Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Marvin Vettori

edge

Ismail Naurdiev

Striking

Naurdiev ▸

Naurdiev out-strikes Vettori

Effective offense

A

85th

2.1

Even

A

80th

1.9

Defense

C

43rd

56%

+46

A+

89th

64%

KO power

D

2 KO

0.1 KD

+23

C

13 KO

0.1 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well

Takedowns landed

C

57th

1.4

Even

C

58th

1.5

Takedown accuracy

B

62nd

44%

Even

C

56th

41%

Takedown defense

B

62nd

69%

Even

B

68th

73%

Control time

C

48th

2.8 min

Even

C

50th

2.9 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Vettori

Vettori is the bigger submission threat on Naurdiev

Submission attempts

C

50th

0.4

+11

D

39th

0.2

Sub win rate

A

77th

47%

9 subs

+13

B

63rd

24%

6 subs

Submission defense

C

46th

0%

Even

C

42nd

6%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both hard to finish

Finish rate

D

26th

22%

Even

D

29th

25%

KO durability

A

72nd

0%

Even

B

69th

0%

Submission defense

C

46th

0%

Even

C

45th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Vettori

Vettori pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Naurdiev's pace fades late

Work rate / min — full fight

5.8

5.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.7

5.3

Pace trend

+1%/rd

-13%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Naurdiev ▸

Naurdiev is in better recent form than Vettori

Win rate (career)

53%

57%

After a win

44%

0%

Last 5

20%

60%

Win streakL4W1

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Vettori

Vettori has faced the tougher schedule vs Naurdiev

Schedule strength

66%

32%

Win quality

37%

47%

Ranked opponents

9

0

Title-holder bouts

1

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

9mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

Even

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Even physically · Open-stance matchup

Marvin VettorivsIsmail Naurdiev

33

Age

3y

younger

30

6'0"

183cm

Height

Even

6'0"

183cm

74"

188cm

Reach

Even

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

On the bubbleMarvin Vettori 51% cut risk · 4-fight skid

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Marvin VettoriIsmail Naurdiev

Percentile

Striking/min4.743.66

Accuracy%45%52%

Defense%56%64%

Takedowns/151.41.5

TD defense%68%73%

Submissions/150.40.2

Career rate as a percentile within the middleweight (354 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

VettoriMarvin Vettori

NaurdievIsmail Naurdiev

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

VettoriMarvin Vettori

Stat

NaurdievIsmail Naurdiev

0

KO / TKO

1

0

2

0

Submission

0

7

8

Decision

3

17:17

Avg fight time

13:04

Marvin Vettori’s splits

vs Naurdiev

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

0-30%

vs Longer reach

6-650%

vs Shorter reach

1-233%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Ismail Naurdiev’s splits

vs Vettori

vs Orthodox

3-260%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-150%

vs Shorter reach

3-260%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Marvin VettorivsIsmail Naurdiev

33

Age

3y

younger

30

6'0"

183cm

Height

Even

6'0"

183cm

74"

188cm

Reach

Even

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

52nd

+22

A

73rd

Naurdiev has the striking edge (+22).

Attacking

Vettori’s offensevsNaurdiev’s defense

Where Vettori attacks (green = high volume) vs where Naurdiev gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Vettori’s green zones meeting Naurdiev’s red zones are the openings.

Marvin VettoriOffense

Head78%90th1,144
Body10%44th146
Leg12%67th174

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Ismail NaurdievDefense

Head76%69th122
Body11%79th17
Leg13%67th21

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Vettori — by position

87%Standing

Standing87%1,277
Clinch6%85
Ground7%102

Naurdiev — absorbed by position

79%Standing

Standing79%127
Clinch8%13
Ground13%20

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Vettori’s offensevsNaurdiev’s defense

Head

A+

90th

52.3

+21

B

69th

24.0

Body

C

44th

7.4

+35

A

79th

5.1

Leg

B

67th

8.3

Even

B

67th

4.8

Naurdiev’s offensevsVettori’s defense

Head

B

59th

29.9

+36

F

23rd

41.4

Body

A

76th

12.9

+49

D

27th

11.9

Leg

A

73rd

9.5

+61

F

13th

12.5

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Marvin Vettori	top 10% of division52.3	41%	well below average41.4	1,144
Head	Ismail Naurdiev	above division average29.9	42%	above division average24.0	183
Body	Marvin Vettori	below division average7.4	79%	well below average11.9	146
Body	Ismail Naurdiev	top 24% of division12.9	73%	top 21% of division5.1	88
Leg	Marvin Vettori	above division average8.3	90%	bottom of the division12.5	174
Leg	Ismail Naurdiev	top 27% of division9.5	80%	above division average4.8	64

