Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

28 fighters · / 100

1
Anthony Perosh
5-3 as underdog · 63%
52.6
2
Corey Anderson
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
3
Glover Teixeira
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
4
Ryan Bader
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
5
Cyrille Diabate
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
6
Francimar Barroso
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
7
Ovince Saint Preux
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
8
Ed Herman
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
9
Mauricio Rua
5-7 as underdog · 42%
39.5
10
Kyle Kingsbury
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
11
Eliot Marshall
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
12
Ilir Latifi
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
13
Thiago Silva
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
14
Rogerio Nogueira
4-7 as underdog · 36%
35.4
15
Dan Henderson
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
16
Jimi Manuwa
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
17
Igor Pokrajac
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
18
Devin Clark
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
19
Keith Jardine
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
20
Patrick Cummins
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
21
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
22
Rashad Evans
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
23
Matt Hamill
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
24
Sam Alvey
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
Alexander Gustafsson
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
26
Sean O'Connell
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
27
Gian Villante
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
28
Tito Ortiz
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0