Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Islam Makhachev

edge

Ian Machado Garry

Striking

Even

Even striking exchange

Effective offense

B

63rd

1.4

+30

A+

93rd

2.6

Defense

A+

89th

61%

+36

C

53rd

52%

KO power

D

5 KO

0.2 KD

Even

D

3 KO

0.4 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

◂ Makhachev

Makhachev has the bigger wrestling edge on Garry

Takedowns landed

A+

86th

3.1

+44

C

42nd

0.9

Takedown accuracy

A

79th

56%

+41

D

37th

31%

Takedown defense

A+

86th

91%

+9

A

76th

80%

Control time

A+

93rd

7.7 min

+62

D

31st

1.7 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

◂ Makhachev

Makhachev is the bigger submission threat on Garry

Submission attempts

A

78th

1.0

+25

C

53rd

0.4

Sub win rate

A

79th

46%

13 subs

+27

C

52nd

0%

0 subs

Submission defense

C

43rd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

◂ Makhachev

Makhachev is more likely to finish Garry

Finish rate

B

58th

65%

+27

D

32nd

30%

KO durability

B

61st

6%

Even

B

64th

0%

Submission defense

C

43rd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

Even

Similar work rate over five rounds — Garry's pace builds late

Work rate / min — full fight

5.7

Even

6.0

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.5

5.0

Pace trend

+2%/rd

+6%/rd

See full Pace →

Form

◂ Makhachev

Makhachev is in better recent form than Garry

Win rate (career)

94%

Even

91%

After a win

94%

89%

Last 5

100%

80%

Win streakW5W2

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Makhachev

Makhachev has faced the tougher schedule vs Garry

Schedule strength

71%

62%

Win quality

100%

82%

Ranked opponents

7

Even

7

Title-holder bouts

1

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Even

Similar activity going in

Last bout

8mo

Even

8mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

1

Even

1

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

3

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Garry ▸

Garry 4" reach · Garry 13 cm · Garry 6y younger · Open-stance matchup

Islam MakhachevvsIan Machado Garry

34

Age

6y

younger

28

5'10"

178cm

Height

5"

taller

6'3"

191cm

71"

179cm

Reach

4"

reach

75"

189cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Islam MakhachevIan Machado Garry

Percentile

Striking/min2.454.78

Accuracy%58%54%

Defense%61%52%

Takedowns/153.10.9

TD defense%91%80%

Submissions/151.00.4

Career rate as a percentile within the welterweight (443 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Moneyline

Implied

Islam Makhachev

Ian Machado Garry

74%

-345

MMA Index model

Unlock

26%

+275

MMA Index model

Unlock

UFC betting history

Career

MakhachevIslam Makhachev

GarryIan Machado Garry

Notes

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

MakhachevIslam Makhachev

Stat

GarryIan Machado Garry

3

1

KO / TKO

3

0

8

0

Submission

0

6

0

Decision

7

1

11:01

Avg fight time

14:45

Islam Makhachev’s splits

vs Garry

vs Southpaw

3-175%

vs Switch

2-0100%

vs Shorter reach

5-0100%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Ian Machado Garry’s splits

vs Makhachev

vs Orthodox

4-180%

vs Switch

3-0100%

vs Longer reach

5-183%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Islam MakhachevvsIan Machado Garry

34

Age

6y

younger

28

5'10"

178cm

Height

5"

taller

6'3"

191cm

71"

179cm

Reach

4"

reach

75"

189cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

62nd

Even

B

61st

Evenly matched striking — no clear edge either way.

Attacking

Makhachev’s offensevsGarry’s defense

Where Makhachev attacks (green = high volume) vs where Garry gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Makhachev’s green zones meeting Garry’s red zones are the openings.

Islam MakhachevOffense

Head71%49th344
Body24%52nd114
Leg6%22nd27

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Ian Machado GarryDefense

Head53%64th246
Body21%52nd96
Leg26%23rd122

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Makhachev — by position

57%Standing

Standing57%278
Clinch18%89
Ground24%118

Garry — absorbed by position

87%Standing

Standing87%403
Clinch7%34
Ground6%27

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Makhachev’s offensevsGarry’s defense

Head

C

49th

26.6

+15

B

64th

25.2

Body

C

52nd

8.8

Even

C

52nd

9.2

Leg

F

22nd

3.2

Even

F

23rd

10.6

Garry’s offensevsMakhachev’s defense

Head

A

79th

38.0

+11

A+

90th

15.1

Body

A

76th

12.8

+12

B

64th

7.8

Leg

A+

86th

15.6

+16

A

71st

4.6

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Islam Makhachev	around division average26.6	51%	top 10% of division15.1	344
Head	Ian Machado Garry	top 21% of division38.0	43%	above division average25.2	437
Body	Islam Makhachev	around division average8.8	89%	above division average7.8	114
Body	Ian Machado Garry	top 24% of division12.8	74%	around division average9.2	148
Leg	Islam Makhachev	well below average3.2	90%	top 29% of division4.6	27
Leg	Ian Machado Garry	top 14% of division15.6	90%	well below average10.6	190

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Islam Makhachev

Ian Machado Garry

Overall Grappling

Grappling

A

83rd

+32

C

51st

Makhachev holds a decisive grappling edge (+32).

