Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

32 fighters · / 100

1
Krzysztof Jotko
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
CP
Constantinos Philippou
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
3
Yoel Romero
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
4
Daniel Kelly
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
5
Tim Boetsch
7-5 as underdog · 58%
52.0
6
Derek Brunson
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
7
Darren Stewart
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
8
Brad Scott
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
9
Yushin Okami
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
10
Uriah Hall
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
11
CB Dollaway
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
12
Chris Leben
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
13
David Branch
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
14
Chris Camozzi
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
15
Alessio Di Chirico
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
16
Dan Henderson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
17
Rafael Natal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
18
Thiago Santos
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
19
Nate Marquardt
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
20
Jamie Pickett
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
21
Trevor Smith
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
22
Michael Bisping
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
23
Garreth McLellan
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
24
Eric Spicely
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
25
John Phillips
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
26
Mark Munoz
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
27
Thales Leites
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
28
Sam Alvey
2-8 as underdog · 20%
23.7
29
Denis Tiuliulin
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
30
Markus Perez
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
31
Jack Marshman
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
32
Vitor Belfort
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6