Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Umar Nurmagomedov

edge

Song Yadong

Striking

◂ Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov out-strikes Yadong

Effective offense

A

80th

2.2

Even

A

73rd

1.9

Defense

A+

87th

61%

+43

C

44th

55%

KO power

F

2 KO

0.1 KD

+21

C

9 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov has the bigger wrestling edge on Yadong

Takedowns landed

A+

96th

4.0

+58

D

38th

0.8

Takedown accuracy

B

67th

47%

Even

B

60th

41%

Takedown defense

A

77th

79%

Even

A

71st

74%

Control time

A+

92nd

5.8 min

+50

C

42nd

2.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

C

46th

0.2

Even

C

45th

0.2

Sub win rate

A

74th

35%

7 subs

+10

B

64th

17%

4 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Yadong ▸

Yadong is more likely to finish Nurmagomedov

Finish rate

D

41st

38%

+24

B

65th

58%

KO durability

C

50th

0%

Even

C

50th

0%

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov pushes the higher work rate over five rounds — Yadong's pace builds while Nurmagomedov's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.9

6.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

7.3

4.9

Pace trend

-6%/rd

+17%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is in better recent form than Yadong

Win rate (career)

89%

75%

After a win

86%

64%

Last 5

80%

60%

Win streakW2W1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

63%

72%

Win quality

78%

65%

Ranked opponents

5

11

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Common opps (2)2-01-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

Yadong ▸

Yadong is fresher and more active than Nurmagomedov

Last bout

5mo

1mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

Even

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov 2" reach · Closed-stance matchup

Umar NurmagomedovvsSong Yadong

30

Age

2y

younger

28

5'8"

173cm

Height

Even

5'8"

173cm

69"

175cm

Reach

2"

reach

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Umar NurmagomedovSong Yadong

Percentile

Striking/min3.864.42

Accuracy%56%43%

Defense%61%55%

Takedowns/154.00.8

TD defense%79%73%

Submissions/150.20.1

Career rate as a percentile within the bantamweight (293 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Umar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong

79%

-470

MMA Index model

Unlock

21%

+360

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

NurmagomedovUmar Nurmagomedov

YadongSong Yadong

—

As pick'em

1-0100%

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

NurmagomedovUmar Nurmagomedov

Stat

YadongSong Yadong

1

0

KO / TKO

5

1

2

0

Submission

2

0

5

1

Decision

5

3

14:04

Avg fight time

12:52

Umar Nurmagomedov’s splits

vs Yadong

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

3-0100%

vs Longer reach

3-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Song Yadong’s splits

vs Nurmagomedov

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

1-325%

vs Shorter reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Umar NurmagomedovvsSong Yadong

30

Age

2y

younger

28

5'8"

173cm

Height

Even

5'8"

173cm

69"

175cm

Reach

2"

reach

67"

170cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

63rd

+10

C

53rd

Nurmagomedov has the striking edge (+10).

Attacking

Nurmagomedov’s offensevsYadong’s defense

Where Nurmagomedov attacks (green = high volume) vs where Yadong gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Nurmagomedov’s green zones meeting Yadong’s red zones are the openings.

Umar NurmagomedovOffense

Head68%70th334
Body20%63rd99
Leg11%48th56

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Song YadongDefense

Head58%48th485
Body20%41st172
Leg22%25th185

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Nurmagomedov — by position

67%Standing

Standing67%329
Clinch6%29
Ground27%131

Yadong — absorbed by position

91%Standing

Standing91%763
Clinch5%38
Ground5%41

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Nurmagomedov’s offensevsYadong’s defense

Head

B

70th

37.5

+22

C

48th

33.6

Body

B

63rd

11.5

+22

D

41st

11.7

Leg

C

48th

7.1

+24

F

25th

12.0

Yadong’s offensevsNurmagomedov’s defense

Head

A

73rd

38.4

+13

A+

86th

19.8

Body

B

65th

12.1

Even

C

58th

9.5

Leg

A

83rd

12.1

+19

B

64th

6.3

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Umar Nurmagomedov	top 30% of division37.5	50%	top 14% of division19.8	334
Head	Song Yadong	top 27% of division38.4	35%	around division average33.6	587
Body	Umar Nurmagomedov	above division average11.5	71%	above division average9.5	99
Body	Song Yadong	above division average12.1	67%	below division average11.7	182
Leg	Umar Nurmagomedov	around division average7.1	88%	above division average6.3	56
Leg	Song Yadong	top 17% of division12.1	78%	well below average12.0	189

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Umar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

74th

+21

C

54th

Nurmagomedov has the grappling edge (+21).

