Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Sean Strickland
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Krzysztof Jotko
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
3
Chris Weidman
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
4
Constantinos Philippou
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
5
Brendan Allen
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
6
Robert Whittaker
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
7
Yoel Romero
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
8
Daniel Kelly
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
9
Tim Boetsch
7-5 as underdog · 58%
52.0
10
Derek Brunson
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Darren Stewart
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
12
BS
Brad Scott
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
13
Yushin Okami
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
14
Jorge Rivera
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
15
Alan Belcher
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
16
Andre Muniz
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
Roman Dolidze
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
18
CB Dollaway
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
19
Uriah Hall
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
20
Kendall Grove
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
21
Brunno Ferreira
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
22
Chael Sonnen
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
23
Ed Herman
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
24
Chris Curtis
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
25
Cody Brundage
5-6 as underdog · 45%
42.1
26
Jared Cannonier
4-5 as underdog · 44%
40.9
27
David Branch
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
28
Chris Leben
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
29
Chris Camozzi
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
30
Tom Lawlor
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Thiago Santos
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Paulo Costa
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Abus Magomedov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
JunYong Park
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Andre Petroski
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Jack Hermansson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
37
Rafael Natal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
38
Roman Kopylov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
39
Alessio Di Chirico
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
40
Gerald Meerschaert
7-14 as underdog · 33%
33.2
41
Nate Marquardt
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
42
Brad Tavares
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
43
Michael Bisping
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
44
Kelvin Gastelum
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
45
Maki Pitolo
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
46
Sedriques Dumas
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
47
Dan Henderson
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
48
Trevor Smith
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
49
Jamie Pickett
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
50
Thales Leites
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1