Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Rafa Garcia

edge

Rongzhu

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

A

76th

1.9

+19

A+

95th

3.1

Defense

C

54th

61%

+25

D

29th

52%

KO power

D

2 KO

0.1 KD

+29

C

16 KO

0.3 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Both control well

Takedowns landed

A+

88th

3.2

+23

B

65th

1.9

Takedown accuracy

B

68th

46%

+15

A

83rd

63%

Takedown defense

A

72nd

77%

Even

A

80th

83%

Control time

B

60th

3.3 min

+14

C

46th

2.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Garcia

Garcia is the bigger submission threat on Rongzhu

Submission attempts

C

51st

0.4

+33

F

18th

0.0

Sub win rate

A

79th

42%

8 subs

+11

B

68th

21%

6 subs

Submission defense

C

52nd

0%

+12

D

40th

12%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Even

Both hard to finish

Finish rate

D

35th

29%

Even

D

41st

33%

KO durability

C

55th

9%

Even

B

61st

0%

Submission defense

C

51st

0%

+19

D

32nd

17%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

6.7

7.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

6.0

Even

5.9

Pace trend

+21%/rd

+31%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Garcia

Garcia is in better recent form than Rongzhu

Win rate (career)

64%

50%

After a win

67%

50%

Last 5

80%

60%

Win streakW3W2

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Garcia

Garcia has faced the tougher schedule vs Rongzhu

Schedule strength

38%

15%

Win quality

52%

42%

Ranked opponents

2

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

◂ Garcia

Garcia is fresher and more active than Rongzhu

Last bout

4mo

12mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

2

0

Bouts, last 24 mo

4

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Rongzhu ▸

Rongzhu 10 cm · Rongzhu 6y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Rafa GarciavsRongzhu

32

Age

6y

younger

26

5'7"

170cm

Height

4"

taller

5'11"

180cm

70"

178cm

Reach

1"

reach

71"

180cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Rafa GarciaRongzhu

Percentile

Striking/min4.286.02

Accuracy%44%51%

Defense%61%52%

Takedowns/153.21.4

TD defense%77%84%

Submissions/150.40.1

Career rate as a percentile within the lightweight (426 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

UFC betting history

Career

GarciaRafa Garcia

RongzhuRongzhu

1-0100%

As pick'em

—

Notes

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

GarciaRafa Garcia

Stat

RongzhuRongzhu

1

KO / TKO

1

0

Submission

0

1

5

3

Decision

2

1

13:33

Avg fight time

13:25

Rafa Garcia’s splits

vs Rongzhu

vs Southpaw

2-167%

vs Switch

0-10%

vs Shorter reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Rongzhu’s splits

vs Garcia

vs Southpaw

0-10%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

0-30%

vs Shorter reach

0-0no data

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Rafa GarciavsRongzhu

32

Age

6y

younger

26

5'7"

170cm

Height

4"

taller

5'11"

180cm

70"

178cm

Reach

1"

reach

71"

180cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

C

52nd

Even

B

60th

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Garcia’s offensevsRongzhu’s defense

Where Garcia attacks (green = high volume) vs where Rongzhu gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Garcia’s green zones meeting Rongzhu’s red zones are the openings.

Rafa GarciaOffense

Head79%85th503
Body13%46th80
Leg8%45th54

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

RongzhuDefense

Head60%20th279
Body23%15th109
Leg17%21st77

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Garcia — by position

85%Standing

Standing85%542
Clinch10%61
Ground5%34

Rongzhu — absorbed by position

94%Standing

Standing94%438
Clinch4%18
Ground2%9

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Garcia’s offensevsRongzhu’s defense

Head

A+

85th

45.9

+66

F

20th

45.3

Body

C

46th

8.5

+32

F

15th

16.8

Leg

C

45th

6.0

+25

F

21st

12.2

Rongzhu’s offensevsGarcia’s defense

Head

A+

91st

52.0

+59

D

32nd

39.2

Body

C

58th

10.3

+42

F

16th

16.4

Leg

B

65th

9.0

+12

C

52nd

7.3

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Rafa Garcia	top 15% of division45.9	40%	below division average39.2	503
Head	Rongzhu	top 9% of division52.0	45%	well below average45.3	344
Body	Rafa Garcia	around division average8.5	71%	well below average16.4	80
Body	Rongzhu	above division average10.3	78%	well below average16.8	56
Leg	Rafa Garcia	around division average6.0	86%	around division average7.3	54
Leg	Rongzhu	above division average9.0	94%	well below average12.2	51

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Rafa Garcia

Rongzhu

Overall Grappling

Grappling

B

68th

Even

B

64th

Evenly matched grappling — no clear edge either way.

