Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Ismael Bonfim

edge

Axel Sola

Striking

◂ Bonfim

Bonfim out-strikes Sola (thin sample)

Effective offense

A+

95th

3.0

+20

A

74th

1.8

Defense

B

67th

65%

+20

C

47th

61%

KO power

C

9 KO

0.2 KD

Even

C

6 KO

0.5 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

C

47th

1.1

+27

A

73rd

2.2

Takedown accuracy

C

47th

33%

Even

C

51st

36%

Takedown defense73%—

Control time

F

13th

0.6 min

+43

C

56th

3.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Sola ▸

Sola is the bigger submission threat on Bonfim (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

18th

0.0

Even

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

B

65th

20%

4 subs

Even

B

60th

9%

1 sub

Submission defense

D

33rd

15%

+18

C

52nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Sola ▸

Sola is more likely to finish Bonfim (thin sample)

Finish rate

C

43rd

50%

+20

B

63rd

100%

KO durability

D

37th

20%

+16

C

53rd

0%

Submission defense

D

29th

20%

+15

C

44th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

6.2

Even

6.3

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.2

5.4

Pace trend—+15%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Sola ▸

Sola is in better recent form than Bonfim (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

40%

50%

After a win

0%

Even

0%

Last 5

40%

80%

Win streakL2L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition (thin sample)

Schedule strength

28%

13%

Win quality

44%

Even

45%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Sola ▸

Sola is fresher and more active than Bonfim

Last bout

8mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

Even

2

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Sola ▸

Sola 2" reach · Sola 8 cm · Open-stance matchup

Ismael BonfimvsAxel Sola

30

Age

2y

younger

28

5'8"

173cm

Height

3"

taller

5'11"

180cm

72"

182cm

Reach

2"

reach

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Ismael BonfimAxel Sola

Percentile

Striking/min5.514.07

Accuracy%54%45%

Defense%65%61%

Takedowns/151.12.2

TD defense%76%0%

Submissions/150.00.0

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (423 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Sola faced the tougher slate — opponents averaged .708 career win rate vs .617 for Bonfim.

Ismael Bonfim

Strong

Opponents' combined record

232-144-7

.617 win rate

Winning-record opponents

12 of 20

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

20

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Axel Sola

Strong

Opponents' combined record

102-42-4

.708 win rate

Winning-record opponents

10 of 11

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

11

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 6m ago

Ismael Bonfim

Consensus

36%flat

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Bonfim

Kalshi37¢Sportsbook+16836%

Axel Sola

Consensus

64%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Sola

Kalshi64¢bestSportsbook-19364%

Bonfim 36%64% Sola

$14k vol · $12k OI$22k vol · $22k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Ismael Bonfim

16%+400

7%+1000

14%+450

Axel Sola

29%+175

7%+1000

26%+200

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Ismael Bonfim

16%+400

7%+1000

14%+450

Axel Sola

29%+175

7%+1000

26%+200

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over49%-110
Under51%-120

Goes the distance

Yes42%+120
No58%-163

UFC betting history

Career

BonfimIsmael Bonfim

SolaAxel Sola

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi63%64%1 pt

Sportsbook57%64%7 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

BonfimIsmael Bonfim

Stat

SolaAxel Sola

1

2

KO / TKO

1

0

1

Submission

0

1

0

Decision

0

1

8:19

Avg fight time

13:31

Ismael Bonfim’s splits

vs Sola

vs Orthodox

1-150%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

0-10%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Axel Sola’s splits

vs Bonfim

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Ismael BonfimvsAxel Sola

30

Age

2y

younger

28

5'8"

173cm

Height

3"

taller

5'11"

180cm

72"

182cm

Reach

2"

reach

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

68th

+12

C

56th

Bonfim has the striking edge (+12).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Bonfim’s offensevsSola’s defense

