Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.

Alex Pereira

edge

Ciryl Gane

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A+

95th

3.2

Even

A+

96th

3.2

Defense

C

51st

53%

+30

A

82nd

60%

KO power

B

11 KO

0.6 KD

+18

C

6 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Pereira's takedown defense neutralizes Gane — no real edge either way

Takedowns landed

D

30th

0.1

+15

C

45th

0.7

Takedown accuracy

50%

25%

Takedown defense

A

74th

79%

+43

D

31st

44%

Control time

F

13th

0.3 min

+24

D

37th

1.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

C

58th

0.2

+13

A

71st

0.6

Sub win rate

B

65th

0%

0 subs

Even

A

71st

20%

2 subs

Submission defense

D

35th

0%

Even

D

28th

8%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Pereira

Pereira is more likely to finish Gane

Finish rate

C

54th

80%

+12

D

42nd

60%

KO durability

B

64th

8%

Even

A

71st

0%

Submission defense

D

35th

0%

Even

D

28th

8%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over five rounds — Pereira's pace builds while Gane's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

5.6

6.0

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.1

6.1

Pace trend

+6%/rd

-4%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

83%

Even

83%

After a win

78%

Even

78%

Last 5

80%

75%

Win streakW1—

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Pereira

Pereira has faced the tougher schedule vs Gane

Schedule strength

87%

80%

Win quality

98%

81%

Ranked opponents

10

9

Title-holder bouts

2

Even

2

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Pereira

Pereira has fought more often lately than Gane

Last bout

8mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

1

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Gane ▸

Gane 2" reach · Closed-stance matchup

Alex PereiravsCiryl Gane

38

Age

2y

younger

36

6'4"

193cm

Height

Even

6'4"

193cm

79"

201cm

Reach

2"

reach

81"

206cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”

Core metrics

The shape of the matchup at a glance — each fighter's career rates as a percentile within the division. Descriptive, not a prediction.

Alex PereiraCiryl Gane

PereiraPercentileGane

Striking/min5.165.29

Accuracy%62%61%

Defense%53%60%

Takedowns/150.10.7

TD defense%79%47%

Submissions/150.20.6

Career rate as a percentile within the heavyweight (270 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 10m ago

Alex Pereira

Consensus

50%▼ 2

Best price to bet Pereira

Kalshi51¢bestSportsbook-11050%

Ciryl Gane

Consensus

50%▲ 1

Best price to bet Gane

Kalshi50¢bestSportsbook-11050%

Pereira 50%50% Gane

$1.6M vol · $1.4M OI$321k vol · $278k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Alex Pereira

36%+135

4%+2100

11%+675

Ciryl Gane

20%+320

8%+1025

22%+293

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Alex Pereira

36%+135

4%+2100

11%+675

Ciryl Gane

20%+320

8%+1025

22%+293

Total rounds

Line · 3.5

Over——
Under100%-129

Goes the distance

Yes36%+157
No64%-215

UFC betting history

Career

PereiraAlex Pereira

GaneCiryl Gane

7-188%

As favorite

10-191%

3-175%

As underdog

0-10%

Line movement

Win probability over time

tap to toggle

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts.

Career splits

PereiraAlex Pereira

Stat

GaneCiryl Gane

8

1

KO / TKO

4

0

Submission

2

1

2

1

Decision

4

1

11:04

Avg fight time

14:15

Alex Pereira’s splits

vs Gane

vs Orthodox

7-188%

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

1-150%

vs Longer reach

3-175%

vs Shorter reach

6-186%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Ciryl Gane’s splits

vs Pereira

vs Orthodox

9-282%

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-20%

vs Shorter reach

9-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Alex PereiravsCiryl Gane

38

Age

2y

younger

36

6'4"

193cm

Height

Even

6'4"

193cm

79"

201cm

Reach

2"

reach

81"

206cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense mapped against the other's defense — where one attacks meets where the other gets hit, across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

A

72nd

Even

A

76th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Pereira’s offensevsGane’s defense

Where Pereira attacks (green = high volume) vs where Gane gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Pereira’s green zones meeting Gane’s red zones are the openings.

Alex PereiraOffense

Head47%65th323
Body26%89th179
Leg27%93rd183

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Ciryl GaneDefense

Head41%82nd155
Body23%52nd89
Leg36%21st137

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Pereira — by position

81%Standing

Standing81%554
Clinch11%72
Ground9%59

Gane — absorbed by position

94%Standing

Standing94%358
Clinch5%18
Ground1%5

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Pereira’s offensevsGane’s defense

Head

B

65th

35.5

+18

A

82nd

18.1

Body

A+

89th

17.4

+37

C

52nd

8.1

Leg

A+

93rd

17.2

+72

F

21st

11.1

Gane’s offensevsPereira’s defense

Head

C

58th

34.0

Even

C

53rd

29.4

Body

A+

92nd

19.1

+63

D

29th

12.0

Leg

A+

95th

19.5

+73

F

22nd

10.9

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Alex Pereira	above division average35.5	50%	around division average29.4	323
Head	Ciryl Gane	above division average34.0	46%	top 18% of division18.1	391
Body	Alex Pereira	top 11% of division17.4	81%	well below average12.0	179
Body	Ciryl Gane	top 8% of division19.1	77%	around division average8.1	248
Leg	Alex Pereira	top 7% of division17.2	80%	well below average10.9	183
Leg	Ciryl Gane	elite — top of division19.5	88%	well below average11.1	260

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.

