Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Yan Xiaonan

edge

Denise Gomes

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A

70th

2.1

Even

A

74th

2.2

Defense

A

76th

60%

+26

C

50th

51%

KO power

D

8 KO

0.2 KD

+10

C

7 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Gomes ▸

Gomes has the bigger wrestling edge on Xiaonan

Takedowns landed

D

36th

0.8

+30

B

66th

1.7

Takedown accuracy

A+

92nd

73%

+48

C

43rd

34%

Takedown defense

C

55th

65%

Even

C

57th

66%

Control time

F

20th

1.2 min

+54

A

74th

4.5 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Gomes ▸

Gomes is the bigger submission threat on Xiaonan

Submission attempts

F

15th

0.0

+70

A+

85th

0.8

Sub win rate

C

48th

5%

1 sub

Even

C

46th

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

4%

Even

C

43rd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Gomes ▸

Gomes is more likely to finish Xiaonan

Finish rate

D

39th

11%

+26

B

65th

50%

KO durability

D

39th

8%

Even

C

45th

0%

Submission defense

C

43rd

0%

Even

C

43rd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Gomes ▸

Gomes pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Xiaonan's pace builds while Gomes's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

5.5

6.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.1

7.0

Pace trend

+13%/rd

-16%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Gomes ▸

Gomes is in better recent form than Xiaonan

Win rate (career)

69%

75%

After a win

67%

80%

Last 5

60%

80%

Win streakL1W4

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Xiaonan

Xiaonan has faced the tougher schedule vs Gomes

Schedule strength

80%

43%

Win quality

56%

59%

Ranked opponents

10

3

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Common opps (2)2-01-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

Gomes ▸

Gomes is fresher and more active than Xiaonan

Last bout

16mo

10mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

0

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Xiaonan 8 cm · Gomes 11y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Yan XiaonanvsDenise Gomes

37

Age

11y

younger

26

5'5"

165cm

Height

3"

taller

5'2"

157cm

63"

160cm

Reach

Even

63"

160cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Yan XiaonanDenise Gomes

Percentile

Striking/min4.694.43

Accuracy%45%49%

Defense%60%51%

Takedowns/150.81.4

TD defense%64%66%

Submissions/150.00.7

Career rate as a percentile within the women's strawweight (99 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 3m ago

Yan Xiaonan

Consensus

59%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Xiaonan

Kalshi61¢Sportsbook-14657%best

Denise Gomes

Consensus

41%▲ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Gomes

Kalshi40¢bestSportsbook+12643%

Xiaonan 59%41% Gomes

$19k vol · $19k OI$21k vol · $15k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Yan Xiaonan

11%+660

3%+2600

45%-118

Denise Gomes

13%+550

6%+1300

22%+275

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Yan Xiaonan

11%+660

3%+2600

45%-118

Denise Gomes

13%+550

6%+1300

22%+275

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over71%-270
Under29%+237

Goes the distance

Yes69%-260
No31%+205

UFC betting history

Career

XiaonanYan Xiaonan

GomesDenise Gomes

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi60%61%1 pt

Sportsbook59%57%2 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

XiaonanYan Xiaonan

Stat

GomesDenise Gomes

1

KO / TKO

3

0

Submission

0

8

3

Decision

3

2

15:01

Avg fight time

11:04

Yan Xiaonan’s splits

vs Gomes

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-10%

vs Longer reach

5-271%

vs Shorter reach

2-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Denise Gomes’s splits

vs Xiaonan

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

4-180%

vs Shorter reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Yan XiaonanvsDenise Gomes

37

Age

11y

younger

26

5'5"

165cm

Height

3"

taller

5'2"

157cm

63"

160cm

Reach

Even

63"

160cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

59th

Even

C

55th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Xiaonan’s offensevsGomes’s defense

Where Xiaonan attacks (green = high volume) vs where Gomes gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Xiaonan’s green zones meeting Gomes’s red zones are the openings.

Yan XiaonanOffense

Head65%76th599
Body13%32nd121
Leg21%83rd196

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Denise GomesDefense

Head45%78th123
Body33%40th90
Leg22%48th59

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Xiaonan — by position

87%Standing

Standing87%793
Clinch8%69
Ground6%54

Gomes — absorbed by position

67%Standing

Standing67%182
Clinch22%60
Ground11%30

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Xiaonan’s offensevsGomes’s defense

Head

A

76th

44.0

Even

A

78th

26.6

Body

D

32nd

10.1

+8

D

40th

14.9

Leg

A

83rd

14.0

+35

C

48th

9.8

Gomes’s offensevsXiaonan’s defense

Head

D

40th

31.4

Even

C

47th

34.9

Body

A

75th

16.9

Even

A

74th

9.7

Leg

B

67th

11.3

Even

A

70th

6.3

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Yan Xiaonan	top 24% of division44.0	38%	around division average34.9	599
Head	Denise Gomes	below division average31.4	39%	top 22% of division26.6	173
Body	Yan Xiaonan	below division average10.1	68%	top 26% of division9.7	121
Body	Denise Gomes	top 25% of division16.9	71%	below division average14.9	110
Leg	Yan Xiaonan	top 17% of division14.0	76%	top 30% of division6.3	196
Leg	Denise Gomes	above division average11.3	75%	around division average9.8	73

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Yan Xiaonan

Denise Gomes

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

49th

+13

B

63rd

Gomes has the grappling edge (+13).

