Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura — Heavyweight at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Rounds
- 3 × 5 min
- Venue
- Belgrade Arena · Belgrade, Serbia
Matchup read
Where each fighter holds an advantage in this matchup — offense weighed against the opponent's defense. Tap any row to see the numbers behind it. Descriptive — not a prediction.
StrikingEven
Even striking exchange
GrapplingEven
Wrestling stays neutral
SubmissionSlight edge · Rakic
Rakic is the bigger submission threat — reduced by the defense of Tybura
FinishingEven
PaceSlight edge · Rakic
Tale of the tapeClear edge · Rakic
Rakic 5 cm · Rakic 6y younger
Each edge weighs one fighter’s offense against the other’s defense in this matchup, not each fighter vs the division in isolation — so a strong defense reduces (not erases) the opposing threat. Tap a row for the percentiles behind it. Thin samples are dimmed; too little data reads “not enough data.”
Markets
Record when favored vs. an underdog, across each fighter’s priced UFC bouts.
Career splits
Tale of the Tape
The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.
Recent form
Last five pro bouts (non-UFC fights dashed + tagged), current trajectory, and the level of opposition going into this matchup.
Common opponents
UFC opponents both fighters have faced — a direct read on relative quality controlling for matchmaking.
These two fighters haven’t crossed paths in the UFC cage with any of the same opponents.
Schedule Score
Who they've faced × what they've done. Composite + components compared head-to-head, percentile-ranked against every UFC fighter w/ ≥3 resolved bouts.
Per-tier records + bout-by-bout
| Tier | Aleksandar Rakic | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Top-5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Top-15 | 2-2 | 9-4 |
| Cross-div ranked | 1-0 | — |
| Building | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Unproven | — | 3-3 |
- L vs Azamat Murzakanov#1068Oct 25, 2025 · Top-15
- L vs Magomed Ankalaev#287Oct 26, 2024 · Top-5
- L vs Jiri Prochazka#287Apr 13, 2024 · Top-5
- L vs Jan Blachowicz#190May 14, 2022 · Top-5
- W vs Thiago Santos#287Mar 6, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Anthony Smith#675Aug 29, 2020 · Top-15
- L vs Volkan Oezdemir#872Dec 21, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Jimi Manuwa#1167Jun 1, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Devin Clark18Dec 8, 2018 · Building
- W vs Justin Ledet45Jul 22, 2018 · Cross-div ranked
- W vs Francimar Barroso18Sep 2, 2017 · Building
- L vs Tyrell Fortune8Mar 28, 2026 · Unproven
- L vs Ante Delija8Sep 6, 2025 · Unproven
- W vs Mick Parkin#1363Mar 22, 2025 · Top-15
- W vs Jhonata Diniz8Nov 16, 2024 · Unproven
- L vs Serghei Spivac#970Aug 10, 2024 · Top-15
- W vs Tai Tuivasa#970Mar 16, 2024 · Top-15
- L vs Tom Aspinall#578Jul 22, 2023 · Top-5
- W vs Blagoy Ivanov#1560Feb 4, 2023 · Top-15
- W vs Alexandr Romanov#1265Aug 20, 2022 · Top-15
- L vs Alexander Volkov#578Oct 30, 2021 · Top-5
- W vs Walt Harris#872Jun 5, 2021 · Top-15
- W vs Greg Hardy18Dec 19, 2020 · Building
- W vs Ben Rothwell#578Oct 10, 2020 · Top-5
- W vs Maxim Grishin8Jul 11, 2020 · Unproven
- W vs Serghei Spivac#1560Feb 29, 2020 · Top-15
- L vs Augusto Sakai#1560Sep 14, 2019 · Top-15
- L vs Shamil Abdurakhimov#1363Apr 20, 2019 · Top-15
- W vs Stefan Struve#1363Jul 22, 2018 · Top-15
- L vs Derrick Lewis#773Feb 18, 2018 · Top-15
- L vs Fabricio Werdum#287Nov 18, 2017 · Top-5
- W vs Andrei Arlovski#872Jun 17, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Luis Henrique#1560Mar 4, 2017 · Top-15
- W vs Viktor Pesta8Aug 6, 2016 · Unproven
- L vs Timothy Johnson8Apr 10, 2016 · Unproven
Schedule Score combines schedule strength (65%) with quality wins (35%). For fighters with limited UFC experience the headline is held toward a rookie baseline — a thin UFC résumé hasn’t yet proven a strong schedule — so debut and low-sample fighters read lower than established names. Per-bout opponent quality is scored on rank-at-time-of-fight (champion 100, ranks 1–5 = 90→78, ranks 6–15 = 75→60), with cross-division and P4P signals layered on, and falls back to opponent UFC record-at-time for unranked opponents. UFC ranking data is sparse before December 2018, so legacy-era fighters score from record-at-time when ranks are missing.
