Proprietary metrics · Upset Index
Upset Index
The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.
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50 fighters · / 100- 1
Jan Blachowicz10-3 as underdog · 77%66.5 - 2
Sean Strickland7-2 as underdog · 78%63.9 - 3
Brandon Moreno5-1 as underdog · 83%63.1 - 4
Justin Gaethje8-3 as underdog · 73%62.1 - 5
Aiemann Zahabi4-1 as underdog · 80%59.0 - 6
Brian Ortega5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 7
Brendan Allen5-2 as underdog · 71%57.4 - 8
Dustin Poirier6-3 as underdog · 67%56.2 - 9
Robert Whittaker7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 10
Deiveson Figueiredo7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 11
Belal Muhammad7-4 as underdog · 64%55.4 - 12
Nikita Krylov4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 13
Chris Weidman4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 14
Mario Bautista4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 15
Ketlen Vieira4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos4-2 as underdog · 67%53.1 - 17
Aljamain Sterling5-3 as underdog · 63%52.6 - 18
Beneil Dariush6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 19
Rob Font6-4 as underdog · 60%52.2 - 20
Michael Johnson7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 21
Julian Erosa7-5 as underdog · 58%52.0 - 22
Charles Oliveira8-6 as underdog · 57%51.7 - 23
Derrick Lewis7-6 as underdog · 54%48.9 - 24
Roman Dolidze5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 25
Alexander Volkov5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 26
Diego Ferreira5-4 as underdog · 56%48.6 - 27
Nate Landwehr4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 28
Viviane Araujo4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 29
Nicolas Dalby4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 30
Matt Frevola4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 31
Giga Chikadze4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 32
Renato Moicano4-3 as underdog · 57%48.3 - 33
Kai Kara-France3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 34
Daniel Rodriguez3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 35
Vicente Luque3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 36
Brunno Ferreira3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 37
Alexander Volkanovski3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 38
Khalil Rountree Jr.3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 39
Vinc Pichel3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 40
Jake Matthews3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 41
Joaquin Buckley3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 42
Raoni Barcelos3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 43
Ricardo Ramos3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 44
Andre Muniz3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 45
Jasmine Jasudavicius3-2 as underdog · 60%47.9 - 46
Neil Magny10-10 as underdog · 50%47.1 - 47
Darren Elkins9-9 as underdog · 50%46.9 - 48
Cub Swanson8-8 as underdog · 50%46.6 - 49
Josh Emmett6-6 as underdog · 50%45.7 - 50
Alex Morono5-5 as underdog · 50%45.1