Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Cory Sandhagen

edge

Mario Bautista

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A

81st

2.2

+9

A+

90th

2.5

Defense

C

55th

56%

+13

D

42nd

54%

KO power

C

8 KO

0.3 KD

+12

D

3 KO

0.1 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Bautista ▸

Bautista has the bigger wrestling edge on Sandhagen

Takedowns landed

C

49th

1.1

+21

A

70th

1.9

Takedown accuracy

C

48th

35%

Even

C

55th

38%

Takedown defense

D

41st

56%

Even

D

40th

56%

Control time

C

58th

3.0 min

Even

B

64th

3.5 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Bautista ▸

Bautista is the bigger submission threat on Sandhagen

Submission attempts

C

49th

0.3

+27

A

76th

0.8

Sub win rate

B

64th

17%

3 subs

+16

A

80th

41%

7 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

4%

Even

D

41st

5%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Sandhagen

Sandhagen is more likely to finish Bautista

Finish rate

B

69th

64%

+25

C

44th

45%

KO durability

C

50th

0%

Even

C

42nd

7%

Submission defense

D

37th

6%

Even

D

37th

7%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Bautista ▸

Bautista pushes the higher work rate over the fight — Bautista's pace builds while Sandhagen's fades

Work rate / min — full fight

6.6

7.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.8

Even

6.8

Pace trend

-7%/rd

+28%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Bautista ▸

Bautista is in better recent form than Sandhagen

Win rate (career)

69%

79%

After a win

64%

80%

Last 5

60%

80%

Win streakL1W1

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Sandhagen

Sandhagen has faced the tougher schedule vs Bautista

Schedule strength

81%

46%

Win quality

63%

Even

63%

Ranked opponents

13

5

Title-holder bouts

2

0

Common opp (1)0-10-1

See full Schedule →

Activity

Bautista ▸

Bautista is fresher and more active than Sandhagen

Last bout

9mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

Bautista 2" reach · Sandhagen 5 cm · Switch-stance wrinkle

Cory SandhagenvsMario Bautista

34

Age

1y

younger

33

5'11"

180cm

Height

2"

taller

5'9"

175cm

70"

178cm

Reach

2"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Cory SandhagenMario Bautista

Percentile

Striking/min4.865.30

Accuracy%45%48%

Defense%56%54%

Takedowns/151.11.9

TD defense%56%55%

Submissions/150.20.8

Career rate as a percentile within the bantamweight (293 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 3m ago

Cory Sandhagen

Consensus

57%▲ 57

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Sandhagen

Kalshi58¢Sportsbook-13856%

Mario Bautista

Consensus

43%▲ 43

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Bautista

Kalshi43¢bestSportsbook+11844%

Sandhagen 57%43% Bautista

$665k vol · $625k OI$559k vol · $509k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Cory Sandhagen

18%+378

7%+1150

30%+188

Mario Bautista

6%+1400

9%+900

31%+175

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Cory Sandhagen

18%+378

7%+1150

30%+188

Mario Bautista

6%+1400

9%+900

31%+175

Total rounds

Line · 2.5

Over68%-275
Under32%+193

Goes the distance

Yes64%-215
No36%+162

UFC betting history

Career

SandhagenCory Sandhagen

BautistaMario Bautista

0-10%

As pick'em

—

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi60%57%2 pts

Sportsbook57%56%1 pt

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

SandhagenCory Sandhagen

Stat

BautistaMario Bautista

6

0

KO / TKO

1

Submission

4

1

4

Decision

6

1

14:43

Avg fight time

10:06

Cory Sandhagen’s splits

vs Bautista

vs Orthodox

8-467%

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

6-460%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Mario Bautista’s splits

vs Sandhagen

vs Orthodox

4-180%

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Longer reach

1-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Cory SandhagenvsMario Bautista

34

Age

1y

younger

33

5'11"

180cm

Height

2"

taller

5'9"

175cm

70"

178cm

Reach

2"

reach

72"

183cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

59th

Even

C

54th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Sandhagen’s offensevsBautista’s defense

Where Sandhagen attacks (green = high volume) vs where Bautista gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Sandhagen’s green zones meeting Bautista’s red zones are the openings.

Cory SandhagenOffense

Head65%86th742
Body16%61st178
Leg20%84th224

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Mario BautistaDefense

Head66%36th369
Body17%51st93
Leg18%36th101

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Sandhagen — by position

83%Standing

Standing83%949
Clinch3%34
Ground14%161

Bautista — absorbed by position

82%Standing

Standing82%463
Clinch14%77
Ground4%23

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Sandhagen’s offensevsBautista’s defense

Head

A+

86th

44.7

+49

D

36th

38.5

Body

B

61st

11.3

+11

C

51st

10.3

Leg

A

84th

13.3

+49

D

36th

10.3

Bautista’s offensevsSandhagen’s defense

Head

A+

85th

44.2

+33

C

52nd

32.1

Body

A+

89th

19.1

+44

C

45th

11.0

Leg

B

65th

9.2

+25

D

39th

9.7

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Cory Sandhagen	top 14% of division44.7	36%	around division average32.1	742
Head	Mario Bautista	top 15% of division44.2	39%	below division average38.5	455
Body	Cory Sandhagen	above division average11.3	74%	around division average11.0	178
Body	Mario Bautista	top 11% of division19.1	78%	around division average10.3	205
Leg	Cory Sandhagen	top 16% of division13.3	89%	below division average9.7	224
Leg	Mario Bautista	above division average9.2	83%	below division average10.3	90

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Cory Sandhagen

Mario Bautista

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

50th

+10

B

59th

Bautista has the grappling edge (+10).

