Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim — Welterweight at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Rounds
- 5 × 5 min
- Venue
- Meta Apex · Las Vegas, Nevada
Markets
- Belal Muhammad56%-142
- Gabriel Bonfim44%+116
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across the 20priced bouts in each fighter’s history.
Percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.
Career splits
20 bouts · vs Bonfim
- KO/TKO2
- Submission1
- Decision12
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision4
- Average15:52
- vs Orthodox11-2
- vs Southpaw4-2
- vs Switch0-1
- vs Longer reach11-5
- vs Shorter reach1-0
7 bouts · vs Muhammad
- KO/TKO1
- Submission3
- Decision2
- KO/TKO1
- Submission0
- Decision0
- Average8:19
- vs Orthodox6-1
- vs Southpawno data
- vs Switchno data
- vs Longer reachno data
- vs Shorter reachno data
Tale of the Tape
The biometric and experience deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFull method breakdown
| Outcome | Belal Muhammad | Gabriel Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 213% | 117% |
| by submission | 17% | 350% |
| by decision | 1280% | 233% |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 120% | 1100% |
| by submission | 00% | 00% |
| by decision | 480% | 00% |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R3 2:00 | R1 4:40 |
| Finishes used in avg | 3 | 4 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head — then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Sean Brady3y 7mo agoUFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022 · R2 · 4:47
- Last time KO'dvs Vicente Luque9y 6mo agoUFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016 · R1 · 1:19
- Last submission scoredvs Takashi Sato6y 8mo agoUFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 7, 2019 · R3 · 1:55
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last KO/TKO scoredvs Randy Brown6 months agoUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 8, 2025 · R2 · 1:40
- Last time KO'dvs Nicolas Dalby2y 6mo agoUFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 4, 2023 · R2 · 4:33
- Last submission scoredvs Khaos Williams1y 3mo agoUFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025 · R2 · 4:58
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
Common opponents
Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Belal Muhammad | Gabriel Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| Champion | 1-0 | — |
| Top-5 | 3-1, 1 NC | — |
| Top-15 | 4-1 | 1-0 |
| Long-tenured vet | — | 1-0 |
| Contender-level | 1-0 | — |
| Established | — | 2-1 |
| Building | 3-2 | 2-0 |
| Unproven | 3-1 | — |
- L vs Ian Machado Garry#675Nov 22, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Jack Della Maddalena#578May 10, 2025 · Top-5
- W vs Leon EdwardsCHAMP100Jul 27, 2024 · Champion
- W vs Gilbert Burns#578May 6, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Sean Brady#872Oct 22, 2022 · Top-15
- W vs Vicente Luque#481Apr 16, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Stephen Thompson#578Dec 18, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Demian Maia#970Jun 12, 2021 · Top-15
- NC vs Leon Edwards#384Mar 13, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Dhiego Lima18Feb 13, 2021 · Building
- W vs Lyman Good18Jun 20, 2020 · Building
- W vs Takashi Sato8Sep 7, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Curtis Millender#1560Apr 13, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Geoff Neal8Jan 19, 2019 · Unproven
- W vs Chance Rencountre8Jun 1, 2018 · Unproven
- W vs Tim Means45Nov 18, 2017 · Contender-level
- W vs Jordan Mein#1363Jul 8, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Randy Brown18Feb 11, 2017 · Building
- L vs Vicente Luque18Nov 12, 2016 · Building
- W vs Augusto Montano8Sep 17, 2016 · Unproven
- L vs Alan Jouban18Jul 7, 2016 · Building
- W vs Randy Brown60Nov 8, 2025 · Long-tenured vet
- W vs Stephen Thompson#1265Jul 12, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Khaos Williams30Feb 15, 2025 · Established
- W vs Ange Loosa18Jul 13, 2024 · Building
- L vs Nicolas Dalby30Nov 4, 2023 · Established
- W vs Trevin Giles30Jul 29, 2023 · Established
- W vs Mounir Lazzez18Jan 21, 2023 · Building
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%) and is Bayesian-shrunken toward the UFC median for small samples. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Recent form
Last five UFC bouts, current trajectory, and the level of opposition faced going into this matchup.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Belal Muhammad | 52.3top 10% of division | 39% | 32.5around division average | 1,107 |
| Head | Gabriel Bonfim | 36.6top 26% of division | 35% | 30.7around division average | 142 |
| Body | Belal Muhammad | 9.26around division average | 68% | 10.8below division average | 196 |
| Body | Gabriel Bonfim | 11.3above division average | 77% | 11.1below division average | 44 |
| Leg | Belal Muhammad | 5.58below division average | 85% | 14.1bottom of the division | 118 |
| Leg | Gabriel Bonfim | 19.6top 7% of division | 84% | 12.4well below average | 76 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Belal Muhammad | Gabriel Bonfim | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 46 / 14 |
| Takedown accuracy | 37% | 54% | 46/126 · 14/26 |
| Takedown defense | 90% | 76% | stopped 46/51 · 13/17 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 3 / 5 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 3.6 min | 3.1 min | 75:37 · 12:10 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 0.9 min | 1.3 min | 18:34 · 5:07 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Muhammad actually builds to 124% of round-1 work rate by round 3. Bonfim hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a fade pattern yet.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Belal Muhammad | 5.8 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 0.28 | 13% | 20 |
| R1 | Gabriel Bonfim | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.33 | 21% | 7 |
| R2 | Belal Muhammad | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.47 | 25% | 19 |
| R2 | Gabriel Bonfim | 6.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 0.52 | 18% | 5 |
| R3 | Belal Muhammad | 7.2 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 0.45 | 31% | 18 |
| R3 | Gabriel Bonfim | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.60 | 28% | 2 |
| R4 | Belal Muhammad | 6.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 0.30 | 31% | 4 |
| R4 | Gabriel Bonfim | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Belal Muhammad | 7.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 0.45 | 33% | 4 |
| R5 | Gabriel Bonfim | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.