Rafael Natal Record, Stats & Next Fight

UFC fight history

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Event	Date
L	Eryk Anders Middleweight	KO/TKO	Punch to Head In Clinch	R1	2:54	UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum	Jul 22, 2017
L	#15Tim Boetsch Middleweight	KO/TKO	Punches to Head At Distance	R1	3:22	UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor	Nov 12, 2016
L	#7Robert Whittaker Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux	Apr 23, 2016
W	Kevin Casey Middleweight	KO/TKO	Punches to Head From Mount	R3	3:37	UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader	Jan 30, 2016
W	Uriah Hall Middleweight	Decision	Split	R3	5:00	UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier	May 23, 2015
W	Tom Watson Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz	Jan 31, 2015
W	Chris Camozzi Middleweight	Decision	Split	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Mousasi	Sep 5, 2014
L	Ed Herman Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva	May 10, 2014
L	Tim Kennedy Middleweight	KO/TKO	Punch to Head At Distance	R1	4:40	UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3	Nov 6, 2013
W	Tor Troeng Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs. Bader	Sep 4, 2013
W	Joao Zeferino Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold	May 18, 2013
W	Sean Spencer Middleweight	Submission	Arm Triangle From Mount	R3	2:13	UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson	Jan 26, 2013
L	Andrew Craig Middleweight	KO/TKO	Kick to Head At Distance	R2	4:52	UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs. Weidman	Jul 11, 2012
W	Michael Kuiper Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit	Feb 4, 2012
W	Paul Bradley Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC 133: Evans vs. Ortiz 2	Aug 6, 2011
D	Jesse Bongfeldt Middleweight	Draw	—	R3	5:00	UFC 124: St-Pierre vs. Koscheck 2	Dec 11, 2010
L	Rich Attonito Middleweight	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs. Palhares	Sep 15, 2010

Outside the UFC

12-2across 14 bouts · 12 promotions · wins by 3 KO · 7 sub · 2 decXFC · CN 12 · Moosin · ROC 26 · ROC 25 +7

Res	Opponent	Outcome	Finish	Rd	Time	Promotion	Date
W	Travis Lutter10-6	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	4:12	Moosin	May 21, 2010
W	Allan Weickert6-9	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R1	2:53	ROC 26	Sep 11, 2009
L	Victor O'Donnell11-4	KO/TKO	Doctor Stoppage	R1	5:00	ROC 25	Jun 12, 2009
W	Plinio Cruz8-9	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R2	3:13	ROC 24	Apr 17, 2009
W	Alexandre Moreno12-3	KO/TKO	Punch	R1	3:59	ROC 23	Feb 20, 2009
W	Jon Kirk19-14	Submission	Rear-Naked Choke	R1	3:19	SWC 2	Nov 28, 2008
L	Eduardo Telles5-2	KO/TKO	Head Kick	R2	2:18	Fury FC 6	Jul 12, 2008
W	Silmar Rodrigo15-6	Decision	Unanimous	R3	5:00	MTL	Aug 11, 2007
W	Gerson da Silva Conceicao8-8	Decision	—	R1	10:00	XFC	Apr 29, 2007
W	Nailson Bahia0-1	Submission	Armbar	R1	1:24	XFC	Apr 29, 2007
W	Danillo Villefort15-6	KO/TKO	Punches	R1	—	GFC 1	May 20, 2006
W	Carlos Eduardo Santos3-8	Submission	Guillotine Choke	R2	2:46	WF	Oct 1, 2005
W	Valter Luiz da Silva9-7-1	Submission	Keylock	R2	0:55	CN 12	May 6, 2005
W	Emerson Avila2-8	Submission	Rear Naked Choke	R1	1:58	CN 12	May 6, 2005

Non-UFC bouts (regional/other promotions) and Dana White’s Contender Series — shown for context only, excluded from Schedule Score, striking/grappling rates, and every UFC-scoped metric.

Method of victory & defeat

KO / TKO

4 wins, 6 losses

W4

L6

Submission

8 wins, 0 losses

W8

L0

Decision

9 wins, 3 losses

W9

L3

Finishes

UFC KOs

1

Below avg · 15%Middleweight

Knockdowns / fight

0.29

Above avg · 0.24Middleweight

UFC submissions

1

Below avg · 8%Middleweight

Submission attempts / fight

0.41

Above avg · 0.39Middleweight

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability (UFC; clean KOs only).