Takedowns

A

83rd

3.1

+36

C

47th

0.9

Takedown accuracy

A

79th

56%

41/73

+41

D

37th

31%

10/32

Takedown defense

A+

86th

91%

21/23

+9

A

76th

80%

24/30

Submission threat

A

77th

1.0

+20

C

58th

0.4

Control time

A+

90th

7.7 min

+52

D

37th

1.7 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Islam Makhachev	Ian Machado Garry
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	3.141	0.910
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	56%41 / 73	31%10 / 32
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	91%21 / 23	80%24 / 30
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	1.013	0.44
Control time / 15 (min)career total	7.7 min101:28	1.7 min18:50
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	1.2 min15:18	2.8 min30:29

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Islam Makhachev

91

Schedule Score

Ian Machado Garry

73

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

198 min

18 bouts

Octagon time

36 min

more

162 min

11 bouts

Schedule strength

71%

62%

Win quality

100%

82%

Ranked opponents

7

Even

7

Title-holder bouts

1

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Islam Makhachev	Ian Machado Garry
Champion	2-0	1-0
Top-5	3-0	2-1
Top-15	3-0	3-0
Cross-div champ	2-0	—
Cross-div ranked	2-0	—
Contender-level	1-0	—
Established	1-0	1-0
Building	2-1	1-0
Unproven	1-0	2-0

Islam Makhachev — bouts

Ian Machado Garry — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Islam Makhachev

Ian Machado Garry

Makhachev — last 5

recent → old

Garry — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

5-0

4-1

Current streak

W5

W2

Ranked opps

3 of 5

5 of 5

Layoff

8 mo

Even

8 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Islam Makhachev

Ian Machado Garry

Title fights

SituationMakhachev Garry

All title fightschallenger or champ

6-0100%

—

As championbelt defenses

4-0100%

—

As challengerfor the belt

2-0100%

—

Post-result bounce

SituationMakhachev Garry

After a loss

1-0100%

After a win

15-194%

8-189%

Camp length

SituationMakhachev Garry

Short turnaround< 100 days

—

3-0100%

Typical camp100–180 days

6-186%

3-175%

Long layoff> 180 days

10-0100%

3-0100%

Rematches

SituationMakhachev Garry

All rematchesany repeat opponent

1-0100%

—

Encore boutswon the first

1-0100%

—

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Islam Makhachev

Ian Machado Garry

When their fights end

every UFC finish on the fight clock

Makhachev11W–1L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

Garry3W–0L by finish

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

25:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

UFC bouts only — no verified career split

UFC only

Finish rate

↑35%·Makhachev

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑35%·Makhachev

B

58th

65%

+27

D

32nd

30%

Avg finish time

Even

when they finish, how soon it ends

Even

R2 2:51

R2 2:26

Goes the distance

Even

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Even

33%

73%

KO durability

↑6%·Garry

percent of resolved bouts ending in a genuine KO loss (cut/injury stoppages excluded)

↑6%·Garry

B

61st

6%

Even

B

64th

0%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

C

43rd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Islam Makhachev	Ian Machado Garry
Wins
by KO / TKO	3(18%)	3(30%)
by submission	8(47%)	0(0%)
by decision	6(35%)	7(70%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	1(100%)	0(0%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	0(0%)	1(100%)
Pace
Avg finish time (own wins)	R2 2:51	R2 2:26
Finishes used in avg	11	3

Counts come from the same denormalised win/loss-by-method columns the rest of the site uses. The percentile context on each row is computed against fighters currently assigned to this weight class with at least two resolved UFC bouts.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Islam Makhachev

vs

Ian Machado Garry

17%

3 KO/TKO in 18 bouts

Knockout rate

27%

3 KO/TKO in 11 bouts

4

1.2 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

4

0.9 / 100 head

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

0

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

2

1.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

1

0.4 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Islam MakhachevFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Adriano Martins10y 9mo ago
UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson · Oct 3, 2015 · R1 · 1:46
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Ian Machado GarryFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
Never finished by strikes in the UFC
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Islam Makhachev

126%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Ian Machado Garry

178%

R3 vs R1 · 9 bouts reaching R3

Cardio edge to Garry: Garry builds (+6% per round through round 5) while Makhachev holds steady (+2% per round through round 5). Within fights that reached round 3, Makhachev lifts to 126% of round-1 output by round 3, Garry 178%.

Makhachev — HOLDS

Garry ▲ BUILDSOutput / min

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Makhachev

Garrylanded / min

Takedown attempts

Makhachev

Garryattempts / min

Control time

Makhachev

Garry% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Islam Makhachev	5.2	2.3	1.2	0.34	47%	18
R1	Ian Machado Garry	4.5	3.8	2.8	0.08	12%	11
R2	Islam Makhachev	5.7	2.8	1.6	0.29	50%	11
R2	Ian Machado Garry	5.6	5.0	3.1	0.11	7%	9
R3	Islam Makhachev	5.9	2.5	1.3	0.36	57%	9
R3	Ian Machado Garry	7.6	6.4	2.9	0.20	14%	9
R4	Islam Makhachev	6.4	2.2	1.9	0.57	64%	4
R4	Ian Machado Garry	6.0	3.4	2.6	0.70	12%	2
R5	Islam Makhachev	5.5	2.0	2.5	0.55	46%	3
R5	Ian Machado Garry	6.2	3.2	2.3	0.70	22%	2

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.