- L vs Eddie Alvarez#486Dec 2, 2017 · Top-5
- W vs Michael Johnson#578Jul 7, 2017 · Top-5
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Ilia Topuria | 51.3top 9% of division | 43% | 31.7around division average | 288 |
| Head | Justin Gaethje | 62.8elite — top of division | 50% | 58.6bottom of the division | 762 |
| Body | Ilia Topuria | 12.3above division average | 65% | 13.7well below average | 69 |
| Body | Justin Gaethje | 10.8above division average | 77% | 32.9bottom of the division | 131 |
| Leg | Ilia Topuria | 8.55above division average | 79% | 12.1well below average | 48 |
| Leg | Justin Gaethje | 23.6elite — top of division | 89% | 14.2bottom of the division | 287 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 11 / 4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 61% | 40% | 11/18 · 4/10 |
| Takedown defense | 94% | 74% | stopped 15/16 · 20/27 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 6 / 0 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 3.3 min | 1.0 min | 18:48 · 11:45 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 0.9 min | 0.3 min | 5:01 · 4:05 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Topuria: Topuria actually builds to 137% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Gaethje actually builds to 128% — a 9-point gap in late-round pace.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ilia Topuria | 5.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 0.25 | 21% | 9 |
| R1 | Justin Gaethje | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 0.03 | 4% | 15 |
| R2 | Ilia Topuria | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 0.04 | 16% | 6 |
| R2 | Justin Gaethje | 7.7 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.06 | 10% | 11 |
| R3 | Ilia Topuria | 7.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 0.35 | 29% | 3 |
| R3 | Justin Gaethje | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 0.10 | 6% | 8 |
| R4 | Ilia Topuria | 12.0 | 11.2 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 19% | 1 |
| R4 | Justin Gaethje | 6.7 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 0.06 | 9% | 4 |
| R5 | Ilia Topuria | 5.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.60 | 51% | 1 |
| R5 | Justin Gaethje | 6.3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 0.00 | 8% | 3 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace. See Methods for the full formula.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Ilia has 6 months more layoff
- Ilia Topuria’s ‘special rose’ for Justin Gaethje revealed in new UFC White House promo: ‘So cold’bloodyelbow · May 30, 2026
- Justin Gaethje’s UFC White House underdog status is the result of ‘trendy’ Ilia Topuria support says teammatebloodyelbow · May 29, 2026
- Ilia Topuria gets a laugh out of brave UFC White House prediction from Justin Gaethje’s managerbloodyelbow · May 29, 2026
- Ilia Topuria warns Arman Tsarukyan: ‘You’ve never faced a fighter like me’mmamania · May 29, 2026
- Justin Gaethje explains how to avoid Ilia Topuria shots that KO’d Oliveira, Holloway and Volkanovskibloodyelbow · May 28, 2026
- Islam Makhachev: Don’t count out ‘old warhorse’ Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria at UFC White Housemmafighting · May 28, 2026