Rafael Natal

PowerChin

Knockout rate

6%

1 KO/TKO wins

Knockdowns dealt

5

1.32 per 100 head

Clean KO losses

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Knockdowns absorbed

6

1.90 per 100 head

Chin gauges use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Never submittedin the UFC

Decision behavior

Judging

7 scorecards on file

Rafael Natal

Scorecard luck

Cards have leaned their way

Won 2 of 2 coin-flip decisions — the kind of close calls that have tended to fall their way. Judges have given them 2 of 7 rounds they disagreed on (29%).

Coin-flip decisions

Split + majority

2–0

Won – Lost

Swing rounds

Judges disagreed

2–5

Won – Lost

29% went their way

Unanimous5 decisions · 71%

3W2L

Split2 decisions · 29%

2W

Majority

None

10-8 rounds

1 round total

1

Won

0

Lost

Most frequent judges

All judges →

Scorecard data ingested from MMA Decisions

Career striking

OverallC57th

47%656 / 1,370

Striking accuracy

57%

Striking defense

Sig. strikes / min+0.62 differential

Landed3.10

Absorbed2.48

67%str + td

Defensive rating

Striking edge

+4%accuracy vs opp. landing

worseevenbetter

Strike maps

Sig. strikes by target

Head58%52nd379
Body14%40th93
Leg28%83rd184

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Sig. strikes by position

66%Standing

Standing66%432
Clinch12%79
Ground22%145

Striking zones

Per-15-minute breakdown — where this fighter lands, and where they get hit.

UFC only

Rafael Natal

Landed per 15

Head

C

50th

26.9

50th

Body

D

35th

6.6

35th

Leg

A+

87th

13.0

87th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Absorbed per 15

Head

A

73rd

22.3

73rd

Body

A

78th

5.2

78th

Leg

D

28th

9.6

28th

Ranks are division percentiles — e.g. 90th = top 10% of the weight class. Higher is always better: on “absorbed” rows the rank is inverted, so a high rank means they get hit less.

Career totals — landed / attempted

Landed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	26.9	379	976	39%
Body	6.6	93	171	54%
Leg	13.0	184	223	83%

Absorbed (career total)

Zone	Per 15	Landed	Attempted	Accuracy
Head	22.3	315	950	33%
Body	5.2	73	117	62%
Leg	9.6	136	169	80%

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Percentiles vs the division; absorbed is inverted so higher is better.

Grappling

Per-15-minute breakdown of takedowns, submissions, and ground control.

UFC only

Rafael Natal

34%

Takedown accuracy

77%

Takedown defense

Control / 15 min+1.6 min net

On top3.8

On bottom2.2

Offense

Takedowns

A

80th

2.6

80th

TD accuracy

C

44th

34%

44th

Sub attempts

C

56th

0.5

56th

Control

B

63rd

3.8 min

63rd

Defense

TD defense

A

73rd

77%

73rd

Controlled

2.2 min

Career totals — landed / attempted, control time

Offense

Takedowns	36 / 105
Submission attempts	7
Control time	53:39

Defense

TDs defended	27 / 35
Control absorbed	30:47

Rates above are per 15 minutes of UFC fight time (212min total). Value colors reflect the per-15 rate’s percentile against the current weight class baseline; raw totals without a division reference stay neutral.

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Rafael Natal

17 UFC bouts (per‑round) · 212 min

101%

R3 pace · 13 bouts

Natal holds steady (+1% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Natal sustains 101% of round-1 output by round 3 (13 bouts).

Natal — HOLDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs — splitting them out shows whether the work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control, and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Natallanded / min

Takedown attempts

Natalattempts / min

Control time

Natal% of round

Round	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	5.0	2.8	2.3	0.44	19%	17
R2	6.8	3.6	1.9	0.60	34%	14
R3	5.1	2.9	3.4	0.44	23%	13

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked across the UFC. Recent fights weighted heavier.

