Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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50 fighters · / 100- 1
Jan Blachowicz10-3 as underdog · 77%66.5 - 2
Justin Gaethje9-3 as underdog · 75%64.5 - 3
Sean Strickland7-2 as underdog · 78%63.9 - 4
Brandon Moreno5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 5
Chris Duncan4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 6
Ketlen Vieira5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 7
Aiemann Zahabi5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 8
Brendan Allen5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 9
Mario Bautista5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 10
Nicolas Dalby6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 11
Dustin Poirier6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 12
Robert Whittaker7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 13
Belal Muhammad7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 14
Michael Johnson8-5 as underdog · 62%54.8 - 15
Charles Oliveira9-6 as underdog · 60%54.3 - 16
Steve Garcia4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 17
Raoni Barcelos4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 18
Chris Weidman4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 19
Daniel Rodriguez4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 20
Aljamain Sterling5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 21
Brian Ortega5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 22
Renato Moicano5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 23
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 24
Khalil Rountree Jr.6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 25
Beneil Dariush6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 26
Rob Font6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 27
Deiveson Figueiredo7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 28
Julian Erosa8-6 as underdog · 57%51.7 - 29
Neil Magny11-10 as underdog · 52%49.2 - 30
Darren Elkins10-9 as underdog · 53%49.2 - 31
Brandon Royval6-5 as underdog · 55%48.7 - 32
Rose Namajunas5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 33
Alexander Volkov5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 34
Diego Ferreira5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 35
Matt Frevola4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 36
Alonzo Menifield4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 37
Jesus Aguilar4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 38
Nate Landwehr4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 39
JJ Aldrich4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 40
Nikita Krylov4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 41
Miesha Tate3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 42
Alexander Volkanovski3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 43
Vicente Luque3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 44
Jasmine Jasudavicius3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 45
Joaquin Buckley3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 46
Muslim Salikhov3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 47
Kai Kara-France3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 48
Andre Muniz3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 49
Kaan Ofli3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 50
Derrick Lewis8-8 as underdog · 50%46.6