Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Valter Walker

edge

Thomas Petersen

Striking

Petersen ▸

Petersen out-strikes Walker

Effective offense

C

48th

1.0

+28

A

75th

1.8

Defense

C

45th

42%

+19

B

65th

54%

KO power

C

6 KO

0.0 KD

Even

C

7 KO

0.2 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

A+

98th

5.7

+18

A

81st

2.6

Takedown accuracy

A

82nd

69%

+28

C

54th

38%

Takedown defense—86%

Control time

A+

96th

8.4 min

+15

A

81st

5.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Walker

Walker is the bigger submission threat on Petersen

Submission attempts

A+

94th

2.6

+37

C

56th

0.2

Sub win rate

A

75th

33%

5 subs

+9

B

66th

9%

1 sub

Submission defense

D

36th

0%

Even

D

36th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Walker

Walker is more likely to finish Petersen

Finish rate

C

54th

100%

+33

F

21st

0%

KO durability

B

64th

0%

+26

D

37th

33%

Submission defense

D

36th

0%

Even

D

36th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.7

6.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.7

5.3

Pace trend—+24%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Walker

Walker is in better recent form than Petersen

Win rate (career)

80%

50%

After a win

100%

0%

Last 5

80%

60%

Win streakW4W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

20%

29%

Win quality

66%

33%

Ranked opponents

1

Even

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Petersen ▸

Petersen is fresher and more active than Walker

Last bout

9mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

Even

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Walker

Walker 4" reach · Walker 13 cm · Open-stance matchup

Valter WalkervsThomas Petersen

28

Age

3y

younger

31

6'6"

198cm

Height

5"

taller

6'1"

185cm

79"

199cm

Reach

4"

reach

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Valter WalkerThomas Petersen

Percentile

Striking/min2.003.10

Accuracy%52%59%

Defense%42%54%

Takedowns/155.73.0

TD defense%0%87%

Submissions/152.50.4

Career rate as a percentile within the heavyweight (304 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Valter Walker, from opponents’ full pro records

Valter Walker

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

76-65-1

.539 win rate

Winning-record opponents

5 of 11

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

11

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 4m ago

Valter Walker

Consensus

61%▼ 8

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Walker

Kalshi63¢Sportsbook-16260%best

Thomas Petersen

Consensus

39%▲ 9

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Petersen

Kalshi38¢bestSportsbook+14240%

Walker 61%39% Petersen

$14k vol · $12k OI$12k vol · $10k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Valter Walker

12%+550

30%+163

18%+350

Thomas Petersen

16%+400

3%+2200

20%+300

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Valter Walker

12%+550

30%+163

18%+350

Thomas Petersen

16%+400

3%+2200

20%+300

Total rounds

Line · 1.5

Over58%-163
Under42%+120

Goes the distance

Yes42%+120
No58%-163

UFC betting history

Career

WalkerValter Walker

PetersenThomas Petersen

1-0100%

As pick'em

1-0100%

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi71%63%8 pts

Sportsbook70%60%10 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

WalkerValter Walker

Stat

PetersenThomas Petersen

0

KO / TKO

0

2

4

0

Submission

0

1

Decision

3

1

4:42

Avg fight time

12:16

Valter Walker’s splits

vs Petersen

vs Orthodox

3-175%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Thomas Petersen’s splits

vs Walker

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Valter WalkervsThomas Petersen

28

Age

3y

younger

31

6'6"

198cm

Height

5"

taller

6'1"

185cm

79"

199cm

Reach

4"

reach

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

47th

+18

B

65th

Petersen has the striking edge (+18).

Attacking

Walker’s offensevsPetersen’s defense

Where Walker attacks (green = high volume) vs where Petersen gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Walker’s green zones meeting Petersen’s red zones are the openings.

