Justin Gaethje Record, Stats & Next Fight

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Promotion	Date
W	Luiz Firmino20-10	KO/TKO	Doctor Stoppage	R3	5:00	WSOF 34	Dec 31, 2016
W	Brian Foster30-13	KO/TKO	Leg Kicks	R1	1:43	WSOF 29	Mar 12, 2016
W	Luis Palomino27-17	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	4:30	WSOF 23	Sep 18, 2015
W	Luis Palomino27-17	KO/TKO	Leg Kicks and Punches	R3	3:57	WSOF 19	Mar 28, 2015
W	Melvin Guillard33-24-2	Decision	Split	R3	5:00	WSOF 15	Nov 15, 2014
W	Nick Newell16-4	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	3:09	WSOF 11	Jul 5, 2014
W	Richard Patishnock8-6	KO/TKO	Punches and Elbows	R1	1:09	WSOF 8	Jan 18, 2014
W	Dan Lauzon17-6	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	1:40	WSOF 6	Oct 26, 2013
W	Brian Cobb20-9	KO/TKO	Leg Kicks	R3	2:19	WSOF 3	Jun 14, 2013
W	Gesias Cavalcante22-12-1	KO/TKO	Doctor Stoppage	R1	2:27	WSOF 2	Mar 23, 2013
W	Adrian Valdez1-7	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	0:19	RITC	Nov 16, 2012
W	Drew Fickett43-23	KO/TKO	Punch	R1	0:12	RITC	Oct 20, 2012
W	Sam Young0-1	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R2	1:58	RITC	Sep 29, 2012
W	Marcus Edwards14-6	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	ROF 43	Jun 2, 2012
W	Donnie Bell8-3	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	2:57	ROF 42	Dec 17, 2011
W	Joe Kelso1-7	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	4:32	BTT MMA 2	Oct 1, 2011
W	Kevin Croom23-15	KO/TKO	Slam	R1	1:01	ROF 41	Aug 20, 2011

Non-UFC bouts (regional/other promotions) — shown for context only, excluded from Schedule Score, striking/grappling rates, and every UFC-scoped metric.

Amateur

7-0across 7 amateur bouts · 7 promotionsROF 40 · ROF 38 · FTW · ROF 35 · RITC 127 +2

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Promotion	Date
W	Aaron Carter3-6	KO/TKO	Knees	R3	1:48	ROF 40	Apr 16, 2011
W	Scott Cleve15-6	Decision	Split	R3	3:00	ROF 38	Jun 5, 2010
W	Steve Hanna8-3	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	1:01	FTW	Apr 17, 2010
W	Kevin Gonzales0-3	Submission	Armbar	R1	1:20	ROF 35	Aug 1, 2009
W	Nick Rhoads9-5	Submission	Armbar	R3	2:07	RITC 127	May 16, 2009
W	Austin Greer1-0	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	1:56	VFC 27	May 1, 2009
W	Ben DeAnda2-1	KO/TKO	Punch	R1	0:27	BUTS	Aug 2, 2008

Amateur (pre-professional) bouts — shown for context only and excluded from the professional record and every UFC-scoped metric.

Method of victory & defeat

KO / TKO

20 wins, 3 losses

W20

L3

Submission

1 win, 2 losses

W1

L2

Decision

6 wins, 0 losses

W6

L0

Finishes

UFC KOs

7

Above avg · 10%Lightweight

Knockdowns / fight

0.56

Above avg · 0.21Lightweight

UFC submissions

0

Below avg · 6%Lightweight

Submission attempts / fight

0.00

Below avg · 0.44Lightweight

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability (UFC; clean KOs only).

Justin Gaethje

PowerChin

Knockout rate

44%

7 KO/TKO wins

Knockdowns dealt

9

1.07 per 100 head

Clean KO losses

3

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Knockdowns absorbed

4

0.52 per 100 head

Chin gauges use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Decision behavior

Judging

2 scorecards on file

Justin Gaethje

Scorecard luck

Even on close calls

No split or majority decisions on file — this read comes from contested rounds alone. Judges have given them 1 of 2 rounds they disagreed on (50%).

