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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

12 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Jan Blachowicz
    Jan Blachowicz
    10-3 as underdog · 77%
    66.5
  2. 2
    Khalil Rountree Jr.
    Khalil Rountree Jr.
    6-4 as underdog · 60%
    52.2
  3. 3
    Alonzo Menifield
    Alonzo Menifield
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  4. 4
    Ryan Spann
    Ryan Spann
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  5. 5
    Volkan Oezdemir
    Volkan Oezdemir
    5-5 as underdog · 50%
    45.1
  6. 6
    Nikita Krylov
    Nikita Krylov
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  7. 7
    Paul Craig
    Paul Craig
    5-6 as underdog · 45%
    42.1
  8. 8
    Brendson Ribeiro
    Brendson Ribeiro
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  9. 9
    Johnny Walker
    Johnny Walker
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  10. 10
    Anthony Smith
    Anthony Smith
    5-8 as underdog · 38%
    37.1
  11. 11
    Marcin Prachnio
    Marcin Prachnio
    3-5 as underdog · 38%
    35.9
  12. 12
    Ion Cutelaba
    Ion Cutelaba
    3-6 as underdog · 33%
    33.2