Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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25 fighters · / 100- 1
Deiveson Figueiredo5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 2
Brandon Moreno5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 3
Brandon Royval6-5 as underdog · 55%48.7 - 4
Jesus Aguilar4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 5
Kai Kara-France3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 6
Dustin Ortiz4-4 as underdog · 50%44.3 - 7
Charles Johnson3-3 as underdog · 50%43.1 - 8
Wilson Reis3-3 as underdog · 50%43.1 - 9
Jussier Formiga4-5 as underdog · 44%40.9 - 10
Matt Schnell4-5 as underdog · 44%40.9 - 11
John Moraga4-5 as underdog · 44%40.9 - 12
Kevin Borjas3-4 as underdog · 43%39.2 - 13
Malcolm Gordon2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 14
Louis Smolka2-3 as underdog · 40%36.8 - 15
Alex Perez3-5 as underdog · 38%35.9 - 16
Jimmy Flick2-4 as underdog · 33%33.1 - 17
Chris Cariaso2-5 as underdog · 29%30.1 - 18
Bruno Silva2-5 as underdog · 29%30.1 - 19
CJ Vergara2-5 as underdog · 29%30.1 - 20
Cody Durden3-8 as underdog · 27%28.7 - 21
Neil Seery1-4 as underdog · 20%25.7 - 22
Tyson Nam1-4 as underdog · 20%25.7 - 23
Carlos Hernandez1-4 as underdog · 20%25.7 - 24
Ode Osbourne1-4 as underdog · 20%25.7 - 25
Tim Elliott2-8 as underdog · 20%23.7