Coin-flip decisions

Split + majority

None on file

Swing rounds

Judges disagreed

1–1

Won – Lost

50% went their way

Unanimous2 decisions · 100%

2W

Split

None

Majority

None

10-8 rounds

None scoredno 10-8 rounds in this fighter’s decisions

Most frequent judges

All judges →

Scorecard data ingested from MMA Decisions

Career striking

OverallB61st

58%1,271 / 2,208

Striking accuracy

51%

Striking defense

Sig. strikes / min-0.57 differential

Landed6.48

Absorbed7.05

63%str + td

Defensive rating

Striking edge

+9%accuracy vs opp. landing

worseevenbetter

Strike maps

Sig. strikes by target

Head66%93rd841
Body11%57th139
Leg23%93rd291

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Sig. strikes by position

84%Standing

Standing84%1,065
Clinch13%162
Ground3%44

Striking zones

Per-15-minute breakdown — where this fighter lands, and where they get hit.

UFC only

Justin Gaethje

Landed per 15

Head

A+

94th

62.4

94th

Body

C

57th

10.3

57th

Leg

A+

97th

21.6

97th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Absorbed per 15

Head

F

9th

56.8

9th

Body

F

1st

32.4

1st

Leg

F

17th

13.2

17th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Career totals — landed / attempted

Landed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	62.4	841	1,696	50%
Body	10.3	139	183	76%
Leg	21.6	291	329	88%

Absorbed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	56.8	766	2,038	38%
Body	32.4	437	556	79%
Leg	13.2	178	207	86%

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Percentiles vs the division; absorbed is inverted so higher is better.

Grappling

Per-15-minute breakdown of takedowns, submissions, and ground control.

UFC only

Justin Gaethje

27%

Takedown accuracy

73%

Takedown defense

Control / 15 min+0.5 min net

On top1.0

On bottom0.5

Offense

Takedowns

D

28th

0.3

28th

TD accuracy

D

36th

27%

36th

Sub attempts

D

39th

0.0

39th

Control

D

28th

1.0 min

28th

Defense

TD defense

B

67th

73%

67th

Controlled

0.5 min

Career totals — landed / attempted, control time

Offense

Takedowns	4 / 15
Submission attempts	0
Control time	13:17

Defense

TDs defended	22 / 30
Control absorbed	6:37

Rates above are per 15 minutes of UFC fight time (202min total). Value colors reflect the per-15 rate’s percentile against the current weight class baseline; raw totals without a division reference stay neutral.

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Justin Gaethje

16 UFC bouts (per‑round) · 202 min

118%

R3 pace · 9 bouts

Gaethje holds steady (-2% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Gaethje lifts to 118% of round-1 output by round 3 (9 bouts).

Gaethje — HOLDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs — splitting them out shows whether the work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control, and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Gaethjelanded / min

Takedown attempts

Gaethjeattempts / min

Control time

Gaethje% of round

Round	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	6.5	6.1	6.8	0.07	3%	16
R2	7.3	6.7	7.3	0.08	9%	12
R3	6.9	6.4	6.3	0.09	7%	9
R4	6.6	5.8	6.9	0.10	11%	5
R5	6.3	5.9	7.1	0.00	8%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked across the UFC. Recent fights weighted heavier.

UFC only

Justin Gaethje

16 resolved UFC bouts · 15 ranked at the time

Schedule Score

91/ 100

0255075100

Schedule strength

A+

99th

85%

99th

Win quality

A+

97th

74%

97th

Opponent quality distribution

Every UFC bout, grouped by who the opponent was at the time.

