MMA Index
Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

17 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Brian Ortega
    Brian Ortega
    5-2 as underdog · 71%
    57.4
  2. 2
    Cub Swanson
    Cub Swanson
    8-7 as underdog · 53%
    49.0
  3. 3
    Nate Landwehr
    Nate Landwehr
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  4. 4
    Giga Chikadze
    Giga Chikadze
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  5. 5
    Edson Barboza
    Edson Barboza
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  6. 6
    Darren Elkins
    Darren Elkins
    8-8 as underdog · 50%
    46.6
  7. 7
    Josh Emmett
    Josh Emmett
    6-6 as underdog · 50%
    45.7
  8. 8
    Julian Erosa
    Julian Erosa
    4-4 as underdog · 50%
    44.3
  9. 9
    Kyle Nelson
    Kyle Nelson
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  10. 10
    Andre Fili
    Andre Fili
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  11. 11
    Jeremy Stephens
    Jeremy Stephens
    4-6 as underdog · 40%
    37.9
  12. 12
    Arnold Allen
    Arnold Allen
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  13. 13
    Yair Rodriguez
    Yair Rodriguez
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  14. 14
    Charles Oliveira
    Charles Oliveira
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  15. 15
    Max Holloway
    Max Holloway
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2
  16. 16
    Dan Ige
    Dan Ige
    3-7 as underdog · 30%
    30.8
  17. 17
    Calvin Kattar
    Calvin Kattar
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6