UFC only

Alex Pereira

Ciryl Gane

Each metric graded on the division — the bar leans toward whoever wins that part of the grappling exchange (longer + greener = a bigger edge).

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

49th

Even

C

46th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

D

37th

0.1

+14

C

51st

0.7

Takedown accuracy

50%

1/2

D

35th

25%

8/32

Takedown defense

A

74th

79%

34/43

+43

D

31st

44%

7/16

Submission threat

B

60th

0.2

+11

A

71st

0.6

Control time

F

24th

0.3 min

+18

D

42nd

1.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Alex Pereira	Ciryl Gane
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.11	0.78
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	50%1 / 2	25%8 / 32
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	79%34 / 43	44%7 / 16
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.22	0.67
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.3 min2:38	1.4 min16:03
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	3.5 min31:01	1.2 min14:14

All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time. Accuracy under 8 career attempts is shown raw and ungraded — too small a sample to rate against the division.

Schedule Score

Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.

UFC only

Alex Pereira

97

Schedule Score

Ciryl Gane

88

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

133 min

12 bouts

Octagon time

38 min

more

171 min

12 bouts

Schedule strength

87%

80%

Win quality

98%

81%

Ranked opponents

10

9

Title-holder bouts

2

Even

2

Opponent quality distribution

every UFC bout, bucketed by who the opponent was at the time

Alex Pereira

12 bouts

9

1

Ciryl Gane

13 bouts

3

6

2

Champion

Top-5

Top-15

Cross-div ranked

Unproven

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Alex Pereira	Ciryl Gane
Champion	7-2	0-2, 1 NC
Top-5	1-0	6-0
Top-15	—	2-0
Cross-div ranked	1-0	—
Unproven	1-0	2-0

Alex Pereira — bouts

Ciryl Gane — bouts

All figures are 0–100 ratings (shown as %), not percentages of anything literal. Schedule strength = the average quality of every UFC opponent faced (win or lose). Win quality = the average quality of the opponents actually beaten. The composite Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with win quality (35%). Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, falling back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline, so debut / low-sample fighters read lower than established names. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.

Alex Pereira

Ciryl Gane

Pereira — last 5

recent → old

Gane — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

3-1

Current streak

W1

—

Ranked opps

5 of 5

4 of 5

Layoff

8 mo

Finishing & durability

How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.

Alex Pereira

Ciryl Gane

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Pereira8W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Gane6W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑16%·Pereira

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑16%·Pereira

C

54th

85%

+26

D

28th

69%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

19%

33%

KO durability

↑6%·Gane

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑6%·Gane

B

67th

6%

+14

A

81st

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

D

32nd

6%

Even

D

30th

7%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Alex Pereira	Ciryl Gane
Wins
by KO / TKO	11(85%)	6(46%)
by submission	0(0%)	3(23%)
by decision	2(15%)	4(31%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(33%)	0(0%)
by submission	1(33%)	1(50%)
by decision	1(33%)	1(50%)

Full professional career, sourced from the Sherdog-backed method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

Finish-time and round-by-round numbers are UFC-only and don’t change with this toggle.

KO history

UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.

Alex Pereira

vs

Ciryl Gane

67%

8 KO/TKO in 12 bouts

Knockout rate

33%

4 KO/TKO in 12 bouts

7

2.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

0.8 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

0.6 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Alex PereiraFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Israel Adesanya3y 2mo ago
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 8, 2023 · R2 · 4:21
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Ciryl GaneFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Jon Jones3y 3mo ago
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 4, 2023 · R1 · 2:04

Pace & fade

How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.

UFC only

Alex Pereira

181%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Ciryl Gane

161%

R3 vs R1 · 8 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Pereira: Pereira builds (+6% per round through round 5) while Gane fades (-4% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Pereira lifts to 181% of round-1 output by round 3, Gane 161%.

Pereira ▲ BUILDS

Gane ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Pereira

Ganelanded / min

Takedown attempts

Pereira

Ganeattempts / min

Control time

Pereira

Gane% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Alex Pereira	4.4	4.4	2.5	0.00	1%	12
R1	Ciryl Gane	5.3	4.5	2.1	0.14	9%	12
R2	Alex Pereira	5.7	5.5	4.6	0.03	2%	9
R2	Ciryl Gane	7.0	6.0	2.4	0.24	8%	10
R3	Alex Pereira	6.0	5.7	3.8	0.04	5%	5
R3	Ciryl Gane	7.4	6.6	2.1	0.10	10%	8
R4	Alex Pereira	5.9	5.8	3.7	0.00	0%	3
R4	Ciryl Gane	5.4	4.9	2.5	0.13	1%	3
R5	Alex Pereira	6.0	6.0	4.1	0.00	0%	2
R5	Ciryl Gane	5.0	2.8	2.3	0.47	20%	3

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.