Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Mackenzie Dern

edge

Gillian Robertson

Striking

Robertson ▸

Robertson out-strikes Dern

Effective offense

C

46th

1.4

+9

D

37th

1.3

Defense

D

34th

51%

+39

A

73rd

56%

KO power

F

0 KO

0.1 KD

+11

D

3 KO

0.0 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Robertson ▸

Robertson has the bigger wrestling edge on Dern

Takedowns landed

D

39th

0.9

+50

A+

88th

2.8

Takedown accuracy

F

15th

18%

+38

C

53rd

41%

Takedown defense

F

22nd

38%

Even

F

23rd

39%

Control time

B

69th

4.2 min

+26

A+

95th

7.5 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Even

Both real submission threats

Submission attempts

A+

89th

1.1

Even

A+

87th

0.9

Sub win rate

B

67th

50%

8 subs

Even

B

67th

53%

9 subs

Submission defense

C

52nd

0%

Even

C

48th

4%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Robertson ▸

Robertson is more likely to finish Dern

Finish rate

C

44th

45%

+28

A

72nd

71%

KO durability

D

36th

6%

Even

D

40th

5%

Submission defense

C

52nd

0%

Even

C

48th

5%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over five rounds — Dern's pace builds late

Work rate / min — full fight

5.8

Even

6.1

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.1

6.2

Pace trend

+7%/rd

+1%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

Robertson ▸

Robertson is in better recent form than Dern

Win rate (career)

69%

Even

70%

After a win

60%

Even

62%

Last 5

60%

100%

Win streakW3W5

See full Form →

Schedule

Even

Comparable level of opposition

Schedule strength

73%

56%

Win quality

59%

63%

Ranked opponents

10

9

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Common opps (2)0-22-0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Robertson ▸

Robertson is fresher and more active than Dern

Last bout

8mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

3

Even

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Robertson ▸

Robertson 3 cm · Closed-stance matchup

Mackenzie DernvsGillian Robertson

33

Age

2y

younger

31

5'4"

163cm

Height

1"

taller

5'5"

165cm

63"

160cm

Reach

Even

63"

160cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Mackenzie DernGillian Robertson

Percentile

Striking/min3.472.71

Accuracy%41%48%

Defense%51%56%

Takedowns/150.92.8

TD defense%37%38%

Submissions/151.10.9

Career rate as a percentile within the women's strawweight (27 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Mackenzie Dern

Gillian Robertson

67%

-230

MMA Index model

Unlock

33%

+195

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

DernMackenzie Dern

RobertsonGillian Robertson

1-0100%

As pick'em

—

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

DernMackenzie Dern

Stat

RobertsonGillian Robertson

0

1

KO / TKO

3

1

5

0

Submission

7

1

6

4

Decision

4

14:10

Avg fight time

10:20

Mackenzie Dern’s splits

vs Robertson

vs Southpaw

1-150%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Longer reach

7-370%

vs Shorter reach

3-175%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Gillian Robertson’s splits

vs Dern

vs Southpaw

4-267%

vs Switch

0-10%

vs Longer reach

10-567%

vs Shorter reach

3-175%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Mackenzie DernvsGillian Robertson

33

Age

2y

younger

31

5'4"

163cm

Height

1"

taller

5'5"

165cm

63"

160cm

Reach

Even

63"

160cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

D

32nd

+13

C

45th

Robertson has the striking edge (+13).

Attacking

Dern’s offensevsRobertson’s defense

Where Dern attacks (green = high volume) vs where Robertson gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Dern’s green zones meeting Robertson’s red zones are the openings.

Mackenzie DernOffense

Head75%64th593
Body14%28th110
Leg11%36th83

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Gillian RobertsonDefense

Head77%50th452
Body15%86th90
Leg8%86th48

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Dern — by position

73%Standing

Standing73%573
Clinch10%79
Ground17%134

Robertson — absorbed by position

69%Standing

Standing69%407
Clinch9%55
Ground22%128

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Dern’s offensevsRobertson’s defense

Head

B

64th

38.5

+14

C

50th

33.8

Body

D

28th

8.3

+58

A+

86th

7.9

Leg

D

36th

6.1

+50

A+

86th

4.5

Robertson’s offensevsDern’s defense

Head

D

29th

28.8

+29

B

58th

32.6

Body

F

25th

7.8

+17

D

42nd

14.8

Leg

C

43rd

7.2

+17

D

25th

12.0

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Mackenzie Dern	above division average38.5	36%	above division average32.6	593
Head	Gillian Robertson	well below average28.8	44%	around division average33.8	377
Body	Mackenzie Dern	well below average8.3	74%	below division average14.8	110
Body	Gillian Robertson	well below average7.8	56%	top 14% of division7.9	90
Leg	Mackenzie Dern	below division average6.1	91%	well below average12.0	83
Leg	Gillian Robertson	below division average7.2	71%	top 14% of division4.5	93

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Mackenzie Dern

Gillian Robertson

Overall Grappling

Grappling

C

47th

+21

B

68th

Robertson has the grappling edge (+21).

