Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Casey O'Neill

edge

Eduarda Moura

Striking

◂ O'Neill

O'Neill out-strikes Moura

Effective offense

A+

97th

4.1

+86

F

11th

1.0

Defense

D

39th

57%

+40

A

79th

58%

KO power

D

4 KO

0.1 KD

Even

D

4 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Moura ▸

Moura has the bigger wrestling edge on O'Neill

Takedowns landed

B

59th

1.4

+38

A+

97th

3.6

Takedown accuracy

D

40th

35%

Even

D

37th

33%

Takedown defense

B

62nd

70%

+12

A

74th

80%

Control time

B

69th

3.8 min

+23

A+

92nd

6.2 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

A

75th

0.7

+34

D

41st

0.2

Sub win rate

C

53rd

18%

2 subs

+26

A

79th

42%

5 subs

Submission defense

D

38th

8%

+10

C

48th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ O'Neill

O'Neill is more likely to finish Moura

Finish rate

A

77th

67%

+24

C

53rd

33%

KO durability

D

41st

0%

Even

D

41st

0%

Submission defense

D

28th

13%

+20

C

48th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ O'Neill

O'Neill pushes the higher work rate over the fight — O'Neill's pace builds while Moura's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

9.9

6.4

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

9.6

7.0

Pace trend

+10%/rd

-13%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ O'Neill

O'Neill is in better recent form than Moura

Win rate (career)

75%

60%

After a win

80%

33%

Last 5

60%

Even

60%

Win streakW2L1

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ O'Neill

O'Neill has faced the tougher schedule vs Moura

Schedule strength

56%

45%

Win quality

69%

51%

Ranked opponents

5

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

5mo

7mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

1

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ O'Neill

O'Neill 2" reach · O'Neill 3 cm · O'Neill 4y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Casey O'NeillvsEduarda Moura

28

Age

4y

younger

32

5'6"

168cm

Height

1"

taller

5'5"

165cm

69"

175cm

Reach

2"

reach

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Casey O'NeillEduarda Moura

Percentile

Striking/min7.892.57

Accuracy%52%37%

Defense%57%58%

Takedowns/151.43.6

TD defense%70%80%

Submissions/150.70.4

Career rate as a percentile within the women's flyweight (74 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Eduarda Moura, from opponents’ full pro records

Eduarda Moura

Developmental

Opponents' combined record

23-42-1

.354 win rate

Winning-record opponents

0 of 8

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

8

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

O'NeillCasey O'Neill

MouraEduarda Moura

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

O'NeillCasey O'Neill

Stat

MouraEduarda Moura

3

0

KO / TKO

1

0

1

Submission

0

2

1

Decision

2

10:44

Avg fight time

13:27

Casey O'Neill’s splits

vs Moura

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Eduarda Moura’s splits

vs O'Neill

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

2-250%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Casey O'NeillvsEduarda Moura

28

Age

4y

younger

32

5'6"

168cm

Height

1"

taller

5'5"

165cm

69"

175cm

Reach

2"

reach

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

56th

+14

D

41st

O'Neill has the striking edge (+14).

Attacking

O'Neill’s offensevsMoura’s defense

Where O'Neill attacks (green = high volume) vs where Moura gets hit (red = vulnerable) — O'Neill’s green zones meeting Moura’s red zones are the openings.

Casey O'NeillOffense

Head77%98th519
Body14%67th94
Leg9%72nd64

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Eduarda MouraDefense

Head50%73rd89
Body30%52nd53
Leg20%44th36

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

O'Neill — by position

81%Standing

Standing81%550
Clinch5%31
Ground14%96

Moura — absorbed by position

74%Standing

Standing74%132
Clinch17%31
Ground8%15

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

O'Neill’s offensevsMoura’s defense

Head

A+

98th

72.0

+24

A

73rd

27.6

Body

B

67th

15.5

+15

C

52nd

12.5

Leg

A

72nd

10.7

+28

C

44th

8.4

Moura’s offensevsO'Neill’s defense

Head

C

53rd

35.0

+38

F

15th

53.9

Body

F

12th

7.0

+28

D

40th

14.8

Leg

D

26th

5.6

+36

B

62nd

7.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Casey O'Neill	elite — top of division72.0	47%	well below average53.9	519
Head	Eduarda Moura	around division average35.0	35%	top 27% of division27.6	153
Body	Casey O'Neill	above division average15.5	78%	below division average14.8	94
Body	Eduarda Moura	bottom of the division7.0	73%	around division average12.5	11
Leg	Casey O'Neill	top 28% of division10.7	94%	above division average7.0	64
Leg	Eduarda Moura	well below average5.6	93%	below division average8.4	13

