Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Conor McGregor

edge

Max Holloway

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A+

93rd

2.6

Even

A+

97th

3.3

Defense

D

36th

54%

+9

C

45th

58%

KO power

A

19 KO

0.9 KD

+35

C

12 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Holloway's takedown defense neutralizes McGregor — no real edge either way

Takedowns landed

D

32nd

0.7

+15

F

17th

0.2

Takedown accuracy

B

67th

56%

Even

B

67th

53%

Takedown defense

C

56th

67%

+26

A

82nd

81%

Control time

D

33rd

1.8 min

+18

F

15th

0.8 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Holloway ▸

Holloway is the bigger submission threat on McGregor

Submission attempts

D

40th

0.1

Even

C

47th

0.3

Sub win rate

C

53rd

5%

1 sub

Even

C

54th

7%

2 subs

Submission defense

D

30th

14%

+12

C

42nd

3%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both finishing threats

Finish rate

B

67th

80%

+15

C

52nd

57%

KO durability

C

56th

7%

+10

B

66th

3%

Submission defense

D

30th

14%

+12

C

42nd

3%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Holloway ▸

Holloway pushes the higher work rate over five rounds

Work rate / min — full fight

6.2

7.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.9

Even

6.1

Pace trend

+4%/rd

+11%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Holloway ▸

Holloway is in better recent form than McGregor

Win rate (career)

71%

Even

72%

After a win

70%

74%

Last 5

40%

60%

Win streakL2L1

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

84%

Even

86%

Win quality

75%

68%

Ranked opponents

10

21

Title-holder bouts

3

4

Common opps (2)2-23-2

See full Schedule →

Activity

Holloway ▸

Holloway is fresher and more active than McGregor

Last bout

60mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

0

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

0

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Even

McGregor 5" reach · Holloway 5 cm · Open-stance matchup

Conor McGregorvsMax Holloway

37

Age

3y

younger

34

5'9"

175cm

Height

2"

taller

5'11"

180cm

74"

188cm

Reach

5"

reach

69"

175cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Conor McGregorMax Holloway

Percentile

Striking/min5.326.91

Accuracy%49%48%

Defense%54%58%

Takedowns/150.70.2

TD defense%66%81%

Submissions/150.10.3

Career rate as a percentile within the welterweight (443 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 6m ago

Conor McGregor

Consensus

28%▼ 1

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet McGregor

Kalshi30¢Sportsbook+27026%best

Max Holloway

Consensus

72%flat

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Holloway

Kalshi71¢bestSportsbook-33074%

McGregor 28%72% Holloway

$56.4M vol · $50.8M OI$7.2M vol · $6.4M OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Conor McGregor

20%+335

3%+2700

6%+1300

Max Holloway

50%-139

7%+1200

14%+513

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Conor McGregor

20%+335

3%+2700

6%+1300

Max Holloway

50%-139

7%+1200

14%+513

Total rounds

Line · 3.5

Over37%+155
Under63%-210

Goes the distance

Yes21%+350
No79%-539

UFC betting history

Career

McGregorConor McGregor

HollowayMax Holloway

1-0100%

As pick'em

2-0100%

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi71%71%

Sportsbook74%74%

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

McGregorConor McGregor

Stat

HollowayMax Holloway

8

2

KO / TKO

11

1

0

2

Submission

2

1

2

0

Decision

10

7

8:02

Avg fight time

16:39

Conor McGregor’s splits

vs Holloway

vs Southpaw

3-350%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Longer reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Max Holloway’s splits

vs McGregor

vs Orthodox

19-676%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Shorter reach

4-180%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Conor McGregorvsMax Holloway

37

Age

3y

younger

34

5'9"

175cm

Height

2"

taller

5'11"

180cm

74"

188cm

Reach

5"

reach

69"

175cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

69th

Even

B

62nd

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

McGregor’s offensevsHolloway’s defense

Where McGregor attacks (green = high volume) vs where Holloway gets hit (red = vulnerable) — McGregor’s green zones meeting Holloway’s red zones are the openings.

Conor McGregorOffense

Head70%90th419
Body17%75th102
Leg13%69th78

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Max HollowayDefense

Head63%22nd1,559
Body14%48th346
Leg22%9th552

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

McGregor — by position

77%Standing

Standing77%461
Clinch10%61
Ground13%77

Holloway — absorbed by position

92%Standing

Standing92%2,264
Clinch5%126
Ground3%67

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

McGregor’s offensevsHolloway’s defense

Head

A+

90th

48.2

+67

F

22nd

43.1

Body

A

75th

12.5

+27

C

48th

9.8

Leg

B

69th

9.8

+60

F

9th

15.0

Holloway’s offensevsMcGregor’s defense

Head

A+

96th

64.1

+76

F

21st

44.4

Body

A+

97th

24.1

+62

D

35th

11.4

Leg

A

72nd

11.1

+40

D

32nd

9.1

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Conor McGregor	top 10% of division48.2	44%	well below average44.4	419
Head	Max Holloway	elite — top of division64.1	40%	well below average43.1	2,381
Body	Conor McGregor	top 25% of division12.5	65%	below division average11.4	102
Body	Max Holloway	elite — top of division24.1	74%	around division average9.8	899
Leg	Conor McGregor	above division average9.8	79%	below division average9.1	78
Leg	Max Holloway	top 28% of division11.1	77%	bottom of the division15.0	401

