Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Benoit Saint Denis

edge

Paddy Pimblett

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A+

97th

3.3

Even

A+

93rd

2.9

Defense

D

25th

42%

Even

D

27th

42%

KO power

B

6 KO

0.4 KD

+19

C

7 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Denis

Denis has the bigger wrestling edge on Pimblett

Takedowns landed

A+

94th

4.2

+61

D

33rd

0.7

Takedown accuracy

C

48th

36%

+23

D

26th

21%

Takedown defense

B

64th

72%

+35

D

29th

44%

Control time

A+

94th

7.1 min

+38

C

57th

3.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Denis

Denis is the bigger submission threat on Pimblett

Submission attempts

A+

90th

1.7

Even

A

83rd

1.2

Sub win rate

A+

90th

65%

11 subs

+10

A

80th

43%

10 subs

Submission defense

C

51st

0%

Even

C

49th

4%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Denis

Denis is more likely to finish Pimblett

Finish rate

A

82nd

100%

+16

B

66th

71%

KO durability

C

55th

8%

Even

B

61st

0%

Submission defense

C

51st

0%

Even

C

50th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Denis

Denis pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

10.6

7.0

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

10.6

6.6

Pace trend—+6%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Even

Comparable recent form

Win rate (career)

75%

88%

After a win

88%

Even

86%

Last 5

80%

Even

80%

Win streakW4L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

55%

59%

Win quality

64%

73%

Ranked opponents

8

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Denis

Denis has fought more often lately than Pimblett

Last bout

5mo

Even

6mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

3

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

5

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

◂ Denis

Denis 3 cm · Open-stance matchup

Benoit Saint DenisvsPaddy Pimblett

30

Age

1y

younger

31

5'11"

180cm

Height

1"

taller

5'10"

178cm

73"

185cm

Reach

Even

73"

185cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Benoit Saint DenisPaddy Pimblett

Percentile

Striking/min5.625.49

Accuracy%58%52%

Defense%42%42%

Takedowns/154.20.7

TD defense%72%44%

Submissions/151.81.2

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (421 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 11m ago

Benoit Saint Denis

Consensus

56%▲ 55

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Denis

Kalshi55¢bestSportsbook-14457%

Paddy Pimblett

Consensus

44%▲ 46

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Pimblett

Kalshi46¢Sportsbook+12443%best

Denis 56%44% Pimblett

$669k vol · $548k OI$4.6M vol · $4.3M OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Benoit Saint Denis

20%+335

20%+340

16%+428

Paddy Pimblett

14%+513

12%+600

17%+410

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Benoit Saint Denis

20%+335

20%+340

16%+428

Paddy Pimblett

14%+513

12%+600

17%+410

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over42%+123
Under58%-167

Goes the distance

Yes35%+165
No65%-225

UFC betting history

Career

DenisBenoit Saint Denis

PimblettPaddy Pimblett

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi59%55%4 pts

Sportsbook62%57%5 pts

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

DenisBenoit Saint Denis

Stat

PimblettPaddy Pimblett

5

2

KO / TKO

2

0

4

0

Submission

3

0

1

Decision

2

1

7:10

Avg fight time

10:56

Benoit Saint Denis’s splits

vs Pimblett

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Longer reach

3-0100%

vs Shorter reach

6-275%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Paddy Pimblett’s splits

vs Denis

vs Orthodox

5-183%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

5-183%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Benoit Saint DenisvsPaddy Pimblett

30

Age

1y

younger

31

5'11"

180cm

Height

1"

taller

5'10"

178cm

73"

185cm

Reach

Even

73"

185cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

62nd

Even

C

55th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Denis’s offensevsPimblett’s defense

Where Denis attacks (green = high volume) vs where Pimblett gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Denis’s green zones meeting Pimblett’s red zones are the openings.

Benoit Saint DenisOffense

Head63%85th303
Body27%89th128
Leg11%63rd52

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Paddy PimblettDefense

Head64%38th219
Body21%34th73
Leg14%43rd48

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Denis — by position

51%Standing

Standing51%244
Clinch18%87
Ground31%152

Pimblett — absorbed by position

77%Standing

Standing77%263
Clinch11%37
Ground12%40

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Denis’s offensevsPimblett’s defense

Head

A

85th

45.1

+46

D

38th

36.0

Body

A+

89th

18.1

+54

D

34th

11.8

Leg

B

63rd

8.7

+20

C

43rd

8.3

Pimblett’s offensevsDenis’s defense

Head

A

84th

43.7

+51

D

33rd

38.7

Body

A

72nd

13.3

+43

D

29th

12.5

Leg

A+

85th

13.7

+30

C

56th

6.8

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Benoit Saint Denis	top 15% of division45.1	50%	below division average38.7	303
Head	Paddy Pimblett	top 16% of division43.7	43%	below division average36.0	296
Body	Benoit Saint Denis	top 11% of division18.1	80%	well below average12.5	128
Body	Paddy Pimblett	top 28% of division13.3	77%	below division average11.8	87
Leg	Benoit Saint Denis	above division average8.7	96%	above division average6.8	52
Leg	Paddy Pimblett	top 15% of division13.7	91%	below division average8.3	97

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Benoit Saint Denis

Paddy Pimblett

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

75th

+28

C

47th

Denis holds a decisive grappling edge (+28).

