Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Jan Blachowicz

edge

Bogdan Guskov

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A

72nd

1.8

+16

A+

88th

2.5

Defense

C

56th

52%

+26

D

30th

44%

KO power

C

9 KO

0.3 KD

+32

A

15 KO

0.7 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Not enough data

Takedowns landed

C

53rd

1.0

+42

F

12th

0.0

Takedown accuracy49%—

Takedown defense

69%

57%

Control time

C

43rd

2.0 min

Even

C

46th

2.1 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

B

65th

0.4

+13

A

78th

0.7

Sub win rate

B

69th

31%

9 subs

+11

C

58th

17%

3 subs

Submission defense

C

47th

5%

Even

C

46th

5%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Guskov ▸

Guskov is more likely to finish Blachowicz

Finish rate

D

37th

58%

+21

C

58th

100%

KO durability

A

73rd

5%

Even

B

68th

0%

Submission defense

C

45th

5%

+16

D

30th

20%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Guskov ▸

Guskov pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

4.7

6.4

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.4

6.4

Pace trend+11%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Guskov ▸

Guskov is in better recent form than Blachowicz

Win rate (career)

60%

80%

After a win

58%

100%

Last 5

33%

100%

Win streak——

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Blachowicz

Blachowicz has faced the tougher schedule vs Guskov

Schedule strength

78%

60%

Win quality

53%

64%

Ranked opponents

14

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opp (1)1-01-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Guskov ▸

Guskov has fought more often lately than Blachowicz

Last bout

7mo

Even

7mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Guskov ▸

Blachowicz 2" reach · Guskov 3 cm · Guskov 10y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Jan BlachowiczvsBogdan Guskov

43

Age

10y

younger

33

6'2"

188cm

Height

1"

taller

6'3"

191cm

78"

198cm

Reach

2"

reach

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Jan BlachowiczBogdan Guskov

Percentile

Striking/min3.554.57

Accuracy%50%55%

Defense%52%44%

Takedowns/151.00.0

TD defense%69%57%

Submissions/150.40.7

Career rate as a percentile within the light heavyweight (227 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

BlachowiczJan Blachowicz

GuskovBogdan Guskov

0-30%

As pick'em

—

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

BlachowiczJan Blachowicz

Stat

GuskovBogdan Guskov

5

1

KO / TKO

3

0

2

1

Submission

1

5

6

Decision

0

12:36

Avg fight time

5:42

Jan Blachowicz’s splits

vs Guskov

vs Southpaw

2-0100%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Longer reach

3-443%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Bogdan Guskov’s splits

vs Blachowicz

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-10%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Jan BlachowiczvsBogdan Guskov

43

Age

10y

younger

33

6'2"

188cm

Height

1"

taller

6'3"

191cm

78"

198cm

Reach

2"

reach

76"

193cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

57th

Even

B

64th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Blachowicz’s offensevsGuskov’s defense

Where Blachowicz attacks (green = high volume) vs where Guskov gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Blachowicz’s green zones meeting Guskov’s red zones are the openings.

Jan BlachowiczOffense

Head62%59th638
Body21%64th213
Leg18%61st186

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Bogdan GuskovDefense

Head65%37th116
Body12%53rd22
Leg22%29th40

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Blachowicz — by position

78%Standing

Standing78%812
Clinch10%107
Ground11%118

Guskov — absorbed by position

80%Standing

Standing80%143
Clinch4%8
Ground15%27

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Blachowicz’s offensevsGuskov’s defense

Head

B

59th

32.7

+22

D

37th

38.1

Body

B

64th

10.8

+10

C

53rd

9.0

Leg

B

61st

9.4

+31

D

29th

11.2

Guskov’s offensevsBlachowicz’s defense

Head

A

82nd

46.0

+20

B

62nd

28.9

Body

D

34th

6.6

+27

B

61st

8.2

Leg

C

49th

6.8

+19

D

30th

11.1

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Jan Blachowicz	above division average32.7	42%	above division average28.9	638
Head	Bogdan Guskov	top 18% of division46.0	53%	below division average38.1	175
Body	Jan Blachowicz	above division average10.8	67%	above division average8.2	213
Body	Bogdan Guskov	below division average6.6	90%	around division average9.0	9
Leg	Jan Blachowicz	above division average9.4	84%	below division average11.1	186
Leg	Bogdan Guskov	around division average6.8	88%	well below average11.2	15

