Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Grant Dawson

edge

Nurullo Aliev

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

B

67th

1.6

+18

C

49th

1.2

Defense

C

50th

44%

+30

A

80th

58%

KO power

D

5 KO

0.1 KD

+13

F

2 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Aliev ▸

Aliev has the bigger wrestling edge on Dawson

Takedowns landed

A+

92nd

3.6

Even

A+

91st

3.5

Takedown accuracy

C

56th

39%

+26

A

82nd

58%

Takedown defense

C

57th

70%

+14

A

70th

80%

Control time

A+

99th

9.8 min

Even

A+

99th

8.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Dawson

Dawson is the bigger submission threat on Aliev

Submission attempts

A

84th

1.2

+27

C

57th

0.5

Sub win rate

A+

90th

58%

14 subs

+33

C

57th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

52nd

0%

Even

C

51st

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Dawson

Dawson is more likely to finish Aliev

Finish rate

B

62nd

58%

+38

F

24th

0%

KO durability

C

46th

14%

+12

B

59th

0%

Submission defense

C

52nd

0%

Even

C

48th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Dawson

Dawson pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

7.6

5.5

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.6

5.7

Pace trend

+0%/rd

-3%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Aliev ▸

Aliev is in better recent form than Dawson

Win rate (career)

86%

100%

After a win

82%

100%

Last 5

80%

100%

Win streakW1W5

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Dawson

Dawson has faced the tougher schedule vs Aliev

Schedule strength

37%

20%

Win quality

64%

Even

66%

Ranked opponents

3

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

4mo

1mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

Even

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Aliev ▸

Aliev 5y younger · Switch-stance wrinkle

Grant DawsonvsNurullo Aliev

32

Age

5y

younger

27

5'10"

178cm

Height

Even

5'10"

178cm

72"

183cm

Reach

Even

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Grant DawsonNurullo Aliev

Percentile

Striking/min3.142.72

Accuracy%51%44%

Defense%44%58%

Takedowns/153.62.1

TD defense%66%80%

Submissions/151.40.3

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (426 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Nurullo Aliev, from opponents’ full pro records

Nurullo Aliev

Strong

Opponents' combined record

55-28-2

.663 win rate

Winning-record opponents

5 of 7

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

7

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

DawsonGrant Dawson

AlievNurullo Aliev

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

DawsonGrant Dawson

Stat

AlievNurullo Aliev

2

KO / TKO

0

—

5

0

Submission

0

—

5

0

Decision

4

—

11:03

Avg fight time

15:00

Grant Dawson’s splits

vs Aliev

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

0-10%

vs Longer reach

4-180%

vs Shorter reach

7-188%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Nurullo Aliev’s splits

vs Dawson

vs Orthodox

3-0100%

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

2-0100%

vs Shorter reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Grant DawsonvsNurullo Aliev

32

Age

5y

younger

27

5'10"

178cm

Height

Even

5'10"

178cm

72"

183cm

Reach

Even

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

52nd

Even

C

51st

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Dawson’s offensevsAliev’s defense

Where Dawson attacks (green = high volume) vs where Aliev gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Dawson’s green zones meeting Aliev’s red zones are the openings.

Grant DawsonOffense

Head69%60th362
Body19%50th100
Leg13%46th66

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Nurullo AlievDefense

Head44%78th44
Body32%54th32
Leg24%54th24

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Dawson — by position

50%Standing

Standing50%265
Clinch10%52
Ground40%211

Aliev — absorbed by position

81%Standing

Standing81%81
Clinch6%6
Ground13%13

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Dawson’s offensevsAliev’s defense

Head

B

60th

31.6

+18

A

78th

20.5

Body

C

50th

9.1

Even

C

54th

9.1

Leg

C

46th

6.3

Even

C

54th

7.0

Aliev’s offensevsDawson’s defense

Head

C

47th

26.8

+19

B

66th

24.2

Body

D

33rd

6.6

+28

B

61st

8.2

Leg

D

31st

4.1

+41

A

72nd

4.7

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Grant Dawson	above division average31.6	45%	above division average24.2	362
Head	Nurullo Aliev	around division average26.8	39%	top 22% of division20.5	97
Body	Grant Dawson	around division average9.1	64%	above division average8.2	100
Body	Nurullo Aliev	below division average6.6	64%	around division average9.1	16
Leg	Grant Dawson	around division average6.3	85%	top 28% of division4.7	66
Leg	Nurullo Aliev	below division average4.1	56%	around division average7.0	5

