Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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50 fighters · / 100- 1
Jan Blachowicz10-3 as underdog · 77%66.5 - 2
Amanda Nunes6-1 as underdog · 86%66.5 - 3
Sean Strickland7-2 as underdog · 78%63.9 - 4
Brandon Moreno5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 5
Ben Rothwell5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 6
Justin Gaethje8-3 as underdog · 73%62.1 - 7
Rani Yahya6-2 as underdog · 75%60.9 - 8
Aiemann Zahabi4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 9
James Krause4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 10
Krzysztof Jotko4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 11
Michael Trizano4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 12
Brendan Allen5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 13
Carla Esparza5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 14
Brian Ortega5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 15
Yoel Romero6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 16
Dustin Poirier6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 17
Deiveson Figueiredo7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 18
Robert Whittaker7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 19
Belal Muhammad7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 20
Nikita Krylov4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 21
Ketlen Vieira4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 22
Chris Weidman4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 23
Kenny Robertson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 24
Mario Bautista4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 25
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 26
Sean Pierson4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 27
Alejandro Perez4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 28
Abel Trujillo5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 29
Aljamain Sterling5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 30CPConstantinos Philippou5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6
- 31
Carlos Condit5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 32
Rob Font6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 33
Daniel Kelly6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 34
Beneil Dariush6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 35
Julian Erosa7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 36
Michael Johnson7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 37
Charles Oliveira8-6 as underdog · 57%51.7 - 38
Derrick Lewis7-6 as underdog · 54%48.9 - 39
Tim Boetsch7-6 as underdog · 54%48.9 - 40
Raquel Pennington6-5 as underdog · 55%48.7 - 41
Roman Dolidze5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 42
Diego Ferreira5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 43
Anthony Perosh5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 44
Alexander Volkov5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 45
Derek Brunson5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 46
Chan Sung Jung5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 47
Paul Felder5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 48
Giga Chikadze4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 49
Eddie Alvarez4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 50
Viviane Araujo4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3