Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Abubakar Vagaev

edge

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Striking

Not enough data

Effective offense—0.8

Defense—58%

KO power—3 KO

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Not enough data

Takedowns landed—4.0

Takedown accuracy—40%

Takedown defense—100%

Control time—5.3 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Not enough data

Submission attempts—0.0

Sub win rate

C

52nd

4%

1 sub

+35

A+

87th

59%

13 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

D

41st

4%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Izagakhmaev ▸

Izagakhmaev finishes a higher share of wins — 73% (16/22) vs 21% (5/24).

Finish rate (of wins)

21% (5/24)

73% (16/22)

By KO/TKO

4

3

By submission

1

13

Avg finish round

R1.8 avg finish

Even

R1.7 avg finish

See full Finishes →

Pace

Izagakhmaev ▸

Izagakhmaev ends fights earlier — only 32% of bouts go the distance.

Goes the distance

71%

32%

Avg finish round

R1.8 avg finish

Even

R1.7 avg finish

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Similar recent form — Vagaev 4-1 in the last 5 (3-fight win streak), Izagakhmaev 4-1 (1-fight skid).

Last 5

4-1

Even

4-1

Current streak

3-fight win streak

1-fight skid

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition — opponents average 60% (Vagaev) vs 58% (Izagakhmaev) career win rate.

Opponents avg win rate

60%

Even

58%

Opponents with a record on file

28 of 28

25 of 25

See full Schedule →

Activity

Izagakhmaev ▸

Izagakhmaev is fresher and more active than Vagaev

Last bout

17mo

8mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

0

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

0

1

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Even physically

Abubakar VagaevvsSaygid Izagakhmaev

33

Age

2y

younger

31

6'0"

183cm

Height

Even

6'0"

183cm

—

Reach

—

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for each fighter, from opponents’ full pro records

Comparable level of opposition — both faced slates around .681 opponent win rate.

Abubakar Vagaev

Strong

Opponents' combined record

533-266-7

.667 win rate

Winning-record opponents

24 of 28

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

28

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Strong

Opponents' combined record

353-155-6

.695 win rate

Winning-record opponents

19 of 24

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

24

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 12m ago

Abubakar Vagaev

Consensus

70%▼ 2

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Vagaev

Kalshi69¢bestSportsbook-27571%

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Consensus

30%▲ 2

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Izagakhmaev

Kalshi32¢Sportsbook+23529%best

Vagaev 70%30% Izagakhmaev

$5k vol · $4k OI$3k vol · $2k OI

UFC betting history

Career

VagaevAbubakar Vagaev

IzagakhmaevSaygid Izagakhmaev

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi71%68%2 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

VagaevAbubakar Vagaev

Stat

IzagakhmaevSaygid Izagakhmaev

—

KO / TKO

—

0

—

Submission

—

0

—

Decision

—

1

—

Avg fight time

15:00

Abubakar Vagaev’s splits

vs Izagakhmaev

vs Orthodox

0-0no data

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Saygid Izagakhmaev’s splits

vs Vagaev

vs Orthodox

0-10%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Abubakar VagaevvsSaygid Izagakhmaev

33

Age

2y

younger

31

6'0"

183cm

Height

Even

6'0"

183cm

—

Reach

—

74"

188cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

F

25th

+23

C

48th

Izagakhmaev has the striking edge (+23).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Vagaev’s offensevsIzagakhmaev’s defense

Head

29.2

C

54th

28.9

Body

9.6

C

47th

9.9

Leg

8.3

C

50th

7.2

Izagakhmaev’s offensevsVagaev’s defense

Head

D

42nd

24.7

34.2

Body

C

56th

9.4

10.6

Leg

C

48th

6.2

8.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Abubakar Vagaev	29.2	—	34.2	0
Head	Saygid Izagakhmaev	below division average24.7	48%	around division average28.9	11
Body	Abubakar Vagaev	9.6	—	10.6	0
Body	Saygid Izagakhmaev	above division average9.4	90%	around division average9.9	9
Leg	Abubakar Vagaev	8.3	—	8.0	0
Leg	Saygid Izagakhmaev	around division average6.2	0%	around division average7.2	0

