Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Muhammad Said

edge

Dustin Jacoby

Striking

Not enough data

Effective offense—2.6

Defense—57%

KO power—15 KO

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Not enough data

Takedowns landed—0.3

Takedown accuracy—20%

Takedown defense—57%

Control time—1.2 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Not enough data

Submission attempts—0.0

Sub win rate

B

62nd

22%

2 subs

+9

C

53rd

5%

1 sub

Submission defense

C

49th

0%

Even

C

44th

6%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both are heavy finishers — Said by KO (8 of 9 wins), Jacoby by KO (16 of 22).

Finish rate (of wins)

89% (8/9)

73% (16/22)

By KO/TKO

6

15

By submission

2

1

Avg finish round

R1.5 avg finish

R1.4 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Said

Said ends fights earlier — only 11% of bouts go the distance.

Goes the distance

11%

34%

Avg finish round

R1.5 avg finish

R1.4 avg finish

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Said

Said has the hotter form — 5 of the last 5, 9-fight win streak.

Last 5

5-0

3-2

Current streak

9-fight win streak

3-fight win streak

See full Form →

Schedule

Jacoby ▸

Jacoby has faced stiffer competition — opponents average 67% win rate vs 57%.

Opponents avg win rate

57%

67%

Opponents with a record on file

9 of 9

32 of 32

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

2mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

0

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

0

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Jacoby 3 cm · Said 8y younger

Muhammad SaidvsDustin Jacoby

30

Age

8y

younger

38

6'2"

188cm

Height

1"

taller

6'3"

191cm

—

Reach

—

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Muhammad Said, from opponents’ full pro records

Muhammad Said

Strong

Opponents' combined record

66-43-1

.606 win rate

Winning-record opponents

7 of 9

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

9

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 11m ago

Muhammad Said

Consensus

41%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Said

Kalshi41¢bestSportsbook+13541%

Dustin Jacoby

Consensus

59%flat

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Jacoby

Kalshi60¢bestSportsbook-15559%

Said 41%59% Jacoby

$1k vol · $1k OI$1k vol · $1k OI

Sportsbook

Total rounds

Line · 1.5

Over61%-188
Under39%+140

UFC betting history

Career

SaidMuhammad Said

JacobyDustin Jacoby

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi59%59%

Sportsbook63%59%5 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

SaidMuhammad Said

Stat

JacobyDustin Jacoby

—

KO / TKO

7

1

—

Submission

0

1

—

Decision

3

4

—

Avg fight time

9:25

Muhammad Said’s splits

vs Jacoby

vs Orthodox

0-0no data

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Dustin Jacoby’s splits

vs Said

vs Orthodox

8-373%

vs Southpaw

2-340%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

6-367%

vs Shorter reach

4-180%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Muhammad SaidvsDustin Jacoby

30

Age

8y

younger

38

6'2"

188cm

Height

1"

taller

6'3"

191cm

—

Reach

—

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

59th

+10

B

68th

Jacoby has the striking edge (+10).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Said’s offensevsJacoby’s defense

Head

32.1

D

30th

41.5

Body

10.0

B

58th

8.6

Leg

8.3

D

30th

10.8

Jacoby’s offensevsSaid’s defense

Head

A+

85th

50.2

36.4

Body

B

66th

11.1

10.4

Leg

A

79th

13.6

8.8

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Muhammad Said	32.1	—	36.4	0
Head	Dustin Jacoby	top 15% of division50.2	39%	below division average41.5	609
Body	Muhammad Said	10.0	—	10.4	0
Body	Dustin Jacoby	above division average11.1	70%	above division average8.6	126
Leg	Muhammad Said	8.3	—	8.8	0
Leg	Dustin Jacoby	top 21% of division13.6	85%	below division average10.8	166