Takedowns

D

40th

0.8

+23

B

63rd

1.7

Takedown accuracy

A+

92nd

73%

11/15

+48

C

43rd

34%

10/29

Takedown defense

C

55th

65%

37/57

Even

C

57th

66%

29/44

Submission threat

D

32nd

0.0

+50

A

81st

0.8

Control time

D

28th

1.2 min

+41

B

68th

4.5 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Yan Xiaonan	Denise Gomes
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.811	1.710
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	73%11 / 15	34%10 / 29
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	65%37 / 57	66%29 / 44
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.85
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.2 min15:51	4.5 min26:49
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	4.4 min57:27	4.2 min24:33

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Yan Xiaonan

Denise Gomes

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Xiaonan

2-0

2-0

1-1

1-1

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Women's Strawweight

Both won

Xiaonan

W

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Edge · Xiaonan

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

opp ranked #12

L

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Yan Xiaonan

77

Schedule Score

Denise Gomes

48

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

195 min

13 bouts

Octagon time

106 min

more

89 min

8 bouts

Schedule strength

80%

43%

Win quality

56%

59%

Ranked opponents

10

3

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Yan Xiaonan	Denise Gomes
Champion	2-2	—
Top-5	2-2	1-0
Ranked 6–15	2-0	1-2
Cross-div ranked	—	1-0
Building	1-0	2-0
Unproven	2-0	1-0

Yan Xiaonan — bouts

Denise Gomes — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Yan Xiaonan

Denise Gomes

Xiaonan — last 5

recent → old

Gomes — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

4-1

Current streak

L1

W4

Ranked opps

5 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

17 mo

10 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Yan Xiaonan

Denise Gomes

Camp length

SituationXiaonan Gomes

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

1-150%

2-167%

Long layoff> 180 days

7-370%

3-0100%

Post-result bounce

SituationXiaonan Gomes

After a loss

2-167%

2-0100%

After a win

6-367%

4-180%

Title fights

SituationXiaonan Gomes

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-10%

—

As challengerfor the belt

0-10%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Yan Xiaonan

Denise Gomes

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Xiaonan9W–2L by finish · 86% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Gomes7W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑11%·Gomes

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑11%·Gomes

D

33rd

47%

+19

C

52nd

58%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

54%

47%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

C

50th

4%

+12

D

38th

7%

Submission defense

↑4%·Gomes

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Gomes

C

55th

4%

Even

B

59th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Yan Xiaonan	Denise Gomes
Wins
by KO / TKO	8(42%)	7(58%)
by submission	1(5%)	0(0%)
by decision	10(53%)	5(42%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(20%)	1(33%)
by submission	1(20%)	0(0%)
by decision	3(60%)	2(67%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Yan Xiaonan

vs

Denise Gomes

8%

1 KO/TKO in 13 bouts

Knockout rate

33%

3 KO/TKO in 9 bouts

2

0.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

3

1.7 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Yan XiaonanFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Carla Esparza5y 3mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021 · R2 · 2:58
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Denise GomesFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Yan Xiaonan

127%

R3 vs R1 · 11 bouts reaching R3

Denise Gomes

83%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Xiaonan: Xiaonan builds (+14% per round through round 3) while Gomes fades (-15% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Xiaonan lifts to 127% of round-1 output by round 3, Gomes 83%.

Xiaonan ▲ BUILDS

Gomes ▼ FADESOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Xiaonan

Gomeslanded / min

Takedown attempts

Xiaonan

Gomesattempts / min

Control time

Xiaonan

Gomes% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Yan Xiaonan	4.9	4.4	2.7	0.08	7%	13
R1	Denise Gomes	6.4	3.9	2.5	0.40	34%	8
R2	Yan Xiaonan	5.3	4.6	4.0	0.12	8%	12
R2	Denise Gomes	7.5	5.2	3.7	0.43	25%	7
R3	Yan Xiaonan	6.4	5.9	3.5	0.05	9%	11
R3	Denise Gomes	4.5	2.9	3.1	0.12	31%	5
R4	Yan Xiaonan	4.8	4.2	3.3	0.00	16%	2
R4	Denise Gomes	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Yan Xiaonan	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.00	2%	2
R5	Denise Gomes	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.