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Conor McGregor

Max Holloway

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

51st

Even

C

47th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

42nd

0.7

+22

F

21st

0.2

Takedown accuracy

B

67th

56%

5/9

Even

B

67th

53%

8/15

Takedown defense

C

56th

67%

22/33

+26

A

82nd

81%

136/167

Submission threat

C

47th

0.1

Even

C

48th

0.3

Control time

D

42nd

1.8 min

+24

F

18th

0.8 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Conor McGregor	Max Holloway
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.75	0.28
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	56%5 / 9	53%8 / 15
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	67%22 / 33	81%136 / 167
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.11	0.310
Control time / 15 (min)career total	1.8 min13:51	0.8 min29:08
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	4.1 min30:57	1.7 min61:20

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Conor McGregor

89

Schedule Score

Max Holloway

91

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

113 min

14 bouts

Octagon time

420 min

more

533 min

32 bouts

Schedule strength

84%

86%

Win quality

75%

68%

Ranked opponents

10

21

Title-holder bouts

3

4

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Conor McGregor	Max Holloway
Champion	3-1	3-6
Top-5	4-2	11-2
Top-15	2-1	2-1
Established	—	1-0
Building	1-0	1-0
Unproven	—	5-0

Conor McGregor — bouts

Max Holloway — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Conor McGregor

Max Holloway

McGregor — last 5

recent → old

Holloway — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

2-3

3-2

Current streak

L2

L1

Ranked opps

5 of 5

Even

5 of 5

Layoff

5.0 yr

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Conor McGregor

Max Holloway

Title fights

SituationMcGregor Holloway

All title fightschallenger or champ

3-175%

5-550%

As championbelt defenses

1-150%

4-180%

As challengerfor the belt

2-0100%

1-420%

Camp length

SituationMcGregor Holloway

Short turnaround< 100 days

2-167%

3-175%

Typical camp100–180 days

5-183%

12-380%

Long layoff> 180 days

2-250%

8-467%

Post-result bounce

SituationMcGregor Holloway

After a loss

2-167%

6-275%

After a win

7-370%

17-674%

Rematches

SituationMcGregor Holloway

All rematchesany repeat opponent

1-233%

2-433%

Revenge boutslost the first

1-0100%

1-325%

Encore boutswon the first

0-20%

1-150%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Conor McGregor

Max Holloway

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

McGregor20W–6L by finish · 74% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Holloway14W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑39%·McGregor

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑39%·McGregor

A

80th

91%

+63

F

17th

52%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

7%

56%

KO durability

↑4%·Holloway

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑4%·Holloway

B

63rd

7%

+18

A

81st

3%

Submission defense

↑11%·Holloway

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑11%·Holloway

F

17th

14%

+44

B

61st

3%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Conor McGregor	Max Holloway
Wins
by KO / TKO	19(86%)	12(44%)
by submission	1(5%)	2(7%)
by decision	2(9%)	13(48%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(33%)	1(11%)
by submission	4(67%)	1(11%)
by decision	0(0%)	7(78%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Conor McGregor

vs

Max Holloway

57%

8 KO/TKO in 14 bouts

Knockout rate

34%

11 KO/TKO in 32 bouts

13

3.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

12

0.5 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

1

0.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

0.1 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Conor McGregorFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Dustin Poirier5 years ago
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021 · R1 · 5:00
* between-rounds stoppage · not a clean KO
Last time submitted
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov7y 9mo ago
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 6, 2018 · R4 · 3:03

Max HollowayFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Ilia Topuria1y 8mo ago
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024 · R3 · 1:34
Last time submitted
vs Dustin Poirier14y 5mo ago
UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit · Feb 4, 2012 · R1 · 3:23

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Conor McGregor

141%

R3 vs R1 · 3 bouts reaching R3

Max Holloway

158%

R3 vs R1 · 27 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Holloway leans harder: Holloway builds (+11% per round through round 5), McGregor builds (+4% per round through round 4). Within fights that reached round 3, McGregor lifts to 141% of round-1 output by round 3, Holloway 158%.

McGregor ▲ BUILDS

Holloway ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

McGregor

Hollowaylanded / min

Takedown attempts

McGregor

Hollowayattempts / min

Control time

McGregor

Holloway% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Conor McGregor	6.0	5.5	3.8	0.04	10%	14
R1	Max Holloway	5.3	5.1	4.3	0.01	3%	32
R2	Conor McGregor	5.8	5.2	6.1	0.09	9%	8
R2	Max Holloway	6.8	6.6	4.3	0.01	5%	29
R3	Conor McGregor	6.6	4.7	4.4	0.20	32%	3
R3	Max Holloway	8.3	7.7	4.5	0.05	10%	27
R4	Conor McGregor	6.6	6.5	5.3	0.00	2%	2
R4	Max Holloway	10.3	9.9	5.6	0.07	5%	12
R5	Conor McGregor	5.7	4.8	3.8	0.20	9%	1
R5	Max Holloway	7.8	7.5	5.5	0.04	5%	11

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.