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Muhammad Said

Dustin Jacoby

Overall Grappling

Grappling

—

D

40th

Takedowns

—

D

39th

0.3

Takedown accuracy

—

D

30th

20%

3/15

Takedown defense

—

C

44th

57%

27/47

Submission threat

—

C

53rd

0.0

Control time

—

D

37th

1.2 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Muhammad Said	Dustin Jacoby
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	0.33
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	—0 / 0	20%3 / 15
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	—0 / 0	57%27 / 47
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.0 min0:00	1.2 min13:19
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.0 min0:00	1.7 min18:30

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Muhammad Said

—

Schedule Score

Dustin Jacoby

42

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

UFC debut

Octagon time

—

166 min

17 bouts

Schedule strength

—%

38%

Win quality

—%

47%

Ranked opponents

0

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Muhammad Said	Dustin Jacoby
Top-5	—	0-2
Ranked 6–15	—	1-2-1
Cross-div ranked	—	2-0
Contender-level	—	1-0
Building	—	3-1
Unproven	—	3-1

Muhammad Said — bouts

No resolved UFC bouts.

Dustin Jacoby — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Muhammad Said

Dustin Jacoby

Said — pre-UFC · last 5

recent → old

WUAE

KO R1

da Silva

May ’26

WUAE

DEC

da Silva

Sep ’25

WMMA

KO R2

Guimaraes

Dec ’24

WMMA

KO R1

Bashandy

Dec ’23

WMMA

KO R2

Foladi

Sep ’23

Jacoby — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

3-2

Current streak

W5

W3

Ranked opps

0 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

2 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Muhammad Said

Dustin Jacoby

Post-result bounce

SituationSaid Jacoby

After a loss

—

3-350%

After a win

—

6-275%

Camp length

SituationSaid Jacoby

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

1-150%

Typical camp100–180 days

—

6-460%

Long layoff> 180 days

—

3-0100%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Muhammad Said

Dustin Jacoby

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Said8W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Jacoby16W–4L by finish · 81% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑16%·Said

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑16%·Said

B

61st

89%

+26

D

35th

73%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

11%

35%

KO durability

↑6%·Said

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑6%·Said

A

83rd

0%

+14

B

69th

6%

Submission defense

↑6%·Said

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑6%·Said

B

68th

0%

+19

C

49th

6%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Muhammad Said	Dustin Jacoby
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(67%)	15(68%)
by submission	2(22%)	1(5%)
by decision	1(11%)	6(27%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0	2(22%)
by submission	0	2(22%)
by decision	0	5(56%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Muhammad Said

vs

Dustin Jacoby

0%

0 KO/TKO in 0 bouts

Knockout rate

39%

7 KO/TKO in 18 bouts

0

—

Knockdowns dealt

7

1.1 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

—

Knockdowns absorbed

6

1.3 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Muhammad SaidFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Dustin JacobyFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Dominick Reyes2y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 8, 2024 · R1 · 2:00
Last time submitted
vs Chris Camozzi14y 5mo ago
UFC on FOX: Evans vs. Davis · Jan 28, 2012 · R3 · 1:08

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Muhammad Said

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Dustin Jacoby

160%

R3 vs R1 · 10 bouts reaching R3

Jacoby lifts to 160% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Said hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Muhammad Said	—	—	—	—	—	—
R1	Dustin Jacoby	5.1	4.7	3.9	0.04	5%	17
R2	Muhammad Said	—	—	—	—	—	—
R2	Dustin Jacoby	6.4	6.0	4.3	0.04	6%	11
R3	Muhammad Said	—	—	—	—	—	—
R3	Dustin Jacoby	7.1	5.9	4.3	0.22	14%	10

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.

Activity & layoff

Activity and recency vs division peers.

Time since last bout

Muhammad2 months

Dustin5 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Muhammad Said

Active

2 monthssince last bout

vs Henrique da Silva · May 9, 2026

Dustin Jacoby

Active

5 monthssince last bout

vs Julius Walker · Feb 7, 2026

Muhammad Said vs Dustin Jacoby — Light Heavyweight at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov