Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson Stats & Odds

Matchup read

Where each fighter holds an edge — offense against the opponent's defense.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

edge

Sam Patterson

Striking

◂ Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio out-strikes Patterson

Effective offense

A

84th

2.0

+45

D

39th

1.0

Defense

C

51st

61%

Even

C

45th

50%

KO power

B

17 KO

0.6 KD

Even

C

6 KO

0.2 KD

See full Striking →

Wrestling

Even

Ponzinibbio's takedown defense neutralizes Patterson — no real edge either way (thin sample)

Takedowns landed

D

29th

0.6

+19

C

48th

1.1

Takedown accuracy

27%

50%

Takedown defense

71%

0%

Control time

F

14th

0.8 min

+33

C

47th

2.4 min

See full Grappling →

Submission

Patterson ▸

Patterson is the bigger submission threat on Ponzinibbio

Submission attempts

F

19th

0.0

+62

A

81st

1.1

Sub win rate

B

64th

20%

6 subs

+14

A

79th

50%

7 subs

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

C

42nd

0%

See full Grappling →

Finishing

Patterson ▸

Patterson is more likely to finish Ponzinibbio

Finish rate

C

53rd

58%

+19

A

72nd

100%

KO durability

D

38th

20%

Even

C

44th

17%

Submission defense

C

42nd

0%

Even

D

41st

0%

See full Finishes →

Pace

◂ Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio pushes the higher work rate over the fight

Work rate / min — full fight

5.6

2.7

Work rate / min — rounds 1–2

5.0

2.7

Pace trend+23%/rd—

See full Pace →

Form

Patterson ▸

Patterson is in better recent form than Ponzinibbio

Win rate (career)

60%

67%

After a win

58%

75%

Last 5

40%

80%

Win streakL1L1

See full Form →

Schedule

◂ Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio has faced the tougher schedule vs Patterson

Schedule strength

49%

24%

Win quality

47%

45%

Ranked opponents

7

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

See full Schedule →

Activity

Patterson ▸

Patterson is fresher and more active than Ponzinibbio

Last bout

15mo

4mo

Bouts, last 12 mo

0

2

Bouts, last 24 mo

2

4

See full Activity →

Tale of the tape

Patterson ▸

Patterson 5" reach · Patterson 10 cm · Patterson 9y younger · Closed-stance matchup

Santiago PonzinibbiovsSam Patterson

39

Age

9y

younger

30

6'0"

183cm

Height

4"

taller

6'4"

193cm

73"

185cm

Reach

5"

reach

78"

198cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

See full Tale of the tape →

Core metrics

Each fighter's career rates as a division percentile.

Santiago PonzinibbioSam Patterson

Percentile

Striking/min4.782.62

Accuracy%41%37%

Defense%61%50%

Takedowns/150.60.8

TD defense%71%33%

Submissions/150.01.6

Career rate as a percentile within the welterweight (442 fighters) — further right is better. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Markets

Market comparison

Kalshi · updated 12m ago

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Consensus

23%▲ 2

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Ponzinibbio

Kalshi23¢bestSportsbook+32023%

Sam Patterson

Consensus

77%flat

MMA Index model

Unlock

Best price to bet Patterson

Kalshi78¢bestSportsbook-41077%

Ponzinibbio 23%77% Patterson

$17k vol · $16k OI$10k vol · $10k OI

Sportsbook

Method of victory

KO/TKO

SUB

DEC

Santiago Ponzinibbio

11%+600

3%+2500

8%+900

Sam Patterson

41%-105

20%+300

16%+400

KO/TKO

Submission

Decision

Santiago Ponzinibbio

11%+600

3%+2500

8%+900

Sam Patterson

41%-105

20%+300

16%+400

Total rounds

Line · 1.5

Over48%-105
Under52%-125

UFC betting history

Career

PonzinibbioSantiago Ponzinibbio

PattersonSam Patterson

2-0100%

As pick'em

—

Line movement

Win probability over time

Kalshi78%78%

Sportsbook77%76%1 pt

Notes

Consensus averages Kalshi’s real-money price with the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. “Best price” is the cheaper cost to back a fighter — lower = better value.