Striking matchup
Where each fighter lands their strikes — and where each one gets hit — across head, body, and leg. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time.
Full breakdown — all zones, both views
| Zone | Fighter | Landed / 15 | Accuracy | Absorbed / 15 | Career landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Head | Aleksandar Rakic | 32.4above division average | 38% | 21.7top 25% of division | 254 |
| Head | Marcin Tybura | 34.7above division average | 40% | 34.7below division average | 611 |
| Body | Aleksandar Rakic | 9.70above division average | 76% | 9.57below division average | 76 |
| Body | Marcin Tybura | 11.8top 26% of division | 71% | 8.74around division average | 208 |
| Leg | Aleksandar Rakic | 19.8elite — top of division | 76% | 11.6well below average | 155 |
| Leg | Marcin Tybura | 6.98above division average | 88% | 5.45above division average | 123 |
Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.
Grappling matchup
Wrestling output, ground threat, and control. Per 15 minutes of UFC fight time, with takedown defense as a percentage of opponent attempts stopped.
Full breakdown — career grappling totals
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Marcin Tybura | Career totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Takedowns landed / 15 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 / 23 |
| Takedown accuracy | 22% | 33% | 5/23 · 23/69 |
| Takedown defense | 86% | 71% | stopped 18/21 · 29/41 |
| Submission attempts / 15 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 / 2 |
| Control time / 15 (min) | 4.8 min | 4.3 min | 37:16 · 75:30 |
| Time controlled BY opponent / 15 (min) | 0.7 min | 2.3 min | 5:45 · 40:59 |
All rates computed from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Takedown defense = opponent attempts stopped ÷ opponent total attempts. Control time figures are minutes the fighter spent in a dominant position per 15 minutes of fight time.
Finishing & durability
How often each fighter ends fights early — and how often they get put away. Outcomes view, not per-minute output.
When their fights end
every UFC finish on the fight clockFinish & durability rates
UFC bouts only
Full method breakdown
| Outcome | Aleksandar Rakic | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | ||
| by KO / TKO | 2(33%) | 5(36%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 1(7%) |
| by decision | 4(67%) | 8(57%) |
| Losses | ||
| by KO / TKO | 2(40%) | 5(50%) |
| by submission | 0(0%) | 1(10%) |
| by decision | 2(40%) | 4(40%) |
| Pace | ||
| Avg finish time (own wins) | R1 2:26 | R2 2:54 |
| Finishes used in avg | 2 | 6 |
Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.
KO history
UFC fights only — knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head, then when the last finish landed, and on whom.
- Last time KO'dvs Azamat Murzakanov7 months agoUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Oct 25, 2025 · R1 · 3:11
- Last time submittedNever submitted in the UFC
- Last time KO'dvs Ante Delija8 months agoUFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 6, 2025 · R1 · 2:03
- Last time submittedvs Serghei Spivac1y 9mo agoUFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024 · R1 · 1:44
Pace & fade
How each fighter's work rate holds up as a fight wears on — round-by-round output (striking, takedown attempts, and control time combined), and whether they fade. The fade % compares round-3 output to round 1 over bouts that reached the third round.
Cardio edge to Tybura: Tybura actually builds to 145% of round-1 work rate through round 3, while Rakic actually builds to 115% — a 30-point gap in late-round pace.
Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.
Full per-round breakdown — both fighters
What drives the pace · per round
The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.
| Round | Fighter | Output / min | Sig landed / min | Sig absorbed / min | TD att / min | Control | Bouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aleksandar Rakic | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.21 | 21% | 11 |
| R1 | Marcin Tybura | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.19 | 27% | 24 |
| R2 | Aleksandar Rakic | 6.2 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 0.10 | 38% | 8 |
| R2 | Marcin Tybura | 5.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 0.27 | 26% | 18 |
| R3 | Aleksandar Rakic | 6.0 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.29 | 40% | 7 |
| R3 | Marcin Tybura | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.38 | 39% | 14 |
| R4 | Aleksandar Rakic | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R4 | Marcin Tybura | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 0.20 | 2% | 1 |
| R5 | Aleksandar Rakic | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R5 | Marcin Tybura | 8.4 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 0.00 | 0% | 1 |
Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.
Activity & layoff
The recency dimension Tale of the Tape doesn't carry. How active each fighter has been, and how that compares to active peers in their division.
- Aleksandar has 5 months more layoff