4

9

3

ChampionHeld the title in this weight class at the time
Top-5Ranked #1–#5 at the time
Ranked 6–15Ranked #6–#15 at the time

Tier	Bouts	Record	Win rate
Champion	4	1-3	25%
Top-5	9	7-2	78%
Ranked 6–15	3	3-0	100%

Highest-quality opponents

Toughest opponents on the scheduleScore, scored at the time of the fight.

All bouts — opponent quality bout-by-bout

Res	Opponent	Tier	Score	Date
W	Ilia TopuriaCHAMP	Champion	100	Jun 14, 2026
W	Paddy Pimblett#5	Top-5	78	Jan 24, 2026
W	Rafael Fiziev#11	Ranked 6–15	72	Mar 8, 2025
L	Max Holloway	Top-5	76	Apr 13, 2024
W	Dustin Poirier#2	Top-5	92	Jul 29, 2023
W	Rafael Fiziev#6	Ranked 6–15	75	Mar 18, 2023
L	Charles OliveiraCHAMP	Champion	100	May 7, 2022
W	Michael Chandler#4	Top-5	81	Nov 6, 2021
L	Khabib NurmagomedovCHAMP	Champion	100	Oct 24, 2020
W	Tony Ferguson#1	Top-5	95	May 9, 2020
W	Donald Cerrone#4	Top-5	85	Sep 14, 2019
W	Edson Barboza#6	Top-5	81	Mar 30, 2019
W	James Vick#10	Ranked 6–15	68	Aug 25, 2018
L	Dustin Poirier#5	Top-5	89	Apr 14, 2018
L	Eddie Alvarez#4	Champion	95	Dec 2, 2017
W	Michael Johnson#5	Top-5	78	Jul 7, 2017

Per-bout quality scoring: champion = 100; same-division ranks 1–5 = 90 → 78 linear; ranks 6–15 = 75 → 60 linear; cross-division champion = 78; cross-division ranked = 45; title-fight challenger (no rank signal) = 50, bumped to 65 when opp had an elite career UFC record at the time. Unranked opponents are scored on UFC record-at-time (long-tenured vet 60, contender-level 45, established 30, building 18, unproven 8). P4P top-10 at time adds +5; top-3 adds +8 (capped at 100). The Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) and quality wins (35%), then is held toward a rookie baseline for fighters with limited UFC experience so a thin résumé reads honestly low.

Career cohorts

16 resolved UFC bouts

Performance broken down by situation — camp length, response to the previous result, title-fight presence, and rematches. Computed across every completed UFC bout.

Camp length

Days between fights

Short turnaround

< 100 days

—

Typical camp

100–180 days

4-3

7 bouts

Long layoff

> 180 days

6-2

8 bouts

UFC debut

first UFC bout

1-0

1 bout

Post-result bounce

Performance based on the previous UFC result

After a loss

next bout after a defeat

4-1

5 bouts

After a win

next bout after a win

6-4

10 bouts

First UFC bout

no precedent

1-0

1 bout

Title fights

Performance with a belt on the line

All title fights

as challenger or champion

3-1

4 bouts

As champion

defending the belt

1-1

2 bouts

As challenger

fighting for the belt

2-0

2 bouts

Rematches

Performance when meeting an opponent again

All rematches

any second meeting

2-0

2 bouts

Revenge bouts

lost the first meeting

1-0

1 bout

Encore bouts

won the first meeting

1-0

1 bout

Activity & layoff

Last fight, activity, and divisional context.

Time since last bout

2 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Justin Gaethje

Active

2 monthssince last bout

vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 14, 2026

Fight-by-fight odds & scoring

DFSAs favorite 2-2As underdog 9-3

80.00

DK avg

92.70

Median

111.80

Ceiling

41.20

Floor

56%

Boom

13%

Bust

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Every Justin Gaethje fight: closing line, result, DK score

All 16 UFC bouts, sortable and filterable — what the market priced them at, how the fight ended, and the fantasy points it produced.

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