UFC only

Rafael Natal

17 resolved UFC bouts · 2 ranked at the time

Schedule Score

35/ 100

0255075100

Schedule strength

C

49th

32%

49th

Win quality

C

46th

39%

46th

Opponent quality distribution

Every UFC bout, grouped by who the opponent was at the time.

2

3

8

ChampionHeld the title in this weight class at the time
Top-5Ranked #1–#5 at the time
Top-15Ranked #6–#15 at the time
Established5+ UFC wins entering the bout, ≥.500
Building3+ UFC fights, ≥.40 win rate
UnprovenFewer than 3 fights, or sub-.40 win rate

Tier	Bouts	Record	Win rate
Champion	1	0-1	0%
Top-5	1	0-1	0%
Top-15	2	1-1	50%
Established	2	0-2	0%
Building	3	1-2	33%
Unproven	8	7-0-1	100%

Highest-quality opponents

Toughest opponents on the scheduleScore, scored at the time of the fight.

All bouts — opponent quality bout-by-bout

Res	Opponent	Tier	Score	Date
L	Eryk Anders	Established	22	Jul 22, 2017
L	Tim Boetsch#15	Top-15	67	Nov 12, 2016
L	Robert Whittaker#7	Champion	91	Apr 23, 2016
W	Kevin Casey	Unproven	8	Jan 30, 2016
W	Uriah Hall	Top-15	53	May 23, 2015
W	Tom Watson	Unproven	12	Jan 31, 2015
W	Chris Camozzi	Building	22	Sep 5, 2014
L	Ed Herman	Established	35	May 10, 2014
L	Tim Kennedy	Top-5	54	Nov 6, 2013
W	Tor Troeng	Unproven	8	Sep 4, 2013
W	Joao Zeferino	Unproven	8	May 18, 2013
W	Sean Spencer	Unproven	8	Jan 26, 2013
L	Andrew Craig	Building	15	Jul 11, 2012
W	Michael Kuiper	Unproven	8	Feb 4, 2012
W	Paul Bradley	Unproven	8	Aug 6, 2011
D	Jesse Bongfeldt	Unproven	8	Dec 11, 2010
L	Rich Attonito	Building	15	Sep 15, 2010

Per-bout quality scoring: champion = 100; same-division ranks 1–5 = 90 → 78 linear; ranks 6–15 = 75 → 60 linear; cross-division champion = 78; cross-division ranked = 45; title-fight challenger (no rank signal) = 50, bumped to 65 when opp had an elite career UFC record at the time. Unranked opponents are scored on UFC record-at-time (long-tenured vet 60, contender-level 45, established 30, building 18, unproven 8). P4P top-10 at time adds +5; top-3 adds +8 (capped at 100). The Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) and quality wins (35%), then is held toward a rookie baseline for fighters with limited UFC experience so a thin résumé reads honestly low.

Career cohorts

16 resolved UFC bouts

Performance broken down by situation — camp length, response to the previous result, title-fight presence, and rematches. Computed across every completed UFC bout.

Camp length

Days between fights

Short turnaround

< 100 days

0-2

2 bouts

Typical camp

100–180 days

5-1

6 bouts

Long layoff

> 180 days

4-3

7 bouts

UFC debut

first UFC bout

0-1

1 bout

Post-result bounce

Performance based on the previous UFC result

After a loss

next bout after a defeat

2-3

5 bouts

After a win

next bout after a win

6-3

9 bouts

First UFC bout

no precedent

1-1

2 bouts

Title fights

Performance with a belt on the line

All title fights

as challenger or champion

—

As champion

defending the belt

—

As challenger

fighting for the belt

—

Rematches

Performance when meeting an opponent again

All rematches

any second meeting

—

Revenge bouts

lost the first meeting

—

Encore bouts

won the first meeting

—

Activity & layoff

Last fight, activity, and divisional context.

Time since last UFC bout

8y 11mo

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Rafael Natal

Extended layoff

8y 11mosince last bout

vs Eryk Anders · Jul 22, 2017

DraftKings fantasy scoring

DFSAs favorite 7-3As underdog 2-4

57.3

DK avg

61.3

Median

104.5

Ceiling

5.8

Floor

29%

Boom

18%

Bust

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