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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

9 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Dustin Ortiz
    Dustin Ortiz
    4-4 as underdog · 50%
    44.3
  2. 2
    Wilson Reis
    Wilson Reis
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  3. 3
    John Moraga
    John Moraga
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  4. 4
    Jussier Formiga
    Jussier Formiga
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  5. 5
    Malcolm Gordon
    Malcolm Gordon
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  6. 6
    Louis Smolka
    Louis Smolka
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  7. 7
    Chris Cariaso
    Chris Cariaso
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  8. 8
    Neil Seery
    Neil Seery
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  9. 9
    Tyson Nam
    Tyson Nam
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7