Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.

Ilia Topuria

edge

Justin Gaethje

Striking

◂ Topuria

Topuria out-strikes Gaethje

Effective offense

A+

85th

2.3

+13

A+

98th

3.8

Defense

B

64th

64%

+42

F

22nd

51%

KO power

B

7 KO

0.8 KD

Even

B

20 KO

0.6 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Topuria

Topuria has the bigger wrestling edge on Gaethje

Takedowns landed

B

67th

2.0

+46

F

21st

0.3

Takedown accuracy

A

83rd

61%

+28

C

56th

40%

Takedown defense

A+

88th

94%

+19

B

69th

74%

Control time

B

62nd

3.3 min

+41

F

21st

1.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Topuria

Topuria is the bigger submission threat on Gaethje

Submission attempts

A

80th

1.1

+62

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

62nd

11%

1 sub

Even

C

58th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

49th

0%

+13

D

36th

13%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Topuria

Topuria is more likely to finish Gaethje

Finish rate

A

73rd

78%

+10

B

63rd

60%

KO durability

B

62nd

0%

+22

D

39th

20%

Submission defense

C

49th

0%

+13

D

36th

13%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over five rounds — Topuria's pace builds late

Work rate / min — full fight

6.3

6.8

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.8

7.0

Pace trend

+13%/rd

-2%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Topuria

Topuria is in better recent form than Gaethje

Win rate (career)

100%

67%

After a win

100%

56%

Last 5

100%

80%

Win streakW5W2

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

75%

82%

Win quality

100%

69%

Ranked opponents

6

14

Title-holder bouts

1

2

Common opps (2)2-00-2

See full Schedule →

Activity

Gaethje ▸

Gaethje is fresher and more active than Topuria

Last bout

12mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

Even

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Gaethje 10 cm · Topuria 8y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Ilia TopuriavsJustin Gaethje

29

Age

8y

younger

37

5'7"

170cm

Height

4"

taller

5'11"

180cm

69"

175cm

Reach

1"

reach

70"

178cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”

Core metrics

The shape of the matchup at a glance — each fighter's career rates as a percentile within the division. Descriptive, not a prediction.

Ilia TopuriaJustin Gaethje

TopuriaPercentileGaethje

Striking/min4.816.48

Accuracy%48%58%

Defense%64%51%

Takedowns/152.00.3

TD defense%93%74%

Submissions/151.10.0

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (419 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated just now

Ilia Topuria

Consensus

80%▼ 6

Best price to bet Topuria

Kalshi80¢bestSportsbook-50080%

Justin Gaethje

Consensus

20%▲ 2

Best price to bet Gaethje

Kalshi21¢Sportsbook+37520%

Topuria 80%20% Gaethje

$897k vol · $815k OI$4.6M vol · $4.1M OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Ilia Topuria

58%-205

13%+563

8%+1000

Justin Gaethje

14%+525

3%+2950

5%+1800

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Ilia Topuria

58%-205

13%+563

8%+1000

Justin Gaethje

14%+525

3%+2950

5%+1800

Total rounds

Line · 3.5

Over20%+350
Under80%-625

Goes the distance

Yes13%+650
No87%-1157

UFC betting history

Career

TopuriaIlia Topuria

GaethjeJustin Gaethje

7-0100%

As favorite

2-250%

2-0100%

As underdog

8-373%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts.

Career splits

TopuriaIlia Topuria

Stat

GaethjeJustin Gaethje

6

—

KO / TKO

6

3

1

—

Submission

0

2

—

Decision

4

0

9:22

Avg fight time

12:09

Ilia Topuria’s splits

vs Gaethje

vs Orthodox

5-0100%

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Longer reach

8-0100%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Justin Gaethje’s splits

vs Topuria

vs Orthodox

6-460%

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Longer reach

10-283%

vs Shorter reach

0-20%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Ilia TopuriavsJustin Gaethje

29

Age

8y

younger

37

5'7"

170cm

Height

4"

taller

5'11"

180cm

69"

175cm

Reach

1"

reach

70"

178cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

A

71st

+9

B

62nd

Topuria has the striking edge (+9).

Attacking

Topuria’s offensevsGaethje’s defense

Where Topuria attacks (green = high volume) vs where Gaethje gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Topuria’s green zones meeting Gaethje’s red zones are the openings.

Ilia TopuriaOffense

Head71%84th288
Body17%64th69
Leg12%60th48

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Justin GaethjeDefense

Head55%11th711
Body31%2nd400
Leg13%17th173

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Topuria — by position

79%Standing

Standing79%319
Clinch3%12
Ground18%74

Gaethje — absorbed by position

90%Standing

Standing90%1,162
Clinch9%110
Ground1%12

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Topuria’s offensevsGaethje’s defense

Head

A

84th

43.9

+73

F

11th

53.5

Body

B

64th

11.5

+62

F

2nd

28.5

Leg

B

60th

8.3

+43

F

17th

13.1

Gaethje’s offensevsTopuria’s defense

Head

A+

93rd

56.3

+46

C

47th

32.1

Body

B

60th

10.7

+31

D

29th

12.6

Leg

A+

95th

20.5

+69

D

26th

10.8

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Ilia Topuria	top 16% of division43.9	43%	around division average32.1	288
Head	Justin Gaethje	top 7% of division56.3	50%	bottom of the division53.5	762
Body	Ilia Topuria	above division average11.5	65%	well below average12.6	69
Body	Justin Gaethje	above division average10.7	77%	bottom of the division28.5	131
Leg	Ilia Topuria	above division average8.3	79%	well below average10.8	48
Leg	Justin Gaethje	elite — top of division20.5	89%	well below average13.1	287

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

UFC only

Ilia Topuria

Justin Gaethje

Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

74th

+30

C

44th

Topuria holds a decisive grappling edge (+30).