Sportsbook percentages are vig-free implied probabilities derived from the American odds — each market is normalised to sum to 100%.

UFC betting history is each fighter’s record when favored vs. an underdog, across their priced UFC bouts. Pick’em = closing consensus within ~2 points of even — too close to call a true favorite.

Career splits

PonzinibbioSantiago Ponzinibbio

Stat

PattersonSam Patterson

7

4

KO / TKO

2

1

0

Submission

2

0

5

4

Decision

0

1

11:20

Avg fight time

4:33

Santiago Ponzinibbio’s splits

vs Patterson

vs Southpaw

1-325%

vs Switch

1-0100%

vs Shorter reach

3-350%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Sam Patterson’s splits

vs Ponzinibbio

vs Southpaw

1-0100%

vs Switch

1-150%

vs Longer reach

1-150%

Highlighted row matches this opponent’s profile — tap it to see who it counts.

Tale of the Tape

The biometric deltas where one side genuinely has an edge.

Santiago PonzinibbiovsSam Patterson

39

Age

9y

younger

30

6'0"

183cm

Height

4"

taller

6'4"

193cm

73"

185cm

Reach

5"

reach

78"

198cm

Edge sizeSlightNotableMajor

Striking matchup

Each fighter's offense against the other's defense, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Overall Striking

Striking

B

65th

+19

C

46th

Ponzinibbio has the striking edge (+19).

Attacking

Ponzinibbio’s offensevsPatterson’s defense

Where Ponzinibbio attacks (green = high volume) vs where Patterson gets hit (red = vulnerable) — Ponzinibbio’s green zones meeting Patterson’s red zones are the openings.

Santiago PonzinibbioOffense

Head71%89th765
Body13%54th136
Leg17%74th182

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share of strikes

Sam PattersonDefense

Head65%44th55
Body11%59th9
Leg25%31st21

Color = division rank · green elite → red low · % = share absorbed · partly opponent-dependent

Ponzinibbio — by position

95%Standing

Standing95%1,029
Clinch2%20
Ground3%34

Patterson — absorbed by position

85%Standing

Standing85%72
Clinch0%0
Ground15%13

Each lane: the attacker’s strike rate (offense) vs the other’s rate absorbed (defense), graded on the division. The bar leans toward whoever wins the exchange — longer + greener = a bigger, higher-quality edge.

Ponzinibbio’s offensevsPatterson’s defense

Head

A+

89th

47.1

+45

C

44th

32.7

Body

C

54th

9.1

Even

B

59th

8.4

Leg

A

74th

11.4

+42

D

31st

9.3

Patterson’s offensevsPonzinibbio’s defense

Head

C

55th

29.2

+27

D

28th

39.4

Body

C

44th

7.8

+23

F

21st

14.2

Leg

C

55th

7.0

+43

F

12th

13.6

Full breakdown — all zones, both views

Zone	Fighter	Landed / 15	Accuracy	Absorbed / 15	Career landed
Head	Santiago Ponzinibbio	top 11% of division47.1	35%	well below average39.4	765
Head	Sam Patterson	above division average29.2	33%	below division average32.7	53
Body	Santiago Ponzinibbio	around division average9.1	57%	well below average14.2	136
Body	Sam Patterson	below division average7.8	60%	above division average8.4	9
Leg	Santiago Ponzinibbio	top 26% of division11.4	89%	bottom of the division13.6	182
Leg	Sam Patterson	above division average7.0	60%	below division average9.3	9

Per-15-minute rates are sourced from UFCStats fight totals across each fighter’s UFC career. Division percentile is computed against every UFC fighter who has competed in this weight class with at least two recorded bouts. Lower “absorbed” values are better — the percentile is inverted so “top of division” always means better outcome.

Grappling matchup

Takedowns, submission threat, and control, per 15 minutes.

UFC only

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Sam Patterson

Overall Grappling

Grappling

D

38th

+23

B

62nd

Patterson has the grappling edge (+23).

Takedowns

D

36th

0.6

+22

C

57th

1.1

Takedown accuracy

D

34th

27%

9/33

50%

2/4

Takedown defense

B

64th

71%

27/38

0%

0/1

Submission threat

D

38th

0.0

+36

A

74th

1.1

Control time

F

21st

0.8 min

+33

C

54th

2.4 min

Full breakdown — career grappling totals

Metric	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Sam Patterson
Takedowns landed / 15career takedowns	0.69	1.12
Takedown accuracycareer landed / attempted	27%9 / 33	50%2 / 4
Takedown defensecareer stopped / faced	71%27 / 38	0%0 / 1
Submission attempts / 15career attempts	0.00	1.12
Control time / 15 (min)career total	0.8 min11:37	2.4 min4:27
Time controlled by opponent / 15 (min)career total	0.7 min10:58	0.5 min0:53

UFCStats career rates, per 15 minutes. Takedown defense = stops ÷ attempts. Under 8 attempts shown ungraded.

Schedule Score

Opponent quality, ranked against every UFC fighter (≥3 bouts).

UFC only

Santiago Ponzinibbio

48

Schedule Score

Sam Patterson

35

Schedule Score

UFC experienceTotal octagon time + bouts

227 min

20 bouts

Octagon time

200 min

more

27 min

6 bouts

Schedule strength

49%

24%

Win quality

47%

45%

Ranked opponents

7

1

Title-holder bouts

0

Even

0

Per-tier records + bout-by-bout

Per-tier records

Tier	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Sam Patterson
Top-5	1-0	—
Ranked 6–15	2-8	0-1
Cross-div champ	1-0	—
Contender-level	2-0	—
Established	1-0	—
Building	3-0	2-1
Unproven	2-0	2-0

Santiago Ponzinibbio — bouts

Sam Patterson — bouts

0–100 ratings. Schedule strength = average opponent quality faced; Win quality = quality of opponents beaten. Composite = 65% schedule + 35% wins, scored on rank-at-time-of-fight.

Recent form

Last five pro bouts and recent opposition.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Sam Patterson

Ponzinibbio — last 5

recent → old

Patterson — last 5

recent → old

Last 5 record

2-3

4-1

Current streak

L1

Even

L1

Ranked opps

2 of 5

1 of 5

Layoff

15 mo

4 mo

Career cohorts

Each fighter’s record by situation, over every completed UFC bout. Read down a fighter’s column; bold marks the better win rate (3+ bouts).

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Sam Patterson

Camp length

SituationPonzinibbio Patterson

Typical camp100–180 days

7-464%

—

Long layoff> 180 days

5-363%

4-180%

Post-result bounce

SituationPonzinibbio Patterson

After a loss

5-271%

1-0100%

After a win

7-558%

3-175%

Finishing & durability

How fights end for each — finish rate and durability.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Sam Patterson

When their fights end

every pro finish on the fight clock

Ponzinibbio23W–5L by finish · 61% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

Patterson12W–2L by finish · 70% in round 1

R1

R2

R3

R4

0:00

5:00

10:00

15:00

20:00

Win(above)Loss(below)KO / TKOSubmissionPosition = when the fight ended

Finish & durability rates

Full professional career

Finish rate

↑16%·Patterson

percent of wins ending by KO or submission

↑16%·Patterson

C

55th

77%

+24

A

79th

93%

Goes the distance

Both finishers

percent of resolved bouts going to a decision (style read, not quality)

Both finishers

28%

12%

KO durability

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending in a KO/TKO loss

Even

D

37th

13%

Even

D

41st

12%

Submission defense

Even

percent of resolved bouts ending by submission loss

Even

B

67th

0%

Even

B

67th

0%

Full method breakdown

Outcome	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Sam Patterson
Wins
by KO / TKO	17(57%)	6(43%)
by submission	6(20%)	7(50%)
by decision	7(23%)	1(7%)
Losses
by KO / TKO	5(56%)	2(67%)
by submission	0(0%)	0(0%)
by decision	4(44%)	1(33%)

Full professional career method splits, graded against the full-pro division distribution. Career KO losses are the total — clean knockouts and cut/injury stoppages can’t be separated outside the UFC corpus. Finish-time pace is UFC-only.

