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Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

41 fighters · / 100
  1. 1
    Abel Trujillo
    Abel Trujillo
    5-3 as underdog · 63%
    52.6
  2. 2
    Paul Felder
    Paul Felder
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  3. 3
    Donald Cerrone
    Donald Cerrone
    5-4 as underdog · 56%
    48.6
  4. 4
    Nate Diaz
    Nate Diaz
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  5. 5
    Eddie Alvarez
    Eddie Alvarez
    4-3 as underdog · 57%
    48.3
  6. 6
    Leonardo Santos
    Leonardo Santos
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  7. 7
    Dennis Siver
    Dennis Siver
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  8. 8
    James Vick
    James Vick
    3-2 as underdog · 60%
    47.9
  9. 9
    Rafael Dos Anjos
    Rafael Dos Anjos
    4-4 as underdog · 50%
    44.3
  10. 10
    Diego Sanchez
    Diego Sanchez
    3-3 as underdog · 50%
    43.1
  11. 11
    Nik Lentz
    Nik Lentz
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  12. 12
    Francisco Trinaldo
    Francisco Trinaldo
    4-5 as underdog · 44%
    40.9
  13. 13
    Evan Dunham
    Evan Dunham
    3-4 as underdog · 43%
    39.2
  14. 14
    John Makdessi
    John Makdessi
    4-6 as underdog · 40%
    37.9
  15. 15
    Melvin Guillard
    Melvin Guillard
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  16. 16
    Alan Patrick
    Alan Patrick
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  17. 17
    Tae Hyun Bang
    Tae Hyun Bang
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  18. 18
    Sam Stout
    Sam Stout
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  19. 19
    Marco Polo Reyes
    Marco Polo Reyes
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  20. 20
    Reza Madadi
    Reza Madadi
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  21. 21
    Chris Gruetzemacher
    Chris Gruetzemacher
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  22. 22
    Brad Riddell
    Brad Riddell
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  23. 23
    Al Iaquinta
    Al Iaquinta
    2-3 as underdog · 40%
    36.8
  24. 24
    Joe Lauzon
    Joe Lauzon
    4-7 as underdog · 36%
    35.4
  25. 25
    Yves Edwards
    Yves Edwards
    2-4 as underdog · 33%
    33.1
  26. 26
    Efrain Escudero
    Efrain Escudero
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  27. 27
    Mitch Clarke
    Mitch Clarke
    2-5 as underdog · 29%
    30.1
  28. 28
    Danny Castillo
    Danny Castillo
    2-6 as underdog · 25%
    27.6
  29. 29
    Tony Ferguson
    Tony Ferguson
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  30. 30
    Damien Brown
    Damien Brown
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  31. 31
    Thibault Gouti
    Thibault Gouti
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  32. 32
    Mike Breeden
    Mike Breeden
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  33. 33
    Matt Wiman
    Matt Wiman
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  34. 34
    Gray Maynard
    Gray Maynard
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  35. 35
    Piotr Hallmann
    Piotr Hallmann
    1-4 as underdog · 20%
    25.7
  36. 36
    Christos Giagos
    Christos Giagos
    2-8 as underdog · 20%
    23.7
  37. 37
    Rafaello Oliveira
    Rafaello Oliveira
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  38. 38
    Ross Pearson
    Ross Pearson
    1-5 as underdog · 17%
    23.1
  39. 39
    Takanori Gomi
    Takanori Gomi
    2-9 as underdog · 18%
    22.1
  40. 40
    Yancy Medeiros
    Yancy Medeiros
    1-7 as underdog · 13%
    19.3
  41. 41
    Gleison Tibau
    Gleison Tibau
    0-5 as underdog · 0%
    14.6