MMA Index
Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

17 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Deiveson Figueiredo
    Deiveson Figueiredo
    5-0 as underdog · 100%
    70.1
  2. 2
    Brandon Moreno
    Brandon Moreno
    5-1 as underdog · 83%
    63.1
  3. 3
    Kai Kara-France
    Kai Kara-France
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  4. 4
    Brandon Royval
    Brandon Royval
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  5. 5
    Jussier Formiga
    Jussier Formiga
    4-4 as underdog · 50%
    44.3
  6. 6
    Wilson Reis
    Wilson Reis
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  7. 7
    John Moraga
    John Moraga
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  8. 8
    Dustin Ortiz
    Dustin Ortiz
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  9. 9
    Louis Smolka
    Louis Smolka
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  10. 10
    Matt Schnell
    Matt Schnell
    3-5 as underdog · 38%
    35.9
  11. 11
    Chris Cariaso
    Chris Cariaso
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  12. 12
    Bruno Silva
    Bruno Silva
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  13. 13
    Alex Perez
    Alex Perez
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  14. 14
    Tyson Nam
    Tyson Nam
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  15. 15
    Neil Seery
    Neil Seery
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  16. 16
    Cody Durden
    Cody Durden
    2-7 as underdog · 22%
    25.5
  17. 17
    Tim Elliott
    Tim Elliott
    2-8 as underdog · 20%
    23.7