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Marvin Vettori

Ismail Naurdiev

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

57th

Even

C

56th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

57th

1.4

Even

C

58th

1.5

Takedown accuracy

B

62nd

44%

29/66

Even

C

56th

41%

9/22

Takedown defense

B

62nd

69%

37/54

Even

B

68th

73%

30/41

Submission threat

C

52nd

0.4

Even

C

48th

0.2

Control time

C

49th

2.8 min

Even

C

52nd

2.9 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Marvin Vettori	Ismail Naurdiev
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.429	1.59
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	44%29 / 66	41%9 / 22
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	69%37 / 54	73%30 / 41
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.48	0.21
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.8 min57:01	2.9 min17:31
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.9 min18:32	5.2 min31:51

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Marvin Vettori

57

Schedule Score

Ismail Naurdiev

39

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

309 min

18 bouts

Octagon time

218 min

more

91 min

7 bouts

Schedule strength

66%

32%

Win quality

37%

47%

Ranked opponents

9

0

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Marvin Vettori	Ismail Naurdiev
Champion	0-3	—
Top-5	1-2	0-1
Ranked 6–15	4-3-1	—
Cross-div ranked	—	1-0
Contender-level	—	1-1
Established	1-0	—
Building	2-0	1-1
Unproven	1-0	1-0

Marvin Vettori — bouts

Ismail Naurdiev — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Marvin Vettori

Ismail Naurdiev

Vettori — last 5

recent → old

Naurdiev — last 5

recent → old

WBRAVE

SUB R1

Hadbi

Dec ’23

LBRAVE

KO R1

Kutsyi

Dec ’22

Last 5 record

1-4

3-2

Current streak

L4

W1

Ranked opps

4 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

9 mo

Even

9 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Marvin Vettori

Ismail Naurdiev

Post-result bounce

SituationVettori Naurdiev

After a loss

4-357%

3-0100%

After a win

4-450%

0-30%

Camp length

SituationVettori Naurdiev

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-233%

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

4-450%

1-233%

Long layoff> 180 days

3-260%

1-150%

Title fights

SituationVettori Naurdiev

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-10%

—

As challengerfor the belt

0-10%

—

Rematches

SituationVettori Naurdiev

All rematchesany repeat opponent

0-20%

—

Revenge boutslost the first

0-10%

—

Encore boutswon the first

0-10%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Marvin Vettori

Ismail Naurdiev

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Vettori11W–0L by finish · every finish in R1

R1

R2

R3

Naurdiev19W–4L by finish · 82% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑18%·Naurdiev

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑18%·Naurdiev

F

21st

58%

+18

D

39th

76%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

62%

30%

KO durability

↑6%·Vettori

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑6%·Vettori

A

80th

0%

Even

A

72nd

6%

Submission defense

↑6%·Vettori

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Vettori

A

72nd

0%

+10

B

62nd

6%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Marvin Vettori	Ismail Naurdiev
Wins
by KO / TKO	2(11%)	13(52%)
by submission	9(47%)	6(24%)
by decision	8(42%)	6(24%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	2(25%)
by submission	0(0%)	2(25%)
by decision	10(100%)	4(50%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Marvin Vettori

vs

Ismail Naurdiev

0%

0 KO/TKO in 18 bouts

Knockout rate

14%

1 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

1

0.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.5 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Marvin VettoriFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Ismail NaurdievFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Marvin Vettori

109%

R3 vs R1 · 16 bouts reaching R3

Ismail Naurdiev

76%

R3 vs R1 · 6 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Vettori: Vettori holds steady (+2% per round through round 3) while Naurdiev fades (-13% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Vettori lifts to 109% of round-1 output by round 3, Naurdiev 76%.

Vettori — HOLDS

Naurdiev ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Vettori

Naurdievlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Vettori

Naurdievattempts / min

Control time

Vettori

Naurdiev% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Marvin Vettori	5.8	4.7	3.8	0.17	15%	18
R1	Ismail Naurdiev	6.1	5.0	2.3	0.22	11%	7
R2	Marvin Vettori	5.6	4.2	5.0	0.20	19%	16
R2	Ismail Naurdiev	4.5	2.7	1.5	0.27	24%	6
R3	Marvin Vettori	6.0	4.8	4.2	0.17	18%	16
R3	Ismail Naurdiev	4.8	3.2	1.4	0.23	22%	6
R4	Marvin Vettori	7.6	5.9	5.2	0.30	22%	6
R4	Ismail Naurdiev	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Marvin Vettori	7.2	4.9	5.8	0.40	28%	6
R5	Ismail Naurdiev	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.