Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

25 fighters · / 100

1
Chris Weidman
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Sean Strickland
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
3
Brendan Allen
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
4
Robert Whittaker
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
5
Andre Muniz
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
6
Roman Dolidze
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
7
Brunno Ferreira
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
8
Chris Curtis
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
9
Cody Brundage
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
10
Jared Cannonier
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
11
Paulo Costa
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
12
Jack Hermansson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
13
Abus Magomedov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
14
JunYong Park
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
15
Roman Kopylov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
16
Andre Petroski
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
17
Gerald Meerschaert
7-14 as underdog · 33%
33.2
18
Brad Tavares
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
19
Sedriques Dumas
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
20
Kelvin Gastelum
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
21
Dustin Stoltzfus
2-7 as underdog · 22%
25.5
22
Bruno Silva
1-5 as underdog · 17%
23.1
23
Eryk Anders
1-6 as underdog · 14%
21.0
24
Marvin Vettori
0-5 as underdog · 0%
14.6
25
Marc-Andre Barriault
0-7 as underdog · 0%
11.9