Takedowns

C

47th

0.9

+39

A+

86th

2.8

Takedown accuracy

F

15th

18%

14/76

+38

C

53rd

41%

38/93

Takedown defense

F

22nd

38%

11/29

Even

F

23rd

39%

7/18

Submission threat

A+

87th

1.1

Even

A

84th

0.9

Control time

B

65th

4.2 min

+29

A+

95th

7.5 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Mackenzie Dern	Gillian Robertson
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.914	2.838
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	18%14 / 76	41%38 / 93
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	38%11 / 29	39%7 / 18
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.116	0.912
Control time / 15 (min)career total	4.2 min63:41	7.5 min102:36
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	2.8 min42:30	2.2 min30:05

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Common opponents

Every UFC opponent both fighters have faced — a direct comparison controlling for matchmaking.

Mackenzie Dern

Gillian Robertson

Record vs common opponents

Edge · Robertson

0-2

0-2

2-0

2-0

Edge · Robertson

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Decision (Unanimous)R3· 5:00

Edge · Robertson

Decision (Unanimous)R5· 5:00

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Mackenzie Dern

73

Schedule Score

Gillian Robertson

61

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

227 min

16 bouts

Octagon time

20 min

more

207 min

20 bouts

Schedule strength

73%

56%

Win quality

59%

63%

Ranked opponents

10

9

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Mackenzie Dern	Gillian Robertson
Champion	0-1	—
Top-5	2-3	2-2
Top-15	6-1	7-4
Established	—	2-0
Unproven	3-0	3-0

Mackenzie Dern — bouts

Gillian Robertson — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Mackenzie Dern

Gillian Robertson

Dern — last 5

recent → old

Robertson — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

3-2

5-0

Current streak

W3

W5

Ranked opps

5 of 5

Even

5 of 5

Layoff

9 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Mackenzie Dern

Gillian Robertson

Title fights

SituationDern Robertson

All title fightschallenger or champ

1-0100%

—

As challengerfor the belt

1-0100%

—

Camp length

SituationDern Robertson

Short turnaround< 100 days

2-167%

0-50%

Typical camp100–180 days

4-267%

7-188%

Long layoff> 180 days

4-267%

6-0100%

Post-result bounce

SituationDern Robertson

After a loss

4-180%

5-183%

After a win

6-460%

8-562%

Rematches

SituationDern Robertson

All rematchesany repeat opponent

2-0100%

—

Revenge boutslost the first

1-0100%

—

Encore boutswon the first

1-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Mackenzie Dern

Gillian Robertson

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Dern8W–1L by finish · 75% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

Robertson12W–2L by finish

R1

R2

R3

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑21%·Robertson

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑21%·Robertson

D

41st

50%

+23

B

64th

71%

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

57%

44%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

D

38th

5%

Even

C

44th

4%

Submission defense

↑4%·Dern

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

↑4%·Dern

B

59th

0%

Even

C

56th

4%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Mackenzie Dern	Gillian Robertson
Wins
by KO / TKO	0(0%)	3(18%)
by submission	8(50%)	9(53%)
by decision	8(50%)	5(29%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(20%)	1(13%)
by submission	0(0%)	1(13%)
by decision	4(80%)	6(75%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Mackenzie Dern

vs

Gillian Robertson

0%

0 KO/TKO in 16 bouts

Knockout rate

15%

3 KO/TKO in 20 bouts

2

0.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

0

0.0 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

6

1.3 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Mackenzie DernFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Jessica Andrade2y 7mo ago
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023 · R2 · 3:15
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Gillian RobertsonFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Maycee Barber6y 8mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019 · R1 · 3:04
Last time submitted
vs Mayra Bueno Silva7y 9mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Sep 22, 2018 · R1 · 4:55

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Mackenzie Dern

109%

R3 vs R1 · 11 bouts reaching R3

Gillian Robertson

119%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Dern: Dern builds (+4% per round through round 3) while Robertson holds steady (+1% per round through round 3). Within fights that reached round 3, Dern lifts to 109% of round-1 output by round 3, Robertson 119%.

Dern ▲ BUILDS

Robertson — HOLDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Dern

Robertsonlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Dern

Robertsonattempts / min

Control time

Dern

Robertson% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Mackenzie Dern	5.6	3.5	3.6	0.29	30%	16
R1	Gillian Robertson	5.8	2.5	3.2	0.49	45%	20
R2	Mackenzie Dern	4.6	3.0	3.3	0.26	19%	12
R2	Gillian Robertson	6.5	2.9	2.2	0.40	60%	16
R3	Mackenzie Dern	6.0	3.5	4.4	0.47	27%	11
R3	Gillian Robertson	5.9	2.9	3.0	0.43	44%	9
R4	Mackenzie Dern	6.1	4.0	6.3	0.40	25%	4
R4	Gillian Robertson	—	—	—	—	—	—
R5	Mackenzie Dern	6.8	3.9	3.5	0.30	51%	4
R5	Gillian Robertson	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.