Proprietary metrics · Upset Index

Upset Index

The giant-killers board — how often a fighter WINS as the betting underdog (positive pre-fight moneyline), across their UFC career. Underdog win rate shrunk toward the corpus mean (~33%) so small samples stay honest, scaled 0–100. Min 5 underdog bouts.

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Leaderboard

50 fighters · / 100

1
Krzysztof Jotko
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
2
Sean Strickland
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
3
Chris Weidman
4-1 as underdog · 80%
59.0
4
CP
Constantinos Philippou
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
5
Brendan Allen
5-2 as underdog · 71%
57.4
6
Robert Whittaker
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
7
Yoel Romero
6-3 as underdog · 67%
56.2
8
Daniel Kelly
6-4 as underdog · 60%
52.2
9
Tim Boetsch
7-5 as underdog · 58%
52.0
10
Derek Brunson
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
11
Roman Dolidze
5-4 as underdog · 56%
48.6
12
Darren Stewart
4-3 as underdog · 57%
48.3
13
Andre Muniz
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
14
Brunno Ferreira
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
15
Alan Belcher
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
16
Jorge Rivera
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
17
Brad Scott
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
18
Yushin Okami
3-2 as underdog · 60%
47.9
19
CB Dollaway
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
20
Uriah Hall
5-5 as underdog · 50%
45.1
21
Jared Cannonier
4-4 as underdog · 50%
44.3
22
Ed Herman
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
23
Chris Curtis
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
24
Kendall Grove
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
25
Chael Sonnen
3-3 as underdog · 50%
43.1
26
David Branch
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
27
Chris Leben
3-4 as underdog · 43%
39.2
28
Chris Camozzi
4-6 as underdog · 40%
37.9
29
JunYong Park
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
30
Tom Lawlor
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
31
Thiago Santos
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
32
Alessio Di Chirico
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
33
Rafael Natal
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
34
Jack Hermansson
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
35
Roman Kopylov
2-3 as underdog · 40%
36.8
36
Gerald Meerschaert
7-13 as underdog · 35%
34.6
37
Brad Tavares
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
38
Michael Bisping
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
39
Cody Brundage
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
40
Nate Marquardt
3-6 as underdog · 33%
33.2
41
Kelvin Gastelum
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
42
Dan Henderson
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
43
Jamie Pickett
2-4 as underdog · 33%
33.1
44
Trevor Smith
3-7 as underdog · 30%
30.8
45
Thales Leites
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
46
Dustin Stoltzfus
2-5 as underdog · 29%
30.1
47
Alessio Sakara
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
48
Bruno Silva
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
49
Eric Spicely
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7
50
Garreth McLellan
1-4 as underdog · 20%
25.7