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

60th

Even

C

57th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

C

57th

1.0

+11

C

46th

0.0

Takedown accuracy

A

72nd

49%

19/39

—

Takedown defense

B

59th

69%

41/59

57%

4/7

Submission threat

B

66th

0.4

Even

A

74th

0.7

Control time

C

45th

2.0 min

Even

C

51st

2.1 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Jan Blachowicz	Bogdan Guskov
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	1.019	0.00
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	49%19 / 39	—0 / 0
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	69%41 / 59	57%4 / 7
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.47	0.72
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.0 min39:08	2.1 min6:14
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	4.0 min78:07	3.4 min9:44

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

The single UFC opponent both fighters have faced. Reads as a directional signal, not a verdict.

Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

Record vs common opponents

Even

1-0

1-0

1-0

1-0

Both won

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Jan Blachowicz

75

Schedule Score

Bogdan Guskov

61

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

292 min

22 bouts

Octagon time

248 min

more

44 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

78%

60%

Win quality

53%

64%

Ranked opponents

14

4

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Jan Blachowicz	Bogdan Guskov
Champion	0-3-1	0-0-1
Top-5	6-4	1-1
Top-15	1-1-1	1-0
Cross-div champ	2-0	—
Cross-div ranked	1-0	—
Building	1-0	1-0
Unproven	1-0	1-0

Jan Blachowicz — bouts

Bogdan Guskov — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

Blachowicz — last 5

recent → old

Guskov — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

1-2-2

4-0-1

Current streak

—

Even

—

Ranked opps

4 of 5

3 of 5

Layoff

7 mo

Even

7 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

Title fights

SituationBlachowicz Guskov

All title fightschallenger or champ

2-167%

—

As championbelt defenses

1-150%

—

As challengerfor the belt

1-0100%

—

Post-result bounce

SituationBlachowicz Guskov

After a loss

4-357%

1-0100%

After a win

7-464%

3-0100%

Camp length

SituationBlachowicz Guskov

Short turnaround< 100 days

3-0100%

1-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

3-350%

1-0100%

Long layoff> 180 days

5-550%

2-0100%

Rematches

SituationBlachowicz Guskov

All rematchesany repeat opponent

2-0100%

—

Revenge boutslost the first

2-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Blachowicz18W–4L by finish

R1

R2

R3

Guskov18W–2L by finish · 71% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑38%·Guskov

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑38%·Guskov

F

18th

62%

+64

A

83rd

100%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

45%

5%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

A

77th

5%

Even

A

75th

5%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

C

56th

5%

Even

C

55th

5%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Jan Blachowicz	Bogdan Guskov
Wins
by KO / TKO	9(31%)	15(83%)
by submission	9(31%)	3(17%)
by decision	11(38%)	0(0%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	2(18%)	1(33%)
by submission	2(18%)	1(33%)
by decision	7(64%)	1(33%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Jan Blachowicz

vs

Bogdan Guskov

23%

5 KO/TKO in 22 bouts

Knockout rate

50%

3 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

7

1.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

4

2.3 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

0.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

2

1.7 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Jan BlachowiczFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Thiago Santos7y 4mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019 · R3 · 0:39
Last time submitted
vs Glover Teixeira4y 8mo ago
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021 · R2 · 3:02

Bogdan GuskovFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
vs Volkan Oezdemir2y 10mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 2, 2023 · R1 · 3:46

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Jan Blachowicz

119%

R3 vs R1 · 15 bouts reaching R3

Bogdan Guskov

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Blachowicz lifts to 119% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Guskov hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Blachowicz ▲ BUILDS

GuskovOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Blachowicz

Guskovlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Blachowicz

Guskovattempts / min

Control time

Blachowicz

Guskov% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Jan Blachowicz	4.1	3.4	2.4	0.08	13%	22
R1	Bogdan Guskov	3.0	2.9	3.7	0.00	4%	6
R2	Jan Blachowicz	4.7	3.6	3.6	0.18	12%	20
R2	Bogdan Guskov	9.8	8.0	2.7	0.00	44%	3
R3	Jan Blachowicz	5.2	4.2	4.3	0.18	13%	15
R3	Bogdan Guskov	5.4	5.4	9.6	0.00	0%	1
R4	Jan Blachowicz	3.5	2.1	1.5	0.13	23%	3
R4	Bogdan Guskov	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Jan Blachowicz	3.7	2.9	2.1	0.07	17%	3
R5	Bogdan Guskov	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.