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Casey O'Neill

Eduarda Moura

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

58th

+8

B

67th

Moura has the grappling edge (+8).

Takedowns

B

58th

1.4

+34

A+

92nd

3.6

Takedown accuracy

D

40th

35%

8/23

Even

D

37th

33%

16/48

Takedown defense

B

62nd

70%

14/20

+12

A

74th

80%

8/10

Submission threat

B

69th

0.7

+22

C

47th

0.2

Control time

B

63rd

3.8 min

+21

A

84th

6.2 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Casey O'Neill	Eduarda Moura
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.48	3.616
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	35%8 / 23	33%16 / 48
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	70%14 / 20	80%8 / 10
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.74	0.21
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.8 min21:30	6.2 min27:54
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.8 min10:03	1.5 min6:36

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Casey O'Neill

61

Schedule Score

Eduarda Moura

43

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

86 min

8 bouts

Octagon time

19 min

more

67 min

5 bouts

Schedule strength

56%

45%

Win quality

69%

51%

Ranked opponents

5

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Casey O'Neill	Eduarda Moura
Top-5	1-1	1-0
Ranked 6–15	3-1	0-1
Cross-div ranked	1-0	0-1
Established	—	1-0
Unproven	1-0	1-0

Casey O'Neill — bouts

Eduarda Moura — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Casey O'Neill

Eduarda Moura

O'Neill — last 5

recent → old

Moura — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

Even

3-2

Current streak

W2

L1

Ranked opps

3 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

7 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Casey O'Neill

Eduarda Moura

Camp length

SituationO'Neill Moura

Typical camp100–180 days

3-0100%

1-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

2-250%

1-233%

Post-result bounce

SituationO'Neill Moura

After a loss

1-150%

1-0100%

After a win

4-180%

1-233%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Casey O'Neill

Eduarda Moura

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

O'Neill6W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Moura9W–0L by finish · 78% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑20%·Moura

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑20%·Moura

C

47th

55%

+27

A

74th

75%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

46%

36%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

B

61st

0%

Even

B

61st

0%

Submission defense

↑8%·Moura

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑8%·Moura

D

38th

8%

+26

B

64th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Casey O'Neill	Eduarda Moura
Wins
by KO / TKO	4(36%)	4(33%)
by submission	2(18%)	5(42%)
by decision	5(45%)	3(25%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	0(0%)
by submission	1(50%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(50%)	2(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Casey O'Neill

vs

Eduarda Moura

38%

3 KO/TKO in 8 bouts

Knockout rate

17%

1 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

1

0.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

1.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Casey O'NeillFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Ariane da Silva2y 8mo ago
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023 · R2 · 1:18

Eduarda MouraFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Casey O'Neill

121%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Eduarda Moura

90%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to O'Neill: O'Neill builds (+10% per round through round 3) while Moura fades (-13% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, O'Neill lifts to 121% of round-1 output by round 3, Moura 90%.

O'Neill ▲ BUILDS

Moura ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

O'Neill

Mouralanded / min

Takedown attempts

O'Neill

Mouraattempts / min

Control time

O'Neill

Moura% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Casey O'Neill	8.5	6.8	6.0	0.31	19%	8
R1	Eduarda Moura	6.8	2.9	2.2	0.68	45%	5
R2	Casey O'Neill	10.8	8.7	4.7	0.27	32%	7
R2	Eduarda Moura	7.3	2.6	2.2	0.76	61%	5
R3	Casey O'Neill	10.5	8.9	5.9	0.17	27%	4
R3	Eduarda Moura	5.1	2.4	3.7	0.70	16%	4

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.