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Grant Dawson

Nurullo Aliev

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

76th

Even

A

78th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

A+

88th

3.6

Even

A

83rd

3.5

Takedown accuracy

C

56th

39%

41/105

+26

A

82nd

58%

14/24

Takedown defense

C

57th

70%

7/10

+14

A

70th

80%

8/10

Submission threat

A

81st

1.2

+21

B

61st

0.5

Control time

A+

99th

9.8 min

Even

A+

91st

8.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Grant Dawson	Nurullo Aliev
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	3.641	3.514
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	39%41 / 105	58%14 / 24
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	70%7 / 10	80%8 / 10
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.214	0.52
Control time / 15 (min)career total	9.8 min110:26	8.8 min35:13
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.1 min12:05	0.8 min3:02

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Grant Dawson

Nurullo Aliev

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Jun 1, 2024

Aliev

Jan 11, 2025

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

W

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Grant Dawson

46

Schedule Score

Nurullo Aliev

35

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

170 min

15 bouts

Octagon time

110 min

more

60 min

4 bouts

Schedule strength

37%

20%

Win quality

64%

66%

Ranked opponents

3

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Grant Dawson	Nurullo Aliev
Ranked 6–15	2-2	—
Established	6-0	2-0
Building	3-0-1	—
Unproven	1-0	2-0

Grant Dawson — bouts

Nurullo Aliev — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Grant Dawson

Nurullo Aliev

Dawson — last 5

recent → old

Aliev — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

5-0

Current streak

W1

W5

Ranked opps

1 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

30 d

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Grant Dawson

Nurullo Aliev

Post-result bounce

SituationDawson Aliev

After a loss

2-0100%

—

After a win

8-280%

3-0100%

Camp length

SituationDawson Aliev

Short turnaround< 100 days

2-167%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

3-0100%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

6-186%

3-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Grant Dawson

Nurullo Aliev

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Dawson19W–3L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Aliev2W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑61%·Dawson

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑61%·Dawson

C

51st

79%

+46

F

6th

18%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

19%

82%

KO durability

↑11%·Aliev

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑11%·Aliev

C

51st

11%

+22

A

73rd

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

A

73rd

0%

Even

B

70th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Grant Dawson	Nurullo Aliev
Wins
by KO / TKO	5(21%)	2(18%)
by submission	14(58%)	0(0%)
by decision	5(21%)	9(82%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	3(100%)	0
by submission	0(0%)	0
by decision	0(0%)	0

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Grant Dawson

vs

Nurullo Aliev

13%

2 KO/TKO in 16 bouts

Knockout rate

20%

1 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

1

0.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

3

1.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Grant DawsonFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Manuel Torres8 months ago
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Dec 6, 2025 · R1 · 2:25
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Nurullo AlievFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Grant Dawson

104%

R3 vs R1 · 10 bouts reaching R3

Nurullo Aliev

95%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

No clear cardio edge — Dawson holds steady (0% per round through round 3) and Aliev holds steady (-3% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Dawson sustains 104% of round-1 output by round 3, Aliev 95%.

Dawson — HOLDS

Aliev — HOLDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Dawson

Alievlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Dawson

Alievattempts / min

Control time

Dawson

Aliev% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Grant Dawson	7.5	2.8	1.6	0.65	69%	15
R1	Nurullo Aliev	5.5	1.6	1.1	0.45	63%	4
R2	Grant Dawson	7.7	3.2	2.4	0.65	65%	13
R2	Nurullo Aliev	5.9	1.9	1.8	0.40	69%	4
R3	Grant Dawson	7.5	3.5	2.7	0.54	60%	10
R3	Nurullo Aliev	5.2	2.4	2.1	0.35	44%	4

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.