Kyle Nelson Record, Stats & Next Fight

UFC fight history

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Event	Date
L	Terrance McKinney Lightweight	KO/TKO	Punches to Head From Half Guard	R1	0:24	UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer	Mar 28, 2026
W	#14Matt Frevola Lightweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen	Oct 18, 2025
L	Steve Garcia Featherweight	KO/TKO	Elbows to Head From Half Guard	R1	3:59	UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady	Sep 7, 2024
W	Bill Algeo Featherweight	KO/TKO	Punches to Head At Distance	R1	4:00	UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot	Mar 30, 2024
W	Fernando Padilla Featherweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2	Sep 16, 2023
W	Blake Bilder Featherweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana	Jun 10, 2023
D	#14Dooho Choi Featherweight	Draw	—	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac	Feb 4, 2023
L	Jai Herbert Lightweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall	Jul 23, 2022
L	Billy Quarantillo Featherweight	KO/TKO	Punch to Head At Distance	R3	0:07	UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill	Sep 12, 2020
W	Marco Polo Reyes Featherweight	KO/TKO	Punch to Head At Distance	R1	1:36	UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens	Sep 21, 2019
L	Matt Sayles Featherweight	Submission	Arm Triangle From Mount	R3	3:16	UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy	May 4, 2019
L	Diego Ferreira Lightweight	KO/TKO	Punches to Head From Mount	R2	1:23	UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega	Dec 8, 2018

Outside the UFC

12-1across 13 bouts · 13 promotions · wins by 4 KO · 4 sub · 4 decRXF MMA 32 · BTC 1 · RXF 26 · Z Promotions · RXF 23 +8

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Promotion	Date
W	Morteza Rezaei8-3	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	4:57	RXF MMA 32	Nov 19, 2018
W	Khama Worthy20-12	KO/TKO	Punch	R1	1:03	BTC 1	May 27, 2017
W	Gabriel Manuca4-1	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R1	3:50	RXF 26	Apr 25, 2017
W	Jonathan Brookins16-11	Decision	Split	R3	5:00	Z Promotions	Oct 28, 2016
W	Zoltan Turai3-7	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R3	1:23	RXF 23	Jun 6, 2016
W	Justin Bourgeois7-9	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	2:01	Elite 1	Apr 23, 2016
L	Adrian Hadribeaj12-2	Decision	Unanimous	R5	5:00	Triple X Cagefighting	Sep 12, 2015
W	Ainsley Robinson5-3	Submission	Guillotine Choke	R1	0:42	SCC 2	May 30, 2014
W	Alexander Halkias4-2	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	PFC 2	Mar 8, 2014
W	Neelan Hordatt-Reece4-1	Decision	Split	R3	5:00	SCC 1	Jun 29, 2013
W	Maxime Dubois5-3	KO/TKO	Punches	R2	1:36	UGC 32	May 10, 2013
W	Jo Petahtegoose3-5	Submission	Armbar	R1	2:54	SFS 6	Oct 19, 2012
W	Michael Dufort17-6	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	Ringside MMA 13	Mar 17, 2012

Non-UFC bouts (regional/other promotions) and Dana White’s Contender Series — shown for context only, excluded from Schedule Score, striking/grappling rates, and every UFC-scoped metric.

Amateur

1-0across 1 amateur bout · 1 promotionPFC

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Promotion	Date
W	Travis Peterson2-1	Submission	Guillotine Choke	R3	0:59	PFC	May 28, 2011

Amateur (pre-professional) bouts — shown for context only and excluded from the professional record and every UFC-scoped metric.

Method of victory & defeat

KO / TKO

6 wins, 4 losses

W6

L4

Submission

4 wins, 1 loss

W4

L1

Decision

7 wins, 2 losses

W7

L2

Finishes

UFC KOs

2

Above avg · 11%Lightweight

Knockdowns / fight

0.08

Below avg · 0.21Lightweight

UFC submissions

0

Below avg · 6%Lightweight

Submission attempts / fight

0.33

Below avg · 0.44Lightweight

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability (UFC; clean KOs only).

Kyle Nelson

PowerChin

Knockout rate

17%

2 KO/TKO wins

Knockdowns dealt

1

0.43 per 100 head

Clean KO losses

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Knockdowns absorbed

1

0.33 per 100 head

Chin gauges use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Decision behavior

Judging

4 scorecards on file

Kyle Nelson

Scorecard luck

Wrong end of the cards

No split or majority decisions on file — this read comes from contested rounds alone. Judges have given them 1 of 3 rounds they disagreed on (33%).

Coin-flip decisions

Split + majority

None on file

Swing rounds

Judges disagreed

1–2

Won – Lost

33% went their way

Unanimous4 decisions · 100%

3W1L

Split

None

Majority

None

10-8 rounds

None scoredno 10-8 rounds in this fighter’s decisions

Most frequent judges

All judges →

Scorecard data ingested from MMA Decisions

Career striking

OverallC47th

45%413 / 902

Striking accuracy

53%

Striking defense

Sig. strikes / min-0.98 differential

Landed3.60

Absorbed4.58

60%str + td

Defensive rating

Striking edge

-2%accuracy vs opp. landing

worseevenbetter

Strike maps

Sig. strikes by target

Head56%55th231
Body26%70th108
Leg18%66th74

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Sig. strikes by position

84%Standing

Standing84%346
Clinch13%54
Ground3%13

Striking zones

Per-15-minute breakdown — where this fighter lands, and where they get hit.