Takedowns

A+

90th

4.2

+46

C

44th

0.7

Takedown accuracy

C

48th

36%

24/67

+23

D

26th

21%

4/19

Takedown defense

B

64th

72%

13/18

+35

D

29th

44%

12/27

Submission threat

A+

86th

1.7

Even

A

79th

1.2

Control time

A+

88th

7.1 min

+32

C

56th

3.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Benoit Saint Denis	Paddy Pimblett
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	4.224	0.74
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	36%24 / 67	21%4 / 19
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	72%13 / 18	44%12 / 27
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.710	1.27
Control time / 15 (min)career total	7.1 min40:54	3.0 min17:44
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.7 min9:42	4.1 min23:41

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Benoit Saint Denis

59

Schedule Score

Paddy Pimblett

66

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

86 min

12 bouts

Octagon time

1 min

more

87 min

8 bouts

Schedule strength

55%

59%

Win quality

64%

73%

Ranked opponents

8

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Benoit Saint Denis	Paddy Pimblett
Champion	—	0-1
Top-5	2-1	2-0
Top-15	3-2	1-0
Established	—	2-0
Building	1-0	—
Unproven	3-0	2-0

Benoit Saint Denis — bouts

Paddy Pimblett — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Benoit Saint Denis

Paddy Pimblett

Denis — last 5

recent → old

Pimblett — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

4-1

Even

4-1

Current streak

W4

L1

Ranked opps

4 of 5

Even

4 of 5

Layoff

5 mo

Even

6 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Benoit Saint Denis

Paddy Pimblett

Title fights

SituationDenis Pimblett

All title fightschallenger or champ

—

0-10%

As challengerfor the belt

—

0-10%

Post-result bounce

SituationDenis Pimblett

After a loss

2-167%

—

After a win

7-188%

6-186%

Camp length

SituationDenis Pimblett

Short turnaround< 100 days

5-0100%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

1-150%

2-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

3-175%

4-180%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Benoit Saint Denis

Paddy Pimblett

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Denis17W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Pimblett17W–1L by finish · 71% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑26%·Denis

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑26%·Denis

A+

91st

100%

+41

C

50th

74%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

5%

33%

KO durability

↑10%·Pimblett

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑10%·Pimblett

D

41st

10%

+37

A

78th

0%

Submission defense

↑4%·Denis

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Denis

B

65th

0%

Even

C

57th

4%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Benoit Saint Denis	Paddy Pimblett
Wins
by KO / TKO	6(35%)	7(30%)
by submission	11(65%)	10(43%)
by decision	0(0%)	6(26%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(67%)	0(0%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(25%)
by decision	1(33%)	3(75%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Benoit Saint Denis

vs

Paddy Pimblett

42%

5 KO/TKO in 12 bouts

Knockout rate

25%

2 KO/TKO in 8 bouts

5

1.7 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

0.7 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

0.9 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Benoit Saint DenisFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Renato Moicano1y 9mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024 · R2 · 5:00
* between-rounds stoppage · not a clean KO
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Paddy PimblettFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Benoit Saint Denis

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Paddy Pimblett

95%

R3 vs R1 · 4 bouts reaching R3

Pimblett keeps 95% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Denis hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Denis

Pimblett ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Denis

Pimblettlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Denis

Pimblettattempts / min

Control time

Denis

Pimblett% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Benoit Saint Denis	8.4	4.2	3.3	0.70	53%	12
R1	Paddy Pimblett	7.0	6.0	4.0	0.22	8%	8
R2	Benoit Saint Denis	12.9	8.5	5.4	0.89	45%	9
R2	Paddy Pimblett	6.1	4.8	3.6	0.00	32%	5
R3	Benoit Saint Denis	7.4	4.0	5.0	1.00	11%	1
R3	Paddy Pimblett	7.8	5.2	2.8	0.39	37%	4
R4	Benoit Saint Denis	—	—	—	—	—	—
R4	Paddy Pimblett	7.6	7.0	6.4	0.20	0%	1
R5	Benoit Saint Denis	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Paddy Pimblett	6.6	4.2	5.8	0.60	16%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.