Takedowns

C

51st

1.1

+17

B

68th

1.9

Takedown accuracy

C

48th

35%

18/52

Even

C

55th

38%

18/47

Takedown defense

D

41st

56%

53/94

Even

D

40th

56%

29/52

Submission threat

C

51st

0.3

+23

A

74th

0.8

Control time

C

57th

3.0 min

Even

B

61st

3.5 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Cory Sandhagen	Mario Bautista
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.118	1.918
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	35%18 / 52	38%18 / 47
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	56%53 / 94	56%29 / 52
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.34	0.88
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.0 min47:25	3.5 min32:36
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.2 min35:13	2.6 min24:08

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Cory Sandhagen

Mario Bautista

Record vs common opponents

Even

0-1

0-1

0-1

0-1

Both lost

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

opp ranked #2

L

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Cory Sandhagen

82

Schedule Score

Mario Bautista

52

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

235 min

16 bouts

Octagon time

94 min

more

141 min

14 bouts

Schedule strength

81%

46%

Win quality

63%

Even

63%

Ranked opponents

13

5

Title-holder bouts

2

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Cory Sandhagen	Mario Bautista
Champion	0-4	—
Top-5	7-1	1-2
Top-15	2-0	3-0
Cross-div ranked	1-0	—
Established	—	2-0
Building	—	2-0
Unproven	1-0	3-1

Cory Sandhagen — bouts

Mario Bautista — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Cory Sandhagen

Mario Bautista

Sandhagen — last 5

recent → old

Bautista — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

4-1

Current streak

L1

W1

Ranked opps

4 of 5

Even

4 of 5

Layoff

9 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Cory Sandhagen

Mario Bautista

Post-result bounce

SituationSandhagen Bautista

After a loss

3-175%

3-0100%

After a win

7-464%

8-280%

Camp length

SituationSandhagen Bautista

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-150%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

5-271%

6-186%

Long layoff> 180 days

4-267%

5-183%

Title fights

SituationSandhagen Bautista

All title fightschallenger or champ

0-20%

—

As challengerfor the belt

0-20%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Cory Sandhagen

Mario Bautista

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Sandhagen11W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Bautista10W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

Even

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

Even

D

41st

61%

Even

D

39th

59%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

50%

40%

KO durability

↑5%·Sandhagen

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑5%·Sandhagen

B

65th

0%

+13

C

53rd

5%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

C

51st

4%

Even

C

47th

5%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Cory Sandhagen	Mario Bautista
Wins
by KO / TKO	8(44%)	3(18%)
by submission	3(17%)	7(41%)
by decision	7(39%)	7(41%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	1(33%)
by submission	1(17%)	1(33%)
by decision	5(83%)	1(33%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Cory Sandhagen

vs

Mario Bautista

38%

6 KO/TKO in 16 bouts

Knockout rate

7%

1 KO/TKO in 14 bouts

4

0.5 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

0.4 / 100 head

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

0.5 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Cory SandhagenFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Aljamain Sterling6y 1mo ago
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 6, 2020 · R1 · 1:28

Mario BautistaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Trevin Jones5y 4mo ago
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 6, 2021 · R2 · 0:47
Last time submitted
vs Cory Sandhagen7y 5mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019 · R1 · 3:31

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Cory Sandhagen

101%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Mario Bautista

189%

R3 vs R1 · 7 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Bautista: Bautista builds (+28% per round through round 3) while Sandhagen fades (-6% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Sandhagen sustains 101% of round-1 output by round 3, Bautista 189%.

Sandhagen ▼ FADES

Bautista ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Sandhagen

Bautistalanded / min

Takedown attempts

Sandhagen

Bautistaattempts / min

Control time

Sandhagen

Bautista% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Cory Sandhagen	7.0	5.5	2.6	0.21	22%	16
R1	Mario Bautista	5.2	3.6	3.2	0.20	23%	14
R2	Cory Sandhagen	6.5	4.9	3.4	0.18	27%	13
R2	Mario Bautista	8.4	6.2	5.1	0.47	21%	10
R3	Cory Sandhagen	6.2	5.1	4.4	0.22	11%	9
R3	Mario Bautista	9.5	7.3	4.0	0.40	25%	7
R4	Cory Sandhagen	5.7	4.1	3.7	0.29	19%	7
R4	Mario Bautista	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Cory Sandhagen	5.2	3.7	4.0	0.23	18%	6
R5	Mario Bautista	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.