KO history

Knockout power and chin durability, head-to-head (UFC).

Santiago Ponzinibbio

vs

Sam Patterson

35%

7 KO/TKO in 20 bouts

Knockout rate

29%

2 KO/TKO in 7 bouts

11

1.4 / 100 head

Knockdowns dealt

1

1.9 / 100 head

4

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

Clean KO losses

1

cuts / injury TKOs excluded

7

1.1 / 100 head

Knockdowns absorbed

0

0.0 / 100 head

Chin bars use a league scale: green = clean record, red = bottom ~10% of UFC fighters (4+ KO losses · 6+ knockdowns absorbed).

Santiago PonzinibbioFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Daniel Rodriguez1y 2mo ago
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 3, 2025 · R3 · 1:12
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Sam PattersonFinish timeline

Last time KO'd
vs Yanal Ashmouz3y 4mo ago
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023 · R1 · 1:15
Last time submitted
Never submitted in the UFC

Pace & fade

Round-by-round work rate, and whether they fade.

UFC only

Santiago Ponzinibbio

203%

R3 vs R1 · 14 bouts reaching R3

Sam Patterson

—

< 2 bouts to R3

Ponzinibbio lifts to 203% of round-1 output by round 3 (within fights reaching round 3). Patterson hasn't reached the third round in enough UFC bouts to read a pace pattern yet.

Ponzinibbio ▲ BUILDS

PattersonOutput / min

Faded points are drawn from a single bout that reached that round, so they’re less reliable than the solid points averaged over many fights.

Rounds backed by fewer than 2 bouts are drawn smaller and dimmed with an n= count — a deep round seen in one or two fights is a thin sample, not a settled rate. Per-round bout counts are in the breakdown below.

Full per-round breakdown — both fighters

What drives the pace · per round

The composite output line above blends these three inputs. Splitting them out shows whether a fighter’s work rate is built on striking volume, takedown pressure, or top control — and which input fades.

Sig. strikes landed

Ponzinibbio

Pattersonlanded / min

Takedown attempts

Ponzinibbio

Pattersonattempts / min

Control time

Ponzinibbio

Patterson% of round

Round	Fighter	Output / min	Sig landed / min	Sig absorbed / min	TD att / min	Control	Bouts
R1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	4.1	3.8	4.4	0.07	2%	20
R1	Sam Patterson	4.4	3.6	3.6	0.12	10%	6
R2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	6.0	5.1	4.3	0.22	6%	15
R2	Sam Patterson	1.0	0.4	2.0	0.00	15%	1
R3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	6.7	5.9	5.5	0.18	8%	14
R3	Sam Patterson	4.0	1.2	2.4	0.40	41%	1
R4	Santiago Ponzinibbio	4.6	4.2	4.6	0.00	8%	1
R4	Sam Patterson	—	—	—	—	—	—

Output / minis the headline work rate — significant strikes landed, plus 3 per takedown attempt, plus one per 15 seconds of control — so a takedown-and-grind round isn’t scored as idle the way bare striking volume would. The remaining columns are its components. Per-round rates use UFCStats per-round data (available for ~95% of bouts since 2008). Each round’s rates are averaged only over bouts that reached that round, so the bout count shrinks as rounds deepen. The final round of a finished fight is pro-rated by its actual length — a 2:30 stoppage counts as 2.5 minutes, not five — so an early finish doesn’t distort the per-minute pace.