Takedowns

A

85th

3.2

+21

B

64th

1.9

Takedown accuracy

B

68th

46%

32/70

+15

A

83rd

63%

10/16

Takedown defense

A

72nd

77%

27/35

Even

A

80th

83%

15/18

Submission threat

C

54th

0.4

+10

C

44th

0.0

Control time

B

59th

3.3 min

+10

C

49th

2.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Rafa Garcia	Rongzhu
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	3.232	1.910
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	46%32 / 70	63%10 / 16
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	77%27 / 35	83%15 / 18
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.44	0.00
Control time / 15 (min)career total	3.3 min32:31	2.4 min13:01
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min8:17	0.7 min3:43

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Rafa Garcia

43

Schedule Score

Rongzhu

30

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

149 min

11 bouts

Octagon time

69 min

more

80 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

38%

15%

Win quality

52%

42%

Ranked opponents

2

0

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Rafa Garcia	Rongzhu
Ranked 6–15	1-1	0-1
Cross-div ranked	1-0	—
Contender-level	0-2	—
Established	2-0	0-1
Building	1-1	—
Unproven	2-0	3-1

Rafa Garcia — bouts

Rongzhu — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Rafa Garcia

Rongzhu

Garcia — last 5

recent → old

Rongzhu — last 5

recent → old

WUAE

KO R2

Maia

Oct ’22

Last 5 record

4-1

3-2

Current streak

W3

W2

Ranked opps

2 of 5

0 of 5

Layoff

4 mo

12 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Rafa Garcia

Rongzhu

Post-result bounce

SituationGarcia Rongzhu

After a loss

3-175%

2-167%

After a win

4-267%

1-150%

Camp length

SituationGarcia Rongzhu

Typical camp100–180 days

6-275%

2-167%

Long layoff> 180 days

1-150%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Rafa Garcia

Rongzhu

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Garcia10W–1L by finish · 60% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Rongzhu19W–5L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑26%·Rongzhu

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑26%·Rongzhu

F

22nd

53%

+29

C

51st

79%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

48%

18%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

B

69th

4%

Even

A

73rd

3%

Submission defense

↑12%·Garcia

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑12%·Garcia

A

72nd

0%

+22

C

50th

12%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Rafa Garcia	Rongzhu
Wins
by KO / TKO	2(11%)	16(57%)
by submission	8(42%)	6(21%)
by decision	8(42%)	5(18%)
other	1(5%)	1(4%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(25%)	1(17%)
by submission	0(0%)	4(67%)
by decision	3(75%)	1(17%)
other	0(0%)	0(0%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Rafa Garcia

vs

Rongzhu

9%

1 KO/TKO in 11 bouts

Knockout rate

17%

1 KO/TKO in 6 bouts

1

0.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

2

0.6 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

0

0.0 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Rafa GarciaFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Grant Dawson1y 10mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024 · R2 · 1:42
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

RongzhuFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Chris Padilla1y 11mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 7, 2024 · R2 · 4:14
* doctor stoppage · not a clean KO
Last time submitted
vs Ignacio Bahamondes4y 5mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022 · R3 · 1:40

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Rafa Garcia

145%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Rongzhu

190%

R3 vs R1 · 5 bouts reaching R3

Both lean the same way, but Rongzhu leans harder: Rongzhu builds (+31% per round through round 3), Garcia builds (+21% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Garcia lifts to 145% of round-1 output by round 3, Rongzhu 190%.

Garcia ▲ BUILDS

Rongzhu ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Garcia

Rongzhulanded / min

Takedown attempts

Garcia

Rongzhuattempts / min

Control time

Garcia

Rongzhu% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Rafa Garcia	5.2	3.7	3.9	0.35	13%	11
R1	Rongzhu	5.1	4.6	6.4	0.07	8%	6
R2	Rafa Garcia	6.7	4.3	4.6	0.47	26%	11
R2	Rongzhu	6.8	5.0	5.1	0.27	24%	6
R3	Rafa Garcia	8.0	5.0	4.9	0.64	29%	9
R3	Rongzhu	9.5	7.9	5.9	0.28	18%	5

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.