Head

A

81st

40.9

+54

D

27th

42.1

Body

A

72nd

13.6

+49

F

24th

13.8

Leg

A

71st

9.9

+10

B

62nd

6.3

Sola’s offensevsBonfim’s defense

Head

A

76th

37.3

+26

C

50th

31.2

Body

B

60th

10.7

+30

D

30th

12.4

Leg

D

37th

5.0

+15

F

22nd

12.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Ismael Bonfim	top 19% of division40.9	45%	around division average31.2	146
Head	Axel Sola	top 24% of division37.3	42%	well below average42.1	89
Body	Ismael Bonfim	top 28% of division13.6	84%	below division average12.4	48
Body	Axel Sola	above division average10.7	70%	well below average13.8	21
Leg	Ismael Bonfim	top 29% of division9.9	92%	well below average12.0	33
Leg	Axel Sola	below division average5.0	—	above division average6.3	0

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Ismael Bonfim

Axel Sola

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

50th

Even

C

56th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

56th

1.1

+10

B

66th

2.2

Takedown accuracy

C

47th

33%

3/9

Even

C

51st

36%

4/11

Takedown defense

B

62nd

73%

8/11

—

Submission threat

C

49th

0.0

Even

C

53rd

0.0

Control time

D

37th

0.6 min

+19

C

56th

3.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Ismael Bonfim	Axel Sola
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.13	2.24
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	33%3 / 9	36%4 / 11
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	73%8 / 11	—0 / 0
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.6 min1:43	3.0 min5:24
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	3.5 min9:38	0.0 min0:05

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Ismael Bonfim

35

Schedule Score

Axel Sola

29

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

42 min

5 bouts

Octagon time

15 min

more

27 min

2 bouts

Schedule strength

28%

13%

Win quality

44%

Even

45%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Ismael Bonfim	Axel Sola
Top-5	0-1	—
Contender-level	1-0	—
Established	1-0	—
Building	0-2	0-1
Unproven	—	1-0

Ismael Bonfim — bouts

Axel Sola — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Ismael Bonfim

Axel Sola

Bonfim — last 5

recent → old

Sola — last 5

recent → old

WARES

DEC

Oudelha

Jun ’25

WARES

KO R2

Caio

Jan ’25

WARES

KO R2

Gagloev

Sep ’24

Last 5 record

2-3

4-1

Current streak

L2

L1

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

9 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Ismael Bonfim

Axel Sola

Post-result bounce

SituationBonfim Sola

After a loss

1-150%

—

After a win

0-20%

0-10%

Camp length

SituationBonfim Sola

Typical camp100–180 days

0-10%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

1-233%

0-10%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Ismael Bonfim

Axel Sola

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Bonfim13W–6L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Sola7W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

D

38th

65%

Even

D

38th

64%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

27%

42%

KO durability

↑8%·Sola

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑8%·Sola

C

52nd

8%

+27

A

79th

0%

Submission defense

↑15%·Sola

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑15%·Sola

F

19th

15%

+47

B

66th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Ismael Bonfim	Axel Sola
Wins
by KO / TKO	9(45%)	6(55%)
by submission	4(20%)	1(9%)
by decision	7(35%)	4(36%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(33%)	0(0%)
by submission	4(67%)	0(0%)
by decision	0(0%)	1(100%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Ismael Bonfim

vs

Axel Sola

17%

1 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

Knockout rate

50%

1 KO/TKO in 2 bouts

1

0.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

1.1 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Ismael BonfimFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Chris Padilla8 months ago
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 8, 2025 · R2 · 4:30
Last time submitted
vs Benoit Saint Denis3 years ago
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 1, 2023 · R1 · 4:48

Axel SolaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Ismael Bonfim

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Axel Sola

131%

R3 vs R1 · 2 bouts reaching R3

Sola lifts to 131% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Bonfim hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Bonfim

Sola ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Bonfim

Solalanded / min

Takedown attempts

Bonfim

Solaattempts / min

Control time

Bonfim

Sola% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Ismael Bonfim	5.3	4.2	2.7	0.28	5%	5
R1	Axel Sola	6.1	2.4	2.4	0.70	39%	2
R2	Ismael Bonfim	7.2	6.9	6.4	0.08	1%	3
R2	Axel Sola	4.8	4.0	5.0	0.10	12%	2
R3	Ismael Bonfim	9.2	8.2	4.2	0.20	9%	1
R3	Axel Sola	8.0	6.5	9.8	0.43	3%	2

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.