Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Amanda Nunes
6-1 as underdog · 86%
66.5
2
Rani Yahya
7-3 as underdog · 70%
59.4
3
Krzysztof Jotko
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
4
James Krause
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
5
Fabricio Werdum
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
6
Ben Rothwell
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
7
Yoel Romero
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
8
Chris Weidman
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
9
Kenny Robertson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
10
Sean Pierson
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
11
Darren Till
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
12
Michael Trizano
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
13
Alejandro Perez
4-2 as underdog · 67%
53.1
14
Constantinos Philippou
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
15
Abel Trujillo
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
16
Daniel Kelly
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
17
Raquel Pennington
6-5 as underdog · 55%
48.7
18
Li Jingliang
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
19
Anthony Perosh
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
20
Thiago Alves
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
21
Carla Esparza
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
22
Derek Brunson
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
23
Paul Felder
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
24
Carlos Condit
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
25
Chan Sung Jung
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
26
Francimar Barroso
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
27
Stipe Miocic
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
28
Maryna Moroz
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
29
Eddie Alvarez
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
30
TJ Grant
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
31
Bryan Caraway
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
32
Corey Anderson
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
33
Akira Corassani
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
34
Dan Hardy
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
35
Leonardo Santos
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
36
Steven Siler
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
37
Nate Maness
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
38
Nina Nunes
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
39
Alan Belcher
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
40
Pablo Garza
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
41
Zak Cummings
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
42
Marcus Brimage
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
43
Brian Ebersole
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
44
Jorge Rivera
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
45
John Lineker
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
46
Dennis Hallman
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
47
Bill Algeo
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
48
Claudio Silva
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
49
Tim Boetsch
7-7 as underdog · 50%
46.2
50
Glover Teixeira
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1