JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin Stats & Odds — Noche UFC

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

JJ Aldrich

edge

Regina Tarin

Striking

Tarin ▸

Tarin out-strikes Aldrich (thin sample)

Effective offense

B

66th

1.8

+28

A+

95th

3.6

Defense

C

57th

61%

+23

D

34th

57%

KO power

F

3 KO

0.0 KD

+20

D

4 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Wrestling stays neutral (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

D

27th

0.7

+17

C

44th

1.0

Takedown accuracy

26%

33%

Takedown defense

68%

50%

Control time

C

48th

2.5 min

+33

F

15th

1.0 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Tarin ▸

Tarin is the bigger submission threat on Aldrich (thin sample)

Submission attempts

F

16th

0.0

Even

F

16th

0.0

Sub win rate

C

46th

0%

0 subs

+16

B

62nd

25%

2 subs

Submission defense

D

37th

9%

+12

C

49th

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Tarin ▸

Tarin is more likely to finish Aldrich (thin sample)

Finish rate

F

23rd

9%

+18

D

41st

0%

KO durability

D

35th

6%

Even

D

32nd

0%

Submission defense

C

43rd

6%

Even

D

38th

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Tarin ▸

Tarin pushes the higher work rate over the fight (thin sample)

Work rate / min — full fight

5.2

6.9

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

4.9

6.9

Pace trend+13%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Tarin ▸

Tarin is in better recent form than Aldrich (thin sample)

Win rate (career)

65%

100%

After a win60%—

Last 5

80%

100%

Win streakW2W5

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Aldrich

Aldrich has faced the tougher schedule vs Tarin (thin sample)

Schedule strength

41%

8%

Win quality

52%

57%

Ranked opponents

6

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

3mo

5mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

1

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Tarin ▸

Aldrich 2" reach · Tarin 5 cm · Tarin 13y younger · Closed-stance matchup

JJ AldrichvsRegina Tarin

34

Age

13y

younger

21

5'5"

165cm

Height

2"

taller

5'7"

170cm

68"

171cm

Reach

2"

reach

66"

168cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

JJ AldrichRegina Tarin

Percentile

Striking/min3.927.60

Accuracy%46%47%

Defense%61%57%

Takedowns/150.71.0

TD defense%67%50%

Submissions/150.00.0

Career rate as a percentile within the women's flyweight (73 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Pre-UFC opposition

non-UFC slate for Regina Tarin, from opponents’ full pro records

Regina Tarin

Moderate

Opponents' combined record

23-23

.500 win rate

Winning-record opponents

3 of 7

carried winning pro records

Pro bouts faced

7

all opponents have records on file

A descriptive read of the non-UFC slate from opponents’ full career pro records — not a UFC-grade Schedule Score.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

AldrichJJ Aldrich

TarinRegina Tarin

0-20%

As pick'em

—

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

AldrichJJ Aldrich

Stat

TarinRegina Tarin

1

KO / TKO

0

—

0

1

Submission

0

—

10

4

Decision

1

—

13:51

Avg fight time

15:00

JJ Aldrich’s splits

vs Tarin

vs Orthodox

11-473%

vs Switch

0-10%

vs Longer reach

2-167%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Regina Tarin’s splits

vs Aldrich

vs Orthodox

1-0100%

vs Southpaw

0-0no data

vs Switch

0-0no data

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

JJ AldrichvsRegina Tarin

34

Age

13y

younger

21

5'5"

165cm

Height

2"

taller

5'7"

170cm

68"

171cm

Reach

2"

reach

66"

168cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

47th

+8

C

55th

Tarin has the striking edge (+8).

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Aldrich’s offensevsTarin’s defense

Head

A

75th

45.7

+54

F

21st

49.1

Body

F

22nd

8.5

+16

D

39th

15.1

Leg

F

16th

4.7

+31

C

47th

8.2

Tarin’s offensevsAldrich’s defense

Head

A

76th

46.2

+16

B

60th

34.5

Body

A

80th

18.7

+52

D

28th

16.8

Leg

C

51st

8.3

+33

F

18th

13.2

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	JJ Aldrich	top 25% of division45.7	42%	above division average34.5	746
Head	Regina Tarin	top 24% of division46.2	41%	well below average49.1	76
Body	JJ Aldrich	well below average8.5	75%	well below average16.8	118
Body	Regina Tarin	top 20% of division18.7	71%	below division average15.1	34
Leg	JJ Aldrich	well below average4.7	79%	well below average13.2	58
Leg	Regina Tarin	around division average8.3	67%	around division average8.2	4

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

JJ Aldrich

Regina Tarin

Overall Grappling

Grappling

D

40th

+11

C

50th

Tarin has the grappling edge (+11).