UFC only

Kyle Nelson

Landed per 15

Head

C

55th

30.2

55th

Body

A

74th

14.1

74th

Leg

A

70th

9.7

70th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Absorbed per 15

Head

D

32nd

39.2

32nd

Body

F

16th

16.3

16th

Leg

F

17th

13.1

17th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Career totals — landed / attempted

Landed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	30.2	231	667	35%
Body	14.1	108	150	72%
Leg	9.7	74	85	87%

Absorbed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	39.2	300	862	35%
Body	16.3	125	157	80%
Leg	13.1	100	118	85%

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Percentiles vs the division; absorbed is inverted so higher is better.

Grappling

Per-15-minute breakdown of takedowns, submissions, and ground control.

UFC only

Kyle Nelson

23%

Takedown accuracy

67%

Takedown defense

Control / 15 min-0.4 min net

On top3.1

On bottom3.4

Offense

Takedowns

C

53rd

1.2

53rd

TD accuracy

D

26th

23%

26th

Sub attempts

B

60th

0.5

60th

Control

C

57th

3.1 min

57th

Defense

TD defense

C

56th

67%

56th

Controlled

3.4 min

Career totals — landed / attempted, control time

Offense

Takedowns	9 / 39
Submission attempts	4
Control time	23:31

Defense

TDs defended	12 / 18
Control absorbed	26:17

Rates above are per 15 minutes of UFC fight time (115min total). Value colors reflect the per-15 rate’s percentile against the current weight class baseline; raw totals without a division reference stay neutral.

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Kyle Nelson

12 UFC bouts (per‑round) · 115 min

128%

R3 pace · 7 bouts

Nelson builds (+9% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Nelson lifts to 128% of round-1 output by round 3 (7 bouts).

Nelson ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs — splitting them out shows whether the work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control, and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Nelsonlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Nelsonattempts / min

Control time

Nelson% of round

Round	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	5.2	3.8	5.4	0.16	21%	12
R2	5.2	4.0	4.6	0.25	13%	8
R3	6.2	2.7	3.1	0.78	30%	7

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked across the UFC. Recent fights weighted heavier.

UFC only

Kyle Nelson

12 resolved UFC bouts · 2 ranked at the time

Schedule Score

40/ 100

0255075100

Schedule strength

B

61st

37%

61st

Win quality

B

64th

44%

64th

Opponent quality distribution

Every UFC bout, grouped by who the opponent was at the time.

4

1

2

3

2

Top-15Ranked #6–#15 at the time
Contender-level8+ UFC wins entering the bout, ≥.55 win rate
Established5+ UFC wins entering the bout, ≥.500
Building3+ UFC fights, ≥.40 win rate
UnprovenFewer than 3 fights, or sub-.40 win rate

Tier	Bouts	Record	Win rate
Top-15	4	1-2-1	33%
Contender-level	1	0-1	0%
Established	2	1-1	50%
Building	3	2-1	67%
Unproven	2	1-1	50%

Highest-quality opponents

Toughest opponents on the scheduleScore, scored at the time of the fight.

All bouts — opponent quality bout-by-bout

Res	Opponent	Tier	Score	Date
L	Terrance McKinney	Contender-level	40	Mar 28, 2026
W	Matt Frevola#14	Top-15	62	Oct 18, 2025
L	Steve Garcia	Top-15	57	Sep 7, 2024
W	Bill Algeo	Established	30	Mar 30, 2024
W	Fernando Padilla	Building	15	Sep 16, 2023
W	Blake Bilder	Unproven	8	Jun 10, 2023
D	Dooho Choi#14	Top-15	65	Feb 4, 2023
L	Jai Herbert	Building	15	Jul 23, 2022
L	Billy Quarantillo	Established	22	Sep 12, 2020
W	Marco Polo Reyes	Building	18	Sep 21, 2019
L	Matt Sayles	Unproven	8	May 4, 2019
L	Diego Ferreira	Top-15	53	Dec 8, 2018

Per-bout quality scoring: champion = 100; same-division ranks 1–5 = 90 → 78 linear; ranks 6–15 = 75 → 60 linear; cross-division champion = 78; cross-division ranked = 45; title-fight challenger (no rank signal) = 50, bumped to 65 when opp had an elite career UFC record at the time. Unranked opponents are scored on UFC record-at-time (long-tenured vet 60, contender-level 45, established 30, building 18, unproven 8). P4P top-10 at time adds +5; top-3 adds +8 (capped at 100). The Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) and quality wins (35%), then is held toward a rookie baseline for fighters with limited UFC experience so a thin résumé reads honestly low.

Career cohorts

11 resolved UFC bouts

Performance broken down by situation — camp length, response to the previous result, title-fight presence, and rematches. Computed across every completed UFC bout.

Camp length

Days between fights

Short turnaround

< 100 days

1-0

1 bout

Typical camp

100–180 days

2-3

5 bouts

Long layoff

> 180 days

2-2

4 bouts

UFC debut

first UFC bout

0-1

1 bout

Post-result bounce

Performance based on the previous UFC result

After a loss

next bout after a defeat

2-2

4 bouts

After a win

next bout after a win

2-3

5 bouts

First UFC bout

no precedent

1-1

2 bouts

Title fights

Performance with a belt on the line

All title fights

as challenger or champion

—

As champion

defending the belt

—

As challenger

fighting for the belt

—

Rematches

Performance when meeting an opponent again

All rematches

any second meeting

—

Revenge bouts

lost the first meeting

—

Encore bouts

won the first meeting

—

Activity & layoff

Last fight, activity, and divisional context.

Time since last UFC bout

3 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Kyle Nelson

Active

3 monthssince last bout

vs Terrance McKinney · Mar 28, 2026

DraftKings fantasy scoring

DFSAs favorite 2-0As underdog 3-6

46.7

DK avg

46.8

Median

86.7

Ceiling

10.4

Floor

25%

Boom

25%

Bust

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