Takedowns

B

65th

2.0

+35

D

29th

0.3

Takedown accuracy

A

83rd

61%

11/18

+28

C

56th

40%

4/10

Takedown defense

A+

88th

94%

15/16

+19

B

69th

74%

20/27

Submission threat

A

76th

1.1

+37

D

39th

0.0

Control time

B

59th

3.3 min

+31

D

28th

1.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Ilia Topuria	Justin Gaethje
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	2.011	0.34
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	61%11 / 18	40%4 / 10
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	94%15 / 16	74%20 / 27
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.16	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.3 min18:48	1.0 min11:45
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.9 min5:01	0.3 min4:05

All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Ilia Topuria

Justin Gaethje

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Topuria

2-0

2-0

0-2

0-2

Edge · Topuria

Edge · Topuria

Schedule Score

Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.

UFC only

Ilia Topuria

90

Schedule Score

Justin Gaethje

86

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

84 min

9 bouts

Octagon time

98 min

more

182 min

15 bouts

Schedule strength

75%

82%

Win quality

100%

69%

Ranked opponents

6

14

Title-holder bouts

1

2

Opponent quality distribution

every UFC bout, bucketed by who the opponent was at the time

Ilia Topuria

9 bouts

3

1

3

1

Justin Gaethje

15 bouts

3

9

3

Champion

Top-5

Top-15

Established

Building

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Ilia Topuria	Justin Gaethje
Champion	3-0	0-3
Top-5	1-0	7-2
Top-15	3-0	3-0
Established	1-0	—
Building	1-0	—

Ilia Topuria — bouts

Justin Gaethje — bouts

All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.

Ilia Topuria

Justin Gaethje

Topuria — last 5

recent → old

Gaethje — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

4-1

Current streak

W5

W2

Ranked opps

5 of 5

4 of 5

Layoff

12 mo

5 mo

Finishing & durability

How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

Ilia Topuria

Justin Gaethje

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Topuria7W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Gaethje6W–5L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑10%·Topuria

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑10%·Topuria

A

74th

88%

+14

B

60th

78%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

12%

19%

KO durability

↑9%·Topuria

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑9%·Topuria

A

78th

0%

+36

D

42nd

9%

Submission defense

↑6%·Topuria

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Topuria

B

65th

0%

+21

C

44th

6%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Ilia Topuria	Justin Gaethje
Wins
by KO / TKO	7(41%)	20(74%)
by submission	8(47%)	1(4%)
by decision	2(12%)	6(22%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0	3(60%)
by submission	0	2(40%)
by decision	0	0(0%)

Full professional career, sourced from the Sherdog-backed method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

Finish-time and round-by-round numbers are UFC-only and don’t change with this toggle.

KO history

UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.

Ilia Topuria

vs

Justin Gaethje

67%

6 KO/TKO in 9 bouts

Knockout rate

40%

6 KO/TKO in 15 bouts

7

2.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

9

1.2 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

3

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.6 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

3

0.4 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Ilia TopuriaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Justin GaethjeFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Max Holloway2y 2mo ago
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · R5 · 4:59
Last time submitted
vs Charles Oliveira4y 1mo ago
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 7, 2022 · R1 · 3:22

Pace & fade

How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.

UFC only

Ilia Topuria

137%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Justin Gaethje

128%

R3 vs R1 · 8 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Topuria: Topuria builds (+13% per round through round 3) while Gaethje holds steady (-1% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Topuria lifts to 137% of round-1 output by round 3, Gaethje 128%.

Topuria ▲ BUILDS

Gaethje — HOLDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Topuria

Gaethjelanded / min

Takedown attempts

Topuria

Gaethjeattempts / min

Control time

Topuria

Gaethje% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Ilia Topuria	5.7	4.1	3.7	0.25	21%	9
R1	Justin Gaethje	6.3	6.1	6.8	0.03	4%	15
R2	Ilia Topuria	6.0	5.2	4.3	0.04	16%	6
R2	Justin Gaethje	7.7	7.1	7.1	0.06	10%	11
R3	Ilia Topuria	7.3	5.1	4.7	0.35	29%	3
R3	Justin Gaethje	7.2	6.6	6.9	0.10	6%	8
R4	Ilia Topuria	12.0	11.2	2.6	0.00	19%	1
R4	Justin Gaethje	6.7	6.1	8.0	0.06	9%	4
R5	Ilia Topuria	5.4	1.6	2.0	0.60	51%	1
R5	Justin Gaethje	6.3	5.9	7.1	0.00	8%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.