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Abubakar Vagaev

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Overall Grappling

Grappling

—

B

63rd

Takedowns

—

A

74th

4.0

Takedown accuracy

—

C

53rd

40%

4/10

Takedown defense

—

100%

2/2

Submission threat

—

B

60th

0.0

Control time

—

B

66th

5.3 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Abubakar Vagaev	Saygid Izagakhmaev
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.00	4.04
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	—0 / 0	40%4 / 10
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	—0 / 0	100%2 / 2
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.0 min0:00	5.3 min5:18
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.0 min0:00	6.5 min6:29

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Abubakar Vagaev

—

Schedule Score

Saygid Izagakhmaev

28

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

UFC debut

Octagon time

—

15 min

1 bout

Schedule strength

—%

40%

Win quality

—%

10%

Ranked opponents

0

Even

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Abubakar Vagaev	Saygid Izagakhmaev
Contender-level	—	0-1

Abubakar Vagaev — bouts

No resolved UFC bouts.

Saygid Izagakhmaev — bouts

L vs Nicolas Dalby40
Nov 22, 2025 · Contender-level

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Abubakar Vagaev

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Vagaev — pre-UFC · last 5

recent → old

WACA

DEC

Tumenov

Feb ’25

WACA

DEC

Esengulov

Mar ’24

WACA

DEC

Prazeres

Sep ’23

LACA

KO R2

Slipenko

Dec ’22

WACA

DEC

Gadzhidaudov

Mar ’22

Izagakhmaev — last 5

recent → old

WONE

KO R1

Aoki

Nov ’22

WONE

DEC

Zhang

Sep ’22

WONE

SUB R2

Nakashima

Jan ’22

WEFC

SUB R2

Butorin

Sep ’21

Last 5 record

4-1

Even

4-1

Current streak

W3

L1

Ranked opps

0 of 5

Even

0 of 5

Layoff

1.4 yr

8 mo

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Abubakar Vagaev

Saygid Izagakhmaev

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Vagaev5W–3L by finish · 80% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Izagakhmaev16W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑52%·Izagakhmaev

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑52%·Izagakhmaev

F

2nd

21%

+43

C

45th

73%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

71%

32%

KO durability

↑11%·Izagakhmaev

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑11%·Izagakhmaev

C

46th

11%

+39

A

85th

0%

Submission defense

↑4%·Vagaev

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Vagaev

B

67th

0%

+11

C

56th

4%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Abubakar Vagaev	Saygid Izagakhmaev
Wins
by KO / TKO	4(17%)	3(14%)
by submission	1(4%)	13(59%)
by decision	19(79%)	6(27%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	3(75%)	0(0%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(33%)
by decision	1(25%)	2(67%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Abubakar Vagaev

vs

Saygid Izagakhmaev

0%

0 KO/TKO in 0 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 1 bout

0

—

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

—

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Abubakar VagaevFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Saygid IzagakhmaevFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Abubakar Vagaev

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Saygid Izagakhmaev

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Neither fighter has reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a reliable pace pattern — most of their fights end early. The round-by-round pace below is shown for what rounds there are.

Not enough shared rounds with per-round data to plot a comparable pace curve — at least one fighter rarely sees the later rounds.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Abubakar Vagaev	—	—	—	—	—	—
R1	Saygid Izagakhmaev	3.3	1.4	1.0	0.40	18%	1
R2	Abubakar Vagaev	—	—	—	—	—	—
R2	Saygid Izagakhmaev	4.4	0.4	0.6	0.60	56%	1
R3	Abubakar Vagaev	—	—	—	—	—	—
R3	Saygid Izagakhmaev	6.5	2.2	3.6	1.00	33%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.

Activity & layoff

Activity and recency vs division peers.

Matchup-relevant delta

Abubakar has 9 months more layoff

Time since last bout

Abubakar1y 5mo

Saygid7 months

Active

0–6 mo

Normal

6–12 mo

Layoff

12–18 mo

Extended

18+ mo

Abubakar Vagaev

Layoff

1y 5mosince last bout

vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 8, 2025

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Within a year

7 monthssince last bout

vs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 22, 2025

Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev — Welterweight at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Guskov