Valter WalkerOffense

Head51%42nd24
Body17%49th8
Leg32%61st15

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Thomas PetersenDefense

Head68%52nd131
Body25%41st49
Leg7%65th13

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Walker — by position

70%Standing

Standing70%33
Clinch11%5
Ground19%9

Petersen — absorbed by position

84%Standing

Standing84%162
Clinch11%22
Ground5%9

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Walker’s offensevsPetersen’s defense

Head

D

42nd

26.7

+10

C

52nd

30.1

Body

C

49th

7.7

+8

D

41st

9.8

Leg

B

61st

7.7

Even

B

65th

4.7

Petersen’s offensevsWalker’s defense

Head

C

49th

30.7

Even

C

50th

30.7

Body

B

68th

11.1

+29

D

39th

10.0

Leg

C

48th

5.0

+12

D

36th

8.9

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Valter Walker	below division average26.7	38%	around division average30.7	24
Head	Thomas Petersen	around division average30.7	49%	around division average30.1	145
Body	Valter Walker	around division average7.7	80%	below division average10.0	8
Body	Thomas Petersen	above division average11.1	85%	below division average9.8	61
Leg	Valter Walker	above division average7.7	94%	below division average8.9	15
Leg	Thomas Petersen	around division average5.0	100%	above division average4.7	19

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Valter Walker

Thomas Petersen

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

82nd

+15

B

67th

Walker has the grappling edge (+15).

Takedowns

A

83rd

5.7

Even

A

76th

2.6

Takedown accuracy

A

82nd

69%

9/13

+28

C

54th

38%

13/34

Takedown defense

—

86%

6/7

Submission threat

A

83rd

2.6

+22

B

61st

0.2

Control time

A

77th

8.4 min

Even

A

76th

5.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Valter Walker	Thomas Petersen
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	5.79	2.613
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	69%9 / 13	38%13 / 34
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	—0 / 0	86%6 / 7
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	2.64	0.21
Control time / 15 (min)career total	8.4 min13:10	5.8 min28:27
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.5 min0:46	0.6 min3:08

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Valter Walker

Thomas Petersen

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

W

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Valter Walker

37

Schedule Score

Thomas Petersen

34

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

24 min

5 bouts

Octagon time

50 min

more

74 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

20%

29%

Win quality

66%

33%

Ranked opponents

1

Even

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Valter Walker	Thomas Petersen
Ranked 6–15	1-0	0-2
Building	—	1-1
Unproven	3-1	2-0

Valter Walker — bouts

Thomas Petersen — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Valter Walker

Thomas Petersen

Walker — last 5

recent → old

Petersen — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

3-2

Current streak

W4

W1

Ranked opps

1 of 5

Even

1 of 5

Layoff

9 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Valter Walker

Thomas Petersen

Post-result bounce

SituationWalker Petersen

After a loss

1-0100%

3-0100%

After a win

3-0100%

0-20%

Camp length

SituationWalker Petersen

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

3-0100%

2-167%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-0100%

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Valter Walker

Thomas Petersen

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Walker11W–0L by finish · 73% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Petersen7W–3L by finish · 86% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

D

33rd

73%

Even

D

33rd

73%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

31%

27%

KO durability

↑20%·Walker

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑20%·Walker

A+

86th

0%

+45

D

40th

20%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

61st

0%

Even

B

61st

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Valter Walker	Thomas Petersen
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(40%)	7(64%)
by submission	5(33%)	1(9%)
by decision	4(27%)	3(27%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	3(75%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(100%)	1(25%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Valter Walker

vs

Thomas Petersen

0%

0 KO/TKO in 5 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.7 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

2

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

3

2.3 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Valter WalkerFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Thomas PetersenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Vitor Petrino9 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025 · R3 · 0:26
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Valter Walker

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Thomas Petersen

166%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Petersen lifts to 166% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Walker hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Walker

Petersen ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Walker

Petersenlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Walker

Petersenattempts / min

Control time

Walker

Petersen% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Valter Walker	6.8	1.9	1.8	0.74	67%	5
R1	Thomas Petersen	5.0	2.0	2.9	0.57	34%	6
R2	Valter Walker	4.6	3.2	6.4	0.20	19%	1
R2	Thomas Petersen	5.5	2.9	2.4	0.36	37%	5
R3	Valter Walker	4.7	1.0	2.0	0.40	62%	1
R3	Thomas Petersen	7.9	4.7	2.4	0.44	48%	5

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.