Takedowns

A+

91st

4.0

+48

C

42nd

0.8

Takedown accuracy

B

67th

47%

34/73

Even

B

60th

41%

12/29

Takedown defense

A

77th

79%

27/34

Even

A

71st

74%

48/65

Submission threat

C

53rd

0.2

Even

C

50th

0.2

Control time

A

83rd

5.8 min

+39

C

44th

2.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Umar Nurmagomedov	Song Yadong
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	4.034	0.812
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	47%34 / 73	41%12 / 29
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	79%27 / 34	74%48 / 65
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.22	0.23
Control time / 15 (min)career total	5.8 min49:05	2.0 min29:27
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.4 min3:35	1.3 min19:11

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Umar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Nurmagomedov

2-0

2-0

1-1

1-1

Both won

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Edge · Nurmagomedov

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Umar Nurmagomedov

71

Schedule Score

Song Yadong

75

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

127 min

9 bouts

Octagon time

94 min

more

221 min

17 bouts

Schedule strength

63%

72%

Win quality

78%

65%

Ranked opponents

5

11

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Umar Nurmagomedov	Song Yadong
Champion	0-1	1-2
Top-5	2-0	2-1
Top-15	2-0	4-1-1
Cross-div ranked	1-0	1-0
Established	1-0	1-0
Building	1-0	1-0
Unproven	1-0	2-0

Umar Nurmagomedov — bouts

Song Yadong — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Umar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong

Nurmagomedov — last 5

recent → old

Yadong — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

3-2

Current streak

W2

W1

Ranked opps

4 of 5

5 of 5

Layoff

6 mo

41 d

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Umar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong

Camp length

SituationNurmagomedov Yadong

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-0100%

1-150%

Typical camp100–180 days

2-167%

5-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

4-0100%

5-363%

Post-result bounce

SituationNurmagomedov Yadong

After a loss

1-0100%

4-0100%

After a win

6-186%

6-460%

Title fights

SituationNurmagomedov Yadong

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-10%

—

As challengerfor the belt

0-10%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Umar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Nurmagomedov9W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Yadong13W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑12%·Yadong

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑12%·Yadong

F

16th

45%

+17

D

33rd

57%

Goes the distance

Both go the distance

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both go the distance

57%

50%

KO durability

↑6%·Nurmagomedov

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑6%·Nurmagomedov

B

65th

0%

+20

C

46th

6%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

58th

0%

Even

B

58th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Umar Nurmagomedov	Song Yadong
Wins
by KO / TKO	2(10%)	9(39%)
by submission	7(35%)	4(17%)
by decision	11(55%)	10(43%)
other	0(0%)	0(0%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	2(22%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	1(100%)	6(67%)
other	0(0%)	1(11%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Umar Nurmagomedov

vs

Song Yadong

11%

1 KO/TKO in 9 bouts

Knockout rate

29%

5 KO/TKO in 17 bouts

1

0.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

7

1.2 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

1.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Umar NurmagomedovFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Song YadongFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Cory Sandhagen3y 9mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022 · R4 · 5:00
* doctor stoppage · not a clean KO
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Umar Nurmagomedov

140%

R3 vs R1 · 6 bouts reaching R3

Song Yadong

149%

R3 vs R1 · 11 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Yadong: Yadong builds (+17% per round through round 5) while Nurmagomedov fades (-6% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Nurmagomedov lifts to 140% of round-1 output by round 3, Yadong 149%.

Nurmagomedov ▼ FADES

Yadong ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Nurmagomedov

Yadonglanded / min

Takedown attempts

Nurmagomedov

Yadongattempts / min

Control time

Nurmagomedov

Yadong% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Umar Nurmagomedov	6.3	3.2	1.4	0.51	40%	9
R1	Song Yadong	4.0	3.5	2.9	0.05	8%	17
R2	Umar Nurmagomedov	8.2	4.6	1.7	0.65	42%	7
R2	Song Yadong	5.9	4.7	4.2	0.20	14%	14
R3	Umar Nurmagomedov	7.8	3.9	1.5	0.67	48%	6
R3	Song Yadong	6.0	5.1	5.1	0.20	8%	11
R4	Umar Nurmagomedov	7.2	5.1	5.6	0.60	7%	2
R4	Song Yadong	4.9	3.4	3.2	0.07	33%	3
R5	Umar Nurmagomedov	4.9	3.0	2.0	0.30	26%	2
R5	Song Yadong	9.5	6.3	1.0	0.00	79%	2

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.