Takedowns

D

34th

0.7

+19

C

53rd

1.0

Takedown accuracy

F

24th

26%

11/43

33%

1/3

Takedown defense

C

57th

68%

27/40

50%

1/2

Submission threat

D

33rd

0.0

+16

C

49th

0.0

Control time

C

49th

2.5 min

Even

C

48th

1.0 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	JJ Aldrich	Regina Tarin
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.711	1.01
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	26%11 / 43	33%1 / 3
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	68%27 / 40	50%1 / 2
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	2.5 min39:00	1.0 min1:02
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.1 min16:30	1.3 min1:17

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

JJ Aldrich

45

Schedule Score

Regina Tarin

28

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

235 min

17 bouts

Octagon time

220 min

more

15 min

1 bout

Schedule strength

41%

8%

Win quality

52%

57%

Ranked opponents

6

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	JJ Aldrich	Regina Tarin
Top-5	1-2	—
Ranked 6–15	4-2	—
Established	1-1	—
Building	2-1	—
Unproven	3-0	1-0

JJ Aldrich — bouts

Regina Tarin — bouts

W vs Ernesta Kareckaite8
Feb 28, 2026 · Unproven

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

JJ Aldrich

Regina Tarin

Aldrich — last 5

recent → old

Tarin — last 5

recent → old

WTNX

KO R1

Jimenez

Nov ’25

WCOMBATE

KO R2

Neil

Jun ’25

WBSC 25

KO R4

Cifuentes

Sep ’24

WCOMBATE

KO R1

Luna

Jul ’24

Last 5 record

4-1

5-0

Current streak

W2

W5

Ranked opps

2 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

3 mo

5 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

JJ Aldrich

Regina Tarin

Post-result bounce

SituationAldrich Tarin

After a loss

5-183%

—

After a win

6-460%

—

Camp length

SituationAldrich Tarin

Short turnaround< 100 days

1-233%

—

Typical camp100–180 days

2-0100%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

8-373%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

JJ Aldrich

Regina Tarin

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Aldrich3W–3L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

Tarin6W–0L by finish · 67% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑55%·Tarin

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑55%·Tarin

F

11th

20%

+63

A

74th

75%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

73%

25%

KO durability

↑5%·Tarin

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

↑5%·Tarin

C

44th

5%

+15

B

60th

0%

Submission defense

↑9%·Tarin

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑9%·Tarin

D

36th

9%

+29

B

64th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	JJ Aldrich	Regina Tarin
Wins
by KO / TKO	3(20%)	4(50%)
by submission	0(0%)	2(25%)
by decision	12(80%)	2(25%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(14%)	0
by submission	2(29%)	0
by decision	4(57%)	0

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

JJ Aldrich

vs

Regina Tarin

6%

1 KO/TKO in 17 bouts

Knockout rate

0%

0 KO/TKO in 1 bout

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

JJ AldrichFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Maycee Barber7y 3mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Mar 23, 2019 · R2 · 3:01
Last time submitted
vs Erin Blanchfield4y 1mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 4, 2022 · R2 · 2:38

Regina TarinFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

JJ Aldrich

130%

R3 vs R1 · 14 bouts reaching R3

Regina Tarin

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Aldrich lifts to 130% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Tarin hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Aldrich ▲ BUILDS

TarinOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Aldrich

Tarinlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Aldrich

Tarinattempts / min

Control time

Aldrich

Tarin% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	JJ Aldrich	4.4	2.8	3.8	0.27	20%	17
R1	Regina Tarin	7.4	7.4	6.6	0.00	0%	1
R2	JJ Aldrich	5.4	4.4	4.7	0.11	15%	17
R2	Regina Tarin	6.4	6.2	6.4	0.00	5%	1
R3	JJ Aldrich	5.7	4.7	4.6	0.16	14%	14
R3	Regina Tarin	11.